About a month ago, Jackass supporters were trying to stir the pot by putting up Mitt Romney as the only candidate Obama was afraid of. This was when Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry were contenders in the polls. Now that both have fallen in the polls and only “impossible” candidate Herman Cain is in the lead, the Republicans are now touting the idea that Romney is inevitable.
Governor Romney is a real establishment Republican. He’s also fairly conservative, especially on the Tea Party-friendly tax issues. The problem is that a lot of the base isn’t as interested in issues as they are in the kind of power structure that tends to take the power out of the hands of the voters. Plus, Romney is a flip-flopper and he thinks money is the sole determinant of electoral victory.
His organization goes back to the last decade, where Republican control of Congress created a lot of incumbents who took the Contract with America and rewrote it as a contract with big donors. The party lost big, but the organization of party insiders made sure they were okay. Romney is using a lot of those old hands, especially since Perry is the only other one with a lot of corporate connections.
Obama’s minions used a strategy toward Democrats in 2008 that told them to vote for him or get the awful McCain-Palin ticket. They were evil because they were Republicans. Forget the fact that McCain and Palin were some of the most outspoken Republicans on party corruption. Obama never criticized the corrupt money in the Democratic Party, especially when he was taking millions from untraceable donors.
Romney has a strategy for winning the Republicans nomination. Now that much of the delegates will be distributed proportionally, he can gain about 1/3 of the primary vote in each state and slowly run out the funds of other candidates. Even if an opponent “wins” a state, Romney will be sure to get a significant piece of the delegation. If he gets the nomination, 2010 tends to show that the Tea Party is loyal enough to the Republican Party to pick the guy who’s not Obama. You can’t say the same for the establishment. Look at Mike Castle and Lisa Murkowski.
My opinion has been that Mitt Romney will have two major competitors. This is also Romney’s best chance. His threshold in the polls is about 40% among Republicans. When it comes to a binary choice between him and Obama, he’s got just enough “support” to win. If he’s the nominee next November, a lot of people will vote for him, wishing they didn’t have to. Now’s the time to make sure that doesn’t have to happen.
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