Sarah Speculation

Trying to shackle a grizzly never ends well.

Over at C4P, Sarah Palin supporters are still trying to figure out what the hell happened. C4Peep IsraeliCojones has been posting this theory, which fits events so neatly that I am quoting it even though it’s not TinFoil Tuesday yet:

I wish you would listen to my affectionate advice: stop torturing yourselves, because what happened is pretty simple. I will repost here what happened in the last days of September and will follow with a few points:

The events:

September 20: Palin within five points of Obama in new Marist poll
September 21: Beginning of the chatter about a Palin’s run as a third-party candidate (!).
September 22: Last GOP’s candidates debate: Perry’s flaming out after being wildly hyped.
September 24: Cain “unexpectedly” wins FL’s straw poll in a landslide. Duh.
September 26: Tea Party Nation founder endorses Gingrich (“He’s electable”). Duuuuh.
September 26: Sarah Palin Threatens to Sue ‘Rogue’ Book Publisher
September 27: Roger Ailes: Fox News is making a “course correction”
September 27: Palin’s “sudden silence”
September 27: Greta’s interview
September 28: Cain: “I couldn’t support Perry as the nominee.”
September 28: Rush: “I don’t think Palin is going to run”
September 30: The date comes to pass without a Palin’s announcement.
September 30: Florida moves its primary to January 31st.
September 30: Talks in NH about moving their primary too.
October 3: South Carolina moves its primary date to January 21st
October 4: News come out that a law firm linked to SarahPAC has been making early-state ballot inquiries
October 4: Christie not running
October 4: Georgette Mosbacher, the RNC Finance Co-Chair and big GOP fundraiser says: “Now we know who it is who will be our nominee” (Romney). No mention of Palin. She already knew.
October 5: Chatter about a Palin’s independent run, again (which, as expected, she shuts down).
October 5: Palin announces she’s not running.

1) Before September 20, Palin was running. She made her decision when she resigned and everybody was on board in the family (do you remember that she said once that she would one day tell all about that “Hell Yeah!” during this family reunion when she announced her resignation and what she intended to do. There is a sentence missing in GR, and it’s quite transparent). So she was running and everything she’s done since then spells it.

2) Palin knew that she was unbeatable in the primary and the general. The establishment knew it too.

3) Knowing that she was about to declare her run, they approached her with a deal (they’ve probably started those maneuvers since the beginning of September), that was in the end unacceptable for her (“I’m not for sale”).

4) She goes on Greta, rather fired up, and says that she doesn’t want to be shackled by a campaign and (I’m paraphrasing) to be driven to say what handlers, or donors or pundits want her to say instead of being free of speaking about the real problems America is facing, call it like she sees it, and initiate real change. And she repeats that she can win, and that she wouldn’t have gone that far in her thinking about running if she wasn’t convinced of that fact.

5) When she rejected their deal, they threatened to completely change the GOP’s primary schedule, in order to shut the door on her face. They probably also told her that they would do anything to get her defeated. And that they would made her life a living hell.

6) She thought about the feasibility of a campaign with a new schedule (her lawyers inquiring in the early States) and concluded that she couldn’t do it, especially since her own Party was determined to fight her tooth and nails.

7) Four days after the first change in the primary schedule, and following Christie’s predictable announcement, Mosbacher let everybody know that “they have their nominee” (Romney) as if Palin wasn’t even a factor.

8) So she announced that she wasn’t running for the GOP nomination.

My own (pure) speculations:

1) Rush is right when he says that the GOP establishment will try to wrap a very quick Romney win in the Primaries. Cain will be seen as potential VP, in order to fool the Conservative base.

2) Palin is divorcing from the GOP as it is now (a corrupt bastards club): she knows that she was stolen the nomination and the Presidency by those shenanigans and she won’t go down quietly. She won’t endorse anyone, above all not Romney, and won’t participate in anything related to these primaries. On the contrary, she will roam the country and continue to speak to as diversified audiences as possible and share her vision for America. I wouldn’t be surprised if she did that quite intensively, while the Clowns are busy ridiculing themselves a little more.

3) This disengagement from the Primaries is absolutely crucial for several reasons:

a) The shenanigans and the extent of corruption within the GOP will be exposed in a few bombshells; when it will become apparent that the fix was in even before any election took place, the base will go from disgusted to furious;

b) The rank-and-file Republicans and the Conservatives who were poo-poo-ing Palin at every turn are going to find out the hard way what a “life without Palin” really means and they are not going to like it.

c) The apparent “boycott” from so many blogs on the Right (as if we could buy that the most talked about woman in America and the only Conservative leader could become a non-entity simply by decree) shouldn’t sadden anyone here: it plays in her favor: she will be able to deploy her future strategy under the radar, since they all suppose that she doesn’t have any (lol).

d) Any “Draft Palin” movement must be completely separated from her.

5) As soon as Romney will win the nomination:

a) the Dems are going to destroy him and I mean “DESTROY”. From the get-go, with a disgusted and demobilized base that despises him to the core, as well as the GOP Machine, he will be polled as the loser against Obama (which he will be anyway if Palin doesn’t enter the General).

b) the “Draft Palin” Movement will grow exponentially.

c) she will start endorsing and campaigning for the Senate and Congress.

6) As a last resort, she will then be approached by Romney to get on the ticket as VP; she will tell him to go f*ck himself (no she won’t, she’ll say “thanks but no, thanks”, but a girl can dream, no?)

7) If the Draft Palin Movement is important enough, she’ll enter the General as a Reaganite Republican to defeat Barack Obama, which for her, has always been the goal, as opposed to her corrupted Party.

And she will win.

You’ve read it first. Keep the faith. Despair is not an option.

PS: By the way, I’m rather surprised that some here seem to think that Palin would give up so easily on Country. Not that I don’t respect their opinions, but come on: anyone imagining that she would go fishing while Obama is on the verge of winning… It’s not even conceivable.

The first item 3 that I bolded sounds a lot like what many of us think happened to Hillary, right? Knowing she would run, in W’s 2nd term the TPTB sounded her out to see if she would be amenable to their agenda. When she told them to take a hike, they started marketing a junior Senator as the Most Historic Suit ever. The rest is shitstory.

Back to today, this also ties in with people wondering what the heck is going on with Perry. Has the establishment also told Perry to throw the match or else?

I don’t know if the nascent Draft Palin or Write-In Palin movements will gain traction. I just know this –  Romney and Obama are both establishment anointed picks. They will be mirrors of each other in policy and policy effects. So anything that attempt to thwart either or both of them is worth supporting – whether it’s Draft Palin or Draft Hilary or everyone just jump at the same time and cause an earthquake.

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37 Responses to Sarah Speculation

  1. myiq2xu says:

    Re: Perry

    If you are a good loser to the GOP establishment pick you can be anointed as the next frontrunner.

    Reagan, GHW Bush, Bob Dole, and McCain all played ball.

    Maybe Perry is angling for next in line?

      • crawdad says:

        Republicans are big on loyalty – they expect it and reward it.

        Democrats will betray and backstab each other in a heartbeat.

        Not all of them – the Clintons are big on loyalty too.

        • susiepuma says:

          BS – Republicans stab you in the back while smiling right at you – I’ve always felt that way about Repubs – Dems stab while smiling at you too but they do face to face and you can try to duck the knife

          If Republicans were so damm loyal – Sarah would be the ‘next’ in line, after all, she was the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2008 – what the hell were any of the rest of them?

        • votermom says:

          She wasn’t just the 2008 VP nominee, she was the de facto leader of the opposition from 2009 to present, and the reason for the 2010 House upset.
          But she can’t be next because 1) she’s a woman and 2)she’s not for sale.

        • Erica says:

          VM- Hillary wasn’t for sale either. I think that’s why the Dems trashed her. The same may have been true of McCain to some degree.

  2. yttik says:

    I hate being a Debbie Downer, seems to be my lot in life, but both the draft Hillary and draft Palin movements are lost causes. I go visit my favorite liberal blogs, they’re all about waiting for Hillary to primary Obama at the last moment. My favorite conservative blogs, they’re all about how Palin is going to sneak in at the last moment and take the general.

    I’m really sorry, I mean downright depressed about it, but it isn’t possible. We are a two party country and the people don’t really chose the candidates, the two parties select their nominees. At the very most, the people get some input, but very little. Each state has different election rules, but from my work with third parties and write in candidates, I can tell you it’s rigged. There is no way to break the stranglehold the two parties have and the amount of control they have over who their nominee will be.They write the rules and they wrote them to be sure they couldn’t be challenged. In many states, if you aren’t nominated by a political party in a primary, you are not allowed to be in a general election. People can vote for you, but the votes won’t even be counted.

    • I agree. It ain’t going to happen. And I take Sarah at her word that she won’t run as an independent because it would only ensure Obama wins.

      • bevwky says:

        I honestly don’t believe she intends to run at this point – but not necessarily for the reasons in the post – but I also keep telling people that she did not say she wouldn’t run as an independent. She said a THIRD PARTY run would guarantee that Obama was elected. Independent, however, is not the same thing as third party – not if the GOP has already messed everything up by then.

    • WMCB says:

      I agree yttik. I understand the longing, believe me I do. But Hillary is not going to primary Obama. NEVER. Not EVER. They would likely have a hard time convincing her to run even if he dropped out, much less primary him.

      Sarah is not going to run 3rd party in 2012. She isn’t. She said she would not, very clearly. I couldn’t rule out 3rd party for her in the future, but in 2012? Not gonna happen.

      I’ve been watching politics all my life. I’m a junkie for the horserace on both sides. Despite how important it is, it is also my baseball. I may root for a certain player, but I’m not an emotional child. I don’t insist that team X can still win the World Series this year, or that player B is going to suddenly bat 400, when it is very evident that they can’t, and won’t.

      I don’t like our political realities – how races are won, the place of money in it, the demographics, the power of the parties, etc. But I’m not in the habit of denying realities because I don’t like them.

      • crawdad says:

        You’ve obviously been brainwashed by Glenn Beck

      • DandyTiger says:

        I agree as well. She simply isn’t going to run. I think she will continue with what she’s doing, work for and endorse other races, and do the talking, touring thing. I would be surprised if she endorsed the GOP presidential candidate before it’s a done deal. And I’d be surprised if she didn’t endorse the candidate when it’s clear it’s over. Certainly by the convention.

        Her staying out of the race and not making too many waves keeps her in the game and still somewhat friendly with the party machine. They don’t want her, but they’re not at war with her either. I don’t think she wants or is ready to go to war with them. And she probably wants to keep her options open for other positions including VP or 2016.

        Hillary ran into a similar thing. The party machine didn’t want her. She pushed anyway and actually won the primaries. But the party machine had other ideas. Hillary is still loyal to the party and is playing ball. But next year she’s out.

        I’d also say, though it’s cringe worthy on both sides of the isle, but I think in both cases if the party pushed really hard and made the case that it was make or break for the win, each would go for the VP slots.

        • votermom says:

          I think in both cases if the party pushed really hard and made the case that it was make or break for the win, each would go for the VP slots.
          Thank God Hillary dodged that bullet, at least.

          The only bright side to a President Romney 2012 is that it opens the door to President Hillary 2016.
          I just don’t know how we survive until then.

        • DandyTiger says:

          I’m not sure how we’ll survive by then either. I don’t think Hillary would run in ’16 though. I think she really is retiring from elections.

          It will be fun to see who the party machine props up next… Not.

        • votermom says:

          Gawd, who is there to run next? Apart from the Clintons, the whole Dem leadership stinks worse than rotten fish.

        • DeniseVB says:

          Gawd, who is there to run next? Apart from the Clintons, the whole Dem leadership stinks worse than rotten fish

          I’m looking at the Governors. Please, no more from the House and Senate, unless they’ve been a gov. Mark Warner? He was my original favorite for 2008 back in 2006 :) Let the vetting process begin lest we’re stuck with another Dreamy McCandidate in ’12.

    • votermom says:

      It is rigged.
      Doesn’t mean that we can’t be obstreperous about it.
      Dust off the pitchforks.
      Make them pay.
      After all, the more votes they have to buy, the more money gets back into circulation – presto – non-taxpayer stimulus! :D

      • DeniseVB says:

        I’m so mad I just want to go Occupy something, like a bar ;)

        It does sound like what happened to Hillary, and many shared the same optimism as the C4Per does.

        Then Hillary endorsed Teh Won and took a position in his administration. As Sarah may very well do for Romney :( This time I won’t be caught by surprise.

    • djmm says:

      I would not count either woman out for 2016. Sadly for our country, I do not think either will run in 2012. I still might write in Hillary. Still thinking about my options.

      djmm

  3. I heard Sarah talk to Beck once. So she must be brainwashed then. Haven’t you heard.

  4. foxyladi14 says:

    we do love the impossible dream… :)

  5. bevwky says:

    I’m tending more to believe that she decided not to run for exactly the reasons she said. Not the family stuff, per se. But to get lower level people elected. OTOH, I do believe something changed her mind about the best way to accomplish her goals which is why the scenario(s) outlined in the post is definitely within the realm of possibility.

    • DeniseVB says:

      It’s why I wanted Hillary to stay in the Senate with BO’s cajones firmly in her lady grasp :D Though SOS is an awesome appointment, we needed her HERE.

      • djmm says:

        She could have worked on domestic as well as foreign issues, in the Senate. But the boys club in the Democratic Senate would have tried to block her at every turn. At at least we had her as SOS.

        djmm

  6. 1539days says:

    Romney’s sole advantage is big money donors. The party apparatus might help, but his appeal is limited. Mike Huckabee was able to keep Romney away from McCain just by staying in the race and getting a few percentage points. People in the party would have to wage an “Anyone but Romney” campaign to have an impact.

    I’m fairly certain that this nomination would occur through the sheer will of Republican party bosses. Every single GOP candidate who’s dropped out has endorsed Romney (Palin wasn’t technically in). I see this already as a three-way race with Romney (filling the McCain role of 2008) Perry (the new Romney) and Cain (the new Huckabee) I fear that a Romney nomination is going to have the same effect on the Republican base that McCain had.

  7. Three Wickets says:

    The prospect of an Obama Romney election is nauseating. The legacy parties don’t deserve to have things that easy, not for this cycle. A great scenario would be Palin and Bloomberg jumping in as independents in the general. Bloomberg would peel creative class votes from both Obama and Romney, Palin would do better than Romney among conservatives and independents. It would be a real interesting race. Throw in Ron Paul for good measure. The people deserve a wide open election.

  8. Three Wickets says:

    ‘I have no interest to pursue that anymore': Hillary Clinton yearns for private life after 2012 presidential election Good for her. Obama needs to lose next year, and the Democratic Party needs to be rehabilitated.

  9. bevwky says:

    Okay, whoa, this is the best I’ve seen so far about Palin’s decision:

    “Sarah Palin, the ‘We The People’ President – Encouragement and Observations from England”

    http://conservatives4palin.com/2011/10/sarah-palin-the-we-the-people-president-encouragem%e2%80%8bent-and-observatio%e2%80%8bns-from-england.html

    There are several paragraphs alone that stand out as a major indictment of modern American politics but I can’t even pick which one to quote. Read it. It has less to do with Palin and more to do with the process. She simply happens to be the focus. I have to say it may take me several read-troughs just to digest it all. Like I said, whoa.

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