I imagine Tim Pawlenty is kicking himself for dropping out as early as he did. While he may have the inside track to be Romney’s running mate, he had a decent chance at the whole enchilada. Tim may have been mild and forgettable, his ads were not.
I would totally buy whatever was being sold in that ad. When Pawlenty dropped out, that producer started working for Rick Perry. It sure seemed to work. Of all the Perry ads so far, this one is my favorite. It really took it to Obama.
So, what do you do when you have the most cinematic ads on TV? If you’re Rick Perry, you screw up and make the second most hated video on YouTube. I heard this was not a unanimous decision in the Perry campaign.
Perry may be on the rise, yet. He performed well in the last debate, landed the most serious blow to Mitt Romney and managed not to do anything glaringly stupid. Plus, he was the only one to actually say something positive about another candidate when asked. The campaign was able to get about 2 minutes of it into another ad making him look like he left everyone in the dust.
At least they look presidential for a couple of minutes.
I’ve now been asked that question by a lot of conservatives. It’s not that I’m the go-to guy for that sort of question. Rather, one gets the sense that many “establishment” conservatives are asking everybody that question — in staff meetings, at the chiropodist, even at the McDonald’s drive-through.
[...]
Not surprising then that there are more knives out for Gingrich than in a Ginsu infomercial. For instance, former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu has been nurturing a grievance against Gingrich since he was White House chief of staff in 1990. For two decades he’s been like Inigo Montoya in “The Princess Bride.” “Hello, my name is John Sununu. You destroyed my boss’ presidency; prepare to die.”
But Sununu’s barbs bounce off Gingrich, as has George Will’s more brutal rhetorical artillery fire. Conventional weapons are useless against Newtzilla.
First, what are you going to say about the guy that people don’t already know? Just as it’s OK to speak openly about the fact that Darth Vader is Luke Skywalker’s father, Gingrich’s backstory provides no spoilers. Herman Cain was undone because people were still forming their first impressions of him. Everything bad about Gingrich — the flip-flops, the wives, the ego — is known. Once voters have convinced themselves they can overlook that stuff, it’s hard to change their minds simply by repeating it.
Moreover, conservative voters distrust the conservative establishment — variously defined — almost as much as they distrust the liberal establishment (that’s why David Brooks, the notoriously moderate New York Times columnist, leveled the most vicious charge he could against Gingrich: He touted their similarities!)
Also, Gingrich benefits enormously by being the last obvious “not-Romney” candidate. Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Cain were all well to Gingrich’s right, and many voters assume that Gingrich is being attacked for the same reason that his not-Romney predecessors were.
Way back in 1992 we first heard rumors that the Big Dawg was an Arkansas Leghound. Ever since then it has been tabloid grist and the fodder for late-night jokes. In the meantime Bill Clinton won two elections.
So when the story broke in January 1998 that Slick Willie didn’t come clean in his Paula Jones deposition, people were somewhat less than shocked. The GOP (led by Newt Gingrich) thought they finally found the smoking gun that would end Bill Clinton’s career. But most voters didn’t care anymore. Bill was innoculated against that kind of attack.
So is Newt Gingrich.
Thirteen years ago he left office in disgrace, with enough ethical and moral baggage to end several careers. But he didn’t go away.
Now he’s back from the dead, and his baggage has been turned to armor. It says a lot about Mitt Romney that so many Republicans now view Newt Gingrich as their savior.
I got a feeling I’m not gonna get a happy ending no matter how it turns out.
STANDARD DISCLAIMER:
This is not an endorsement of Newt Gingrich. This is an assessment of his political skills and chances of winning. If you held a gun to my head and told me to choose between Newt and Obama, I would tell you to pull the trigger.
After observing President Obama for the last three years, it has become obvious to me that the President might prefer to be a university professor rather than do the job he holds today. While he may not realize that he feels this way, the evidence is very clear to those who work with or watch him closely.
[...]
Many on the Democratic side wish Hillary, Governor Jerry Brown (CA), Governor Martin O’Malley (MD) or Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY) were running instead, but the President still has time to learn a thing or two from these skilled politicians. I’ll still take Professor Obama over the “goat rodeo clowns” the Republican field offers, but I fear the overall student body – American voters – will give him a failing grade next November if he doesn’t improve his performance .
Breathe in. Exhale. Relax. Om mani padme hum.
That was Dennis Cardoza, my POS congressional representative.
Today, United States Congressman Jim Costa (CA-20) and United States Congressman Dennis Cardoza endorsed Barack Obama for president. Congressman Cardoza previously supported Senator Hillary Clinton.
[...]
Congressman Cardoza said, “This is the most important election of my lifetime. While I continue to greatly respect and admire Senator Clinton and feel she has made history with her campaign, I believe that Senator Obama will inevitably be our party’s nominee for President. He has proven himself to be a thoughtful, knowledgeable, and inspirational leader and will take America in a new direction, which we desperately need.
[...]
“I am deeply concerned about the contentious primary campaign and controversy surrounding the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan – two states Democrats need to win in November. I will not support changing the rules in the fourth quarter of this contest through some convoluted DNC rules committee process. Yet, we must find a resolution to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates so these states’ voters are represented at the Convention. I believe we need to avoid this potentially divisive situation by uniting behind one nominee and bringing the party together immediately. Therefore, I have made the decision to support Senator Obama at the Democratic Convention in my role as a super delegate.”
So much for my rule about drink booze before lunch.
Sarah Palin yesterday called for legislation to keep Congress honest. She called the Brown & Gillibrand legislation weak and full of loopholes. An excerpt below:
Does anyone really think the SEC under current law will have the courage to investigate the insider trading in Congress? Remember that this corruption (and failure to deal with it) encompasses both sides of the aisle. We fool ourselves thinking we can trust an agency dependent on Congress for its budget to investigate Congress.
I hate the idea of more laws, but because our politicians have shown a failure of ethical leadership, we must reassert the rule of law through strong new legislation that holds Congress accountable and prevents retaliation against whistle-blowers and regulatory agencies investigating corruption. Legislation has been put forward, but there are serious concerns that these bills contain major loopholes in stopping congressional insider trading and the gifting of IPO stocks from companies seeking to influence policy. In fact, Robert Khuzami, the SEC’s director of enforcement, testified that the bills as written only make stock transactions related to pending or prospective legislation illegal, not any other insider information trading; and they only cover stock transactions, not options trades, exchange traded funds or mutual funds.
The bills by Sens. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., are particularly weak. Members of Congress should disclose all trading activities immediately, not after 90 days as their bills propose. More immediate disclosure deadlines (similar to the strict deadlines corporate executives adhere to when trading certain amounts of stock) are imperative for real transparency.
Members of Congress must be required to put their assets into blind and “deaf” trusts. Deaf because we must make it illegal both to trade on non-public government information and to pass on such information. It does no good to set up a blind trust run by a friend, family member, or acquaintance and then casually pass on information to that person. Technically, members of Congress can claim they weren’t actually making the trade or ordering another person to make the trade; they were simply “having a conversation” concerning information any competent trader would know what to do with.
Doesn’t this sound like something an old-time, pre-Obama-era Dem would write? Or maybe that’s just me deluding myself. Right now Palin is the only one saying this, and she considers herself an Independent registered as a Republican.
The whole article is here. She will keep hammering this issue until the GOP takes notice, because even though she is not running for President (yet), she is still the specter in the corner. GOP politicians at all levels would like her endorsement, but more, they fear her censure.
We’re about three weeks away from one of the most overrated events in politics – the Iowa caucuses. Every four years the citizens of Iowa wallow in the attention from being “first in the nation” to vote in our presidential primary process. Iowa still uses the “caucus” which is an arcane process I don’t understand and won’t even attempt to describe.
Sometimes they get it right just as sometimes a blind acorn finds a squirrel. Other times not so much. Here are the recent past winners:
1972
D- Uncommitted
R- Nixon 1976
D- Uncommitted
R- Ford 1980
D- Carter
R- Bush 1984
D- Mondale
R- Reagan 1988
D- Gephardt
R- Dole 1992
D- Harkin
R- Bush 1996
D- Clinton
R- Dole 2000
D- Gore
R- Bush 2004
D- Kerry
R- Bush 2008
D- Obama
R- Huckabee
In 1992 Bill Clinton finished a distant 3rd with only 3% of the votes. Four years ago John McCain finished in 4th place. Even when they pick the eventual winner they don’t always pick the right candidate.
About 4 years ago, pundits were talking about the mainstream centrist candidacy of Rudolph Giuliani and the possibility of a New York Senate rematch of him and Hillary Clinton in 2008. The Republican primary voters were considering ritual suicide. Giuliani never went up against Clinton. He dropped out before the election, for reasons other than personal. He was the GOP frontrunner only in the minds of the media.
The real Republican primary race was fought by Romney, who was deemed the conservative by the same media that recently had to give up on Giuliani. Then there was Mike Huckabee, the real conservative and there was John McCain. He was inoffensive, a solid Republican with campaign experience and he wasn’t Mitt Romney. Besides, by Super Tuesday it looked like he’d be running against Hillary Clinton.
John McCain wasn’t a moderate, but he had a history of working with the other side when it was necessary to be the grown up. He supported the War on Terror, but he had fundamental disagreements with Bush 43. McCain was also likely to pick Joe Lieberman as his running mate. In some ways, this could make for good general election material.
The key was Hillary Clinton. The more conservative a Republican is, the more excited he is about voting for whoever is not her. His unofficial slogan could have been “John McCain, at least he’s not Hillary.” I am of the opinion that with McCain’s centrist appeal, his superior experience and the anger of Republicans, he could have made it to victory in 2008.
Either Obama’s people, Mitt Romney’s people, the media or a combination of the three have narrowed the field in 2011. Herman Cain couldn’t be allowed to continue. Michele Bachmann is supposedly crazy and Rick Perry most likely is a good-looking moron. We’re left with 30% Romney, 5% Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich.
Primary voters now feel the impending doom of a second Obama term. Palin bowed out, Cain was forced out and others took themselves out. Romney represents everything they hate. Weakness prevails. Now, people want a warrior. They want someone who managed to win Congress for Republicans and impeach a president. This isn’t about better ideas, it’s about scorched earth. For Republicans, it’s time to “cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.” Newt is that dog.
