Election Eve Open Thread


We’re down to the nitty gritty. Let’s get ready for tomorrow the old fashioned way – with alcohol!

Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we vote!



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139 Responses to Election Eve Open Thread

  1. angienc says:

    What is best in life?

  2. angienc says:

    Look at these pictures from the Romney rallies in VA — the one in Fairfax had to be moved to a bigger venue due to demand. If these were for Obama they’d be all over the MSM.
    Meanwhile, Obama can only get half of the expected 30,000 with Springsteen & Jay-Z opening in Madison.

    http://twitchy.com/2012/11/05/stunning-pics-one-more-day-romney-rallies-massive-crowds-in-lynchburg-and-fairfax-va/

  3. myiq2xu says:

    OH.MY.GAWD! Check out this 6 year old:

  4. myiq2xu says:

  5. DandyTiger says:

    All you need is your guitar and an amp

  6. myiq2xu says:

    Bwahahahahaha!

    “My warning, we need to stay calm for much of the day,” Stephanie Cutter, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, said, touting thousands of early ballots already submitted by voters. “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.” …

    “Keep calm and tweet on,” Ms. Cutter said. “So, no matter what you hear tomorrow about turnout in Republican counties or exit polls, particularly early in the day, please remember and remind your readers that, because of early votes, we’re where we need to be to win….I don’t think there’s going to be official exits until the end of the day, but if things leak out that aren’t validated or weighted, please stay calm.”

    • angienc says:

      Well, some of them (Andrew Sullivan, Chris Matthews) seem to be hanging on to sanity by the thinnest of threads.

      BTW — I heard Brit Hume earlier say that Gallup is estimating turnout to be R+1; Ras is estimating it to be R+5.8. Romney wins in either scenario, but Ras’s = landslide.

      Ras has a very good track record for the last 3 presidential elections, btw:

      Year Rasmussen Actual
      2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)
      2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)
      2012 R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1) ?

    • DandyTiger says:

      Do you think Stephanie’s head will explode tomorrow? I’d pay to see that.

    • “keep calm and tweet on.” Says it all.

  7. threewickets says:

  8. lisadawn82 says:

    Ha! RT @dorothysnarker: I can’t wait for all the Obama/Romney talk to end Tuesday. And the Hillary 2016 talk to start Wednesday.

  9. threewickets says:

    Director of WH Progressive Media and Online Response team just posted this.

  10. tommy says:

    I look at both sides of the aisle and both are 100% sure that their guy is winning. Gallup and Rasmussen have R up by 1, Monmouth/SurveyUSA have the race tied, and ABC/WaPo have O up by 3 (as usual, its a D+6 sample with the D/R/I at 35/29/32 which is simply ridiculous cos 29 as repub turnout in a presidential election just doesn’t happen), which inturn pushes O up to a lead of 0.7 at the RCP Avg. On the other hand, we have Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball who gives O – 290ECVs to R – 248ECVs, but with R ahead in both Gallup and Rassie, I don’t see it happening.

    • tommy says:

      Oh, and I see the MSM almost giddy with excitement that O has done it, which I find disgusting. Its orchestrated as a GOTV for O, and a dampner for repub enthusiasm. Anytime now, I expect MSNBC to call the race for O based on fantasy exit polling.

    • angienc says:

      There’s a reason the mid-October Gallup number is important. Those have Romney over 50% with a 5 pt. lead. Even these latest polls that are being touted are ALL within the MOE (which means one showing Obama 49, Romney 48, could actually be Obama 46, Romney 51) and Obama isn’t at 50% — which is a shitty place for an incumbent to be (see the Carville rule).

      The polls that have come out this week have D+6, D+9 and D+11 samples. Yet Gallup says the election will be R+1 and Ras says it will be R+6 — which translates to Romney winning.

      Sabato has never, not once, worked in an actual presidential campaign. The three men who have — Rove, Michael Barone & Pat Caddell say Romney is winning because the internals of all the latest polls show movement towards Romney no matter the top lines.

      • threewickets says:

        Sounds right Angie. Never bought that the race has been a dead heat for the last two months. Always thought one or the other was clearly in the lead, just didn’t know which one. Now seems less of a mystery.

      • tommy says:

        Makes sense, angienc. Thanks.

  11. insanelysane says:

    Upon seeing the big picture “schmeared” across Huffposts gaudy page is a line of voters. From that picture , alone, I predict a big whopping loss for Obama. Everyone is wearing black. They are mourning and depressed. Things are bad and getting worse. There are 3 or 4 white and bright colors. Clearly those folks are the heavy Kool-ade slurpers. That is so sad.
    Big loss for Obama. You heard it here. Honk, honk.

  12. threewickets says:

    Here’s live video link if anyone is interested in Gary Johnson and Jill Stein debate on Russia Today. Just started.

  13. Just cleaned out my email again- the latest two (and there were a total of five! And I emptied the thing two hours ago lol) anyhoo- the latest two were what seemed to me panic emails from the D’s.
    In which THEY claim
    The polls show a tie in OH!
    BWAHAHAHAHA!
    Seriously- they are still asking for money and saying it isn’t too late- they’ll get it right out to Ohio to help.
    Right. SUUUURE they will. I think they are trying to put together enough money to flee the country to avoid prosecution for high crimes and misdemeanors.

  14. angienc says:

    A Romney Dem in line to get in at Mitt’s NH rally tonight:

  15. trist says:

    Any thoughts on who’ll jump the gun to be the first to call it tomorrow?
    My guess it won’t be MSNBC. Their exit polls are going to indicate a likely Mitt win, and they will want to hold off with that announcement. Until like 98% has been counted. Then they start with the calls for recount because there’s NO WAY Romney could have pulled it off without cheating. In fact I think their (Obama camp) insistance it’s in the bag is to set the stage for a “stolen” election charge. However, I don’t think it’ll be anywhere close enough to make a legitimate claim.

    • tommy says:

      The way MSNBC is absolutely giddy with excitement, they just might call it for O tonight based on fantasy exit polling. Lol

    • angienc says:

      Rumors are flying that TeamObama is planning to get the networks to call places early for Obama so they can sue. According to Tamerlane at John’s place, MoveOn has already put out the call for rallies on Wed to protest a potentially disputed election.

      • angienc says:

        Sorry I didn’t finish my first the sentence:

        “Rumors are flying that TeamObama is planning to get the networks to call places early for Obama so they can sue when they go for Romney when the votes are actually counted and/or to depress GOP turnout in the other time zones.”

      • trist says:

        I don’t doubt it. There was already a lawsuit filed in FL for early voting.
        “sigh” even if it’s a decisive victory for Mitt, O-bother won’t allow it to be a clean one!

      • myiq2xu says:

        Please Gawd let them try.

  16. kanaughty says:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/

    i love how she is saying all these polls are telling us to ignore our own eyes on the ground, like with the signs and bumper stickers. it makes so much sense, she is saying, stop thinking about all the data and look around and see what is happening, because that is how she is thinking that romney is winning.

  17. insanelysane says:

    MyIQ, are U letting in the trolls tomorrow?

  18. tommy says:

    Trist, I didn’t work it out, but fate did. So yep, I’ll be here election night. I was hit by an epidemic. Had fever delirium for a couple of days, but now its reached manageable levels. Another week of total bedrest, and I’ll be fine. Luckily, my brain, eyes and hands still work. Lol. All the same, thanks for asking.

  19. leslie says:

    O.M.G.
    The polls open in NH in 1hour 30 minutes from now. (Those 2 little towns that get all that teevee coverage every 4 years.) I can’t wait.

    • trist says:

      Midnight? Wow they expect people to show up all night?!? Are you going that early…errr, late?

      • lorac says:

        I watched one of those last time on tv – they all came at once – all 10 of the town’s adults – it was a VERY small town lol

        • trist says:

          You know, now that you mention it, I do remember seeing that on tv! Yeah, were all just so proud of themselves to be casting first on election day.

        • trist says:

          Didn’t they mostly go for Obama last time? I’m betting Mitt this time!

        • lorac says:

          Yes, they were a small town of idiots. It will be interesting to see if they’ve gotten smarter in 4 years!

      • angienc says:

        Dixon Notch (I think is how they spell it) only has 100 people total — the other town about the same. The residents are “excited” to vote then as a traditional sort of thing.

      • leslie says:

        I’m in the chicago area (please gawd don’t send TehOnce back here)and I voted last weekend. I smiled as I was touching the screen for Romney and Ryan. I made certain the print out read my votes as I meant them to be.

    • cj says:

      Dan McLaughlin‏@baseballcrank

      Dixville Notch O’Clock approaches.

  20. ME says:

    Can anyone help me out with twitter. I signed up to talk about the election. I have 200 followers and now the account is suspended. I did some #Blacks4Romney tweets and conversed with some black democrats. Have no clue what happened. The account is open in a tab and I am receiving tweets but can’t respond. It was fun while it lasted.

    • myiq2xu says:

      Someone got you sent to Twitter Gulag. They did that to Angie before too.

    • angienc says:

      What’s your username?

      If you can still see tweets it might be a temp thing for an hour or two. If you were “suspended” you wouldn’t be able to log on at all.

      • ME says:

        Okay I have an idea what happened. The account “blackrepublican” retweeted some comments from black democrats. These comments were talking about how blacks for romney are coons and that the GOP is going to bring back slavery. I responded to some of those and had some back and forth exchanges that I thought went fine. I was reasonable with people who were rude and uninformed. Twitter says I abused the @ function. I don’t know a lot about twitter. I was just responding to things that were in my “timeline.” I’m not a republican but I added blackrepublican because I am right leaning independent. The account is back open.

        My main reason for opening a twitter was due to Libya I wanted to add the guys that appear on FOX and some other blogs. I didn’t want to miss any news.

        Oh well.

  21. myiq2xu says:

  22. tommy says:

    Did Governor Christie turn down a Romney night rally request? After Christie’s effusive praise of O, and with this factored in, the repubs are not gonna be happy. The Romney rally was held at Morrisville, PA not more than 20 mins away from Trenton, NJ.

  23. cj says:

    lol

    Laura Ingraham‏@IngrahamAngle

    Michelle dwarfs the “Boss”…goes on to talk about how “this is the final event of my husband’s political life.” (I just got up & cheered!)

  24. trist says:

    What I most want to see is what the one does after tomorrow. I mean there is still a country to run, a terrorist attack to investigate, Sandy victims to assist ect. will he actually tend to any of it? I mean I know up until now he’s had more important things to worry about what with campaigning and all for the last 20 years, but that’s all done now. So with a month and half left, how is he going to spend it?
    Will he spend each one of those days in service to the country (for the first time) or just ride it out on the golf course?

    • cj says:

      I think we’ll see a glut of preposterous executive orders & lots of incriminating docs suddenly getting classified as top secret, but other than that nothing. If he loses, the bitter thing will flip the finger at an ungrateful nation for the next month and a half.

      • Constance says:

        I wonder who he will pardon. You know they all pardon a bunch of people on their way out the door. Christmas for felons.

  25. God, I am way too afraid to make a prediction at all. I know what my gut tells me, but then, along with you all (mostly) I was there in ’08. I was at the DNC, I was at the RBC, I was in Denver. Barack Obama and his campaign are CHEATERS AND LIARS adn they have the MSM fully at their backs.

    I liken it to Benghazi now. No matter how much WE cream, no matter how many blog-news sites tell the story, no matter how in-depth Fox News gets, until “TPTB” say it’s real – it isn’t. It just goes “Poof!” like F&F did.

    And with Jarrett out there saying really evil things – well, as much as I believe in a real Romney win – I just want to hold my enthusiasm until the race is called.

    Remember the Supremes and Obama Care?

    Barack Obama is a cheater.

    • imusthavepie says:

      Reminds me of the famous Hillary is 44 quote:

      Obama simply cannot be trusted. Obama cannot be trusted on any issue. Obama cannot be trusted by his friends. Obama cannot be trusted by his enemies. Obama cannot be trusted.

      • Erica says:

        True then, and true now. But Romney is a fighter and hopefully that, combined with the will of the majority will carry the day.

        And yes, he cheats and he lies and he can’t be trusted.

    • trist says:

      Yes, he’s a cheater. But it has to be extremely close to successfully pull it off. I just don’t see that happening. Their ONLY hope at this point is to try and suppress the turn out as much as possible ’cause there is no way they can turn out enough O supporters to match it.
      Na Gan Happen!
      People are fired up and ready to go….they’re just going in the “other” direction!

  26. good grief – sorry about the typos – new ergonomic wireless keyboard

  27. ME says:

    Both sides are sure of a win. We’ll find out tomorrow.

  28. cj says:

    Brad Dayspring‏@BDayspring

    “Not that I’ve ever seen Obama get this emotional before. Tears are flowing. Wow.”

    Obama crying? Real tears? I don’t believe it.

  29. myiq2xu says:

    USA Today:

    The mere fact that presidential elections matter this much is not a sign of national health but of national dysfunction. The more the federal government gets involved in every aspect of our lives — for good or ill — the more people will feel that their livelihoods, lifestyles, even their actual lives are at stake in a presidential election. If the federal government didn’t have so much leverage over your life, politicians wouldn’t be able to scare you into the voting booths.

    For instance, beneath the partisan distortions and hyperbole, Obama’s “war on women” rhetoric is the idea that the federal government should be the guarantor of “reproductive freedom” — a malleable term that includes everything from the right to abortion on demand to subsidized birth control pills. Whatever the merits of that argument, the simple fact is that a government that has the power to give you everything you want has the power to take it away, as well.

    That’s one reason Supreme Court appointments have become such ridiculous spectacles. The justices have acquired powers historically belonging to democratically elected politicians, in the executive and legislative branches. With so much at stake, and with so little accountability once confirmed, it’s no wonder the confirmation process has become an inside-the-beltway version of a presidential campaign. Given the power of the Supreme Court, it’s only rational to fight hammer and tongs over every appointment.

    President George W. Bush adopted a number of policies liberals once decried as dangerous expansions of the imperial presidency. With a few exceptions, few complain about those powers now that Obama is the president. The rule seems to be runaway executive power is good, so long as my guy is in power.

    That’s a dangerous principle.

  30. myiq2xu says:

    Breitbart:

    Hint: watch Pennsylvania on Tuesday night. If Romney wins it, or is even close, a Romney landslide is happening. Pennsylvania is “the canary in the coal mine.”

    But the most important sign is crowd size and enthusiasm. In my home state of Nevada, only 10 days ago, Democrats worked long and hard to barely pull 5000 people off the streets to come to an Obama rally in North Las Vegas. Meanwhile in Henderson, a quiet suburb of Las Vegas, an overflow crowd of 8000 jammed into a rockin’ Romney rally that closed the streets for miles. Families came from far and wide with their children to see the next President.

    Or take Ohio – the lynchpin of the entire election. Whoever has the enthusiasm will surely take the state. This weekend Obama attracted 2500 to a rally in a medium sized city. Romney/Ryan attracted over 30,000 to a rally in a small town. Obama then traveled to Cleveland, where his rally attracted 4000 fans. Four years ago, his Cleveland rally attracted 80,000. If only these were instead rallies for the unemployed, Obama would be playing to standing room only stadiums in every city in America.

    The size of those crowds tells the depressing story that the Obama campaign and the mainstream media don’t want you to know. Obama is no longer a Messiah. He’s just another lying politician, with a boring message that no one wants to hear anymore.

    Yes, Mr. Obama, size matters. And you sir are suffering from shrinkage.

    • trist says:

      I’m still unwilling to call PA for either. But that I can’t bodes well for Mitt.
      And yeah, if he takes that, they’ll be calling it for him very early tomorrow.

  31. angienc says:

    Romney rally in NH — reporters on Twitter say the crowd will *not* stop cheering — Romney has tried to start speech several times:

  32. angienc says:

    Meanwhile, Obama (with his back up singers Jay Z & Springsteen) plays to an arena with many empty seats in Ohio. Pictures at link with an auto play video from the official “kick off” which was at a half-empty arena in Ohio (with Team Obama giving the Spinal Tap excuse that they purposefully picked smaller, more intimate groups.

    I’ll cut & paste the text in case you don’t want to click on the link due to autoplay, but it is worth it to see the pictures contrasted to Romney event.

    http://tinyurl.com/c7qr39p

    President Obama’s big rally tonight turned out to be just like his first, opening salvo of the 2012 campaign: a half-empty arena in Ohio. According to RealClearPolitics’ Scott Conroy, there were “empty seats scattered around the upper-level of Nationwide Arena … Four years ago, after all, Obama was easily filling venues larger than that …” The event even featured Bruce Springsteen and Jay-Z, and Obama still couldn’t fill it out.

    As it turns out, the empty seats didn’t look exactly “scattered.” They looked like substantial portions of the upper bowl of the arena, according to photos tweeted by those in attendance:

    And thus the Obama campaign comes full circle: from tepid open to lukewarm close in Ohio.

  33. tsuhtt1 says:

    Twitter is blocking #benghazi from trending, if you post #romney on any of their silly trends the tweet won’t appear, if you post pro #romney tweets to swing states like #ohio the tweets won’t appear. however pro 0bama tweets populate the swing states #s. bottom line twitter is In the tank for Obama just like all the MSM is. Don’t know what can be done, maybe form an occupy media movement ?

  34. trist says:

    They’re counting those first votes in NH

  35. trist says:

    they’re posting them now

  36. trist says:

    And of course they have to build up to it!

  37. trist says:

    For Pres They have a tie!

  38. trist says:

    THey say it’s a first there, the tie. Never happened before

  39. trist says:

    But the indies DID go for Romney.

  40. myiq2xu says:

    Ace of Spades:

    As Brit Hume says, something’s wrong here, and we don’t know what.

    What’s wrong here are the huge partisan splits in the Democrats’ advantage.

    How can Obama be tied with Romney, in CNN’s final poll, with Independents going +22 for Romney?

    Oh, right: Because, CNN projects, Democrats will enjoy an unheard-of +11 advantage in votes.

    I feel odd finally rejecting the state polls, and some national polls (D+11, indeed!) — giving up on finding some way they could be telling a piece of the truth.

    They’re just wrong. I’m uncomfortable just saying data is wrong but that’s where I come down.

    One problem I have, though, is that many conservatives still seem to be making arguments based on numbers from 14 days ago, talking up a big Romney national vote lead. In fact, now, thanks to Obama doing a photo op (man, that guy is good at photo ops!), it’s now tied.

    Still, the assumptions for this tie are very strange. Apparently 2010 never happened, the country never rose up to reject socialism and failure, and 2008’s Democratic plurality grew by leaps and bounds.

    Apparently the continue majority support for repeal of ObamaCare somehow managed to increase the Democrats’ popularity. Apparently the $6 trillion in new debt Obama signed into existence boosted his party’s support.

    Apparently presiding over a higher unemployment rate than any president ever re-elected (since FDR) has made the Democratic Party the dominant political force in the country.

    Bill Clinton, apparently, had it all backwards. He presided over a furiously growing economy with (for a couple of quarters) a sub-4% unemployment rate but didn’t manage to realign the country in the Democrats’ favor.

    But Barack Obama, by keeping unemployment at the 8% level (higher than the very high unemployment he started his term with) has won the hearts and imaginations of the nation for the Democratic Party.

    That Clinton. What an idiot. He tried success. Didn’t he know catastrophic failure in nearly every detail was the right approach?

    Now, Team Obama explains that a growing, rather than shrinking, Democratic advantage in the electorate is possible because they’ve signed up 1.8 new voters. That’s very wonderful.

    Trouble is, a WaPo/ABCNews poll found that Obama had lost 9.1 million of his 2008 voters directly to Romney, with 3% more undecided (and they will probably break 1.5 to Romney, 1 stay home, .5 to Obama).

    Now, Obama didn’t just lose these voters. They’re not just staying home. 9.1 million are flipping to Romney — that’s an 18.2 million net swing. Ten times the size of the new voters Obama brags he’s signed up. Plus, using my back of the envelope guess as to the remaining 3% of undecided 2008 Obama voters– that adds another net +3 to the shift to Romney.

    So, in total, on election day, we’ll find that of Obama’s 2008 voters, there’s been a net shift of 21 million to Mitt Romney. 10.5 million subtracted from Obama’s column, and 10.5 million added to Team Red’s.

    But you know — 1.8 million new voters registered.

    So how on earth could the nation now be more Democratic than it was in 2008?

  41. trist says:

    Oh well, guess I’m going to bed, to dream of better tomorrows, first ladies who dress in appropriate (preferably sleeved) attire and unity ponies processed into cheap pet food.
    Nite All!

  42. myiq2xu says:

    HAPPY ELECTION DAY EVERYONE!

  43. swanspirit says:

    http://www.wgme.com/news/top-stories/stories/wgme_vid_14179.shtml

    “Traditional Dixville Notch, NH first voting town of USA…results: Obama 5 Romney 5. A tie!”

    “2008 Dixville Notch: Obama 15, McCain 6″

  44. And Obama wept. yfrog.com/9fyft6j— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) November 6, 2012

  45. Don’t know why that didn’t embed — what’s your caption? Is this his swan song tonight?

  46. imusthavepie says:

    @Anita….what’s he crying about?

  47. threewickets says:

    Wow Nate Silver has Obama’s chances of winning now at 92.2%. If Nate’s going down, he really wants to go down in flames. I know you guys have covered this thoroughly, but looking at his site again, all he’s really doing is aggregating and crushing polling data as they’re provided by the tracking companies.. As far as I can tell, he’s not factoring or adjusting sampling skews based on prospective turnout at all. If the sampling doesn’t match the turnout, the polls are crap and so is anything Nate handles. Anyway, nothing you don’t know already.

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