Lay your bets!

Time to lay your bets. Commit in the comments to who wins, what the Electoral votes and the Popular votes will be, and (if you like) the Senate and House outcome (for all and/or for your state).
You can use the NYT* map to predict the Electoral Votes.

*I know they’re an Obama PR firm, but their map is cool.

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96 Responses to Lay your bets!

  1. Kim says:

    I hope, hope, hope that Romney wins, but I’m afraid that the O machine will do what it takes, if you know what I mean. We’ll be told that Obama won becase he looked so fetching in that bomber jacket touring the Hurricane Sandy aftermath.

  2. votermom says:

    I’ll start.
    Electoral votes Romney 332 – Obama 207
    (Romney gets all the tossups plus OH, PA, and Maine)
    Popular vote 53 – 47 (just going for that 47% lol)

    Tome Smith defeats Bob Casey
    GOP takes the senate

    • NewOrleans says:

      I agree with you on the popular vote and the Senate.

      Electoral votes: R: 341 O: 197

      This is the Chick-fil-A election I was hoping for. The silent masses are going to come out for Romney. BIG TIME.

  3. insanelysane says:

    Too many powerful people have invested in Obama so he will squeak out a win even if he doesn’t. The polls are tied up and that makes it perfect for the Chicago Combine to work its cheating magic. O will pull it out. Romney won’t contest it and will give a gracious concession speech and Obama will act like the A$$ he is and think he was just crowned king for life.
    I am going to hate it and go into a 3 week depression at which point I will go in for a scheduled colonoscopy just to make myself feel better!

  4. myiq2xu says:

    I predict that Romney will win all the red states and most or all of the swing states. He may even pick-up a couple blue states.

  5. angienc says:

    Is 310 a landslide? Because that’s my prediction.

    But worst case scenario he wins with 271 — CO early voting shows Romney’s lead can’t be overcome there, so that’s in the bag. He picks up WI (Ryan) & NH (Sununu) and he doesn’t need OH or even PA.

    • votermom says:

      Over 300 is a landslide in my opinion.

    • angienc says:

      PS — popular vote is 52-47 with 1% to combined 3rd party candidates.

      • I agree with this assessment, but I do think it could be slightly higher for the two more popular third party candidates, Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. I think Stein could pull out 2% and Johnson 3-5%. If they mostly come from Obama’s column, which they will, that will leave him closer to 42%.

        • angienc says:

          I don’t know — Stein didn’t make it on every ballot in all 50 states so while I can see her getting that much in a particular state (say CA or even WI — I’ve heard she’s doing well in Madison) can she really get so much of the vote in those state to give her 2% of the NATIONAL vote? No way.

        • votermom says:

          Interesting side bet – who gets more votes: Stein or Johnson?

        • There are a lot of angry progressives out there, whole colonies. It could be 1%. I’m not a statistician. But I do think Johnson is going to be a big drag on Obama.

        • Votermom: Johnson easily. He has a penis and a record, two things Stein does not have,

        • angienc says:

          I think Stein is going to do a lot “better” in safe blue states than people think she will (such as MA & CA).

          Johnson will do better than Stein overall because (1) he’s on all 50 ballots and (2) he has gotten more attention from the MSM in an attempt to help Obama — but I don’t know if that happens because most of the people going for Johnson are the Paulbots & they would have voted for Obama before Romney.

    • From Greta re Colorado

      From: “Acuna, Alicia”

      Date: November 5, 2012 2:14:34 PM EST

      From Colorado Secretary of State’s office…

      Two things: two (large) colorado county clerks plan to send employees home at midnight, whether counting is complete or not.

      problems being reported with some machines.

      • Constance says:

        I agree with this plan. There is no reason Colorado people have to stay up all night to count ballots. In Washington we count all ballots with an election day post mark no matter when they come in. If the east coast media find this inconvenient we don’t care. In fact we consider their dislike a good reason to stick with our plan.

      • angienc says:

        Where’d you get this because there are always voter fraud/machine malfunction stories floating around before the election.

        Besides, the Colorado Sec. of State is a Republican so I’m not worried.

        Yeah I said it.

    • angienc says:

      I want to change my popular vote bet to:

      52.5% Romney; 46.5% Obama with 1% to combined 3rd party candidates.

      • I’d be happy with that result. It’s closer to the Walker margin than what I’m currently predicting. I’m accounting for Sandy and the economic noise generated by the Labor Departments lies.

  6. The poll questions were questionable. :)

    Seriously. I had a hard time answering it, because I think Romney will win by a smallish vote margin, but will get an electoral landslide. Remember, Reagan only got 51% of the vote, but 489 ECVs. In my opinion, the national margin will likely be no greater than 4 points, but the ECVs will be close to or will just break 300.

    • I realize this conflicts with what I just said in response to Angie, and honestly I can’t explain it. One of these scenarios is likely to come true and I haven’t yet figured it out. The only thing I’m sure of is that Romney has the momentum, and history is at his back.

    • angienc says:

      There was an actual viable 3rd party candidate (in addition to the usual other 3rd party candidates) — John Anderson — who ran in 1980 who got almost 7% of the vote that year.
      I don’t think Johnson is going to be an Anderson.

  7. tommy says:

    I voted for Romney by a small margin, but if given better choices, eeyore that I am, I’d vote for a tie (the House then picks the Preezy, and the Senate, the vice-Preezy). Lol. President Romney and VP Biden. That would be hilarious. Lol

  8. angienc says:

    Remember, don’t let the nostalgia for Reagan that occurred after the fact fool you. In 1980 people didn’t know it was going to be a landslide & the MSM not only *hated* Reagan with a passion (he was going to starve old people & start WW3) they also talked about how long gas lines, high inflation & high unemployment was “the new normal.”

    https://twitter.com/AmericanMind/status/265221061493272576

  9. Constance says:

    I don’t have time to figure out the EC votes but I bet Romney wins by enough EC votes to shut down the attempts by the Obots to call the election rigged by racists. I was listening to NPR again at work and they have been talking about how Republicans are keeping minorities from voting in Florida and Ohio as we speak and how there are already many court cases the Democrats are being forced to bring and there will be more by the end of election day. To hear them it sounds like our country is incapable of carrying out an election.

    • blowme0bama says:

      Oh, yes, yes. This is what NPR does; wring their hands over imaginary phantom “racists!!” who want confirmation of ID before voting.

      I’ll be so glad when my tax $ no longer goes to subsidize their daily shouts of racism.

  10. bluestate says:

    i’ll go with rove’s prediction:

    Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

    • angienc says:

      He was scarily accurate with his EV prediction in 2008. But note he’s saying “at least” 278 — that means it is worst case scenario.

      Michael Barone, OTOH, has predicted 315 for Romney — and he’s a very cautious man (he is also a very well respected precinct analyst with a long history in politics). For example, in 2008 he refused to make an EV prediction, only saying it was “likely” that Obama would win.

      We’ve also got George Will — who never worked national campaigns like Rove or Barone but who is a cautious man not known to go out on a limb, and who, in fact said in January that there was “no way” to beat Obama so the GOP should just concentrate on Congressional races — saying on MTP Sunday that he picks Romney in a landslide of 320 EVs!

      There’s something they’re seeing in the “real” polls that the MSM isn’t telling us.

  11. SHV says:

    “While examining some possible Electoral College scenarios with NBC News White House Correspondent Chuck Todd, Andrea Mitchell wondered why President Barack Obama’s campaign would send former President Bill Clinton to Philadelphia if they were confident the Keystone State was unlikely to flip to Mitt Romney on Tuesday. “If Pennsylvania is in play, then this is all over for the president,” Mitchell said. ”

    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/andrea-mitchell-if-pennsylvania-is-in-play-then-this-is-all-over-for-the-president/

    • Just heard that Mitt is going to be campaigning- tomorrow? What does this mean? Campaigning on election day?
      Sad- cuz I heard he is going to be in Pittsburgh- but I have appts tomorrow- plus voting.

      • angienc says:

        He isn’t campaigning tomorrow, he’s having a GOTV event in OH in the morning — probably a “rallying the troops” thing that the MSM is distorting to make it seem like it’s a bad thing.

  12. FLVoter says:

    I think Mr. Romney will win and I think that he will take Florida no problem. If the President was here yesterday in very blue Broward County, trying to get people energized, he is in trouble.

    I posted this in the last thread at the bottom. It bugged me. I don’t know if I am being a little off or seeing too much into this. Here is what I wrote:

    “CAIR has requested the Broward County Florida School Board to provide two days off for public school students due to Islamic holy days. Christmas vacation is winter break and Easter vacation is spring break. Some Jewish holy days are teacher work days, but there is no religious holy day vacation days or even recognition. The muslim students can take these two days off without affecting their absences but still want official holy days off in the Broward County Public Schools calendar. Am I missing something here?”

    http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-11-01/news/fl-muslim-holiday-meeting-20121101_1_muslim-holidays-religious-holidays-muslim-families

    Reply

  13. britgirls says:

    Okay, on October 2nd I wrote down my prediction and it was Romney with 285. However, since then Wisconsin has really come into play, so I’m switching it to:

    Romney 295
    Obama 243

    I’ll give Obama NV and MI, but Romney gets CO, IA, WI, OH & NH.

    Also, Peggy Noonan of all people is sounding positively giddy at the looming prospect of a Romney win:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/

    • angienc says:

      I’m telling you — Noonan & Will, who *always* go with the conventional wisdom.
      Plus Barone — who I do think has principles but who is always cautious nonetheless.
      It means something.
      Now, if David Brooks writes about the beautiful knot of Romney’s tie then we can pop the champagne now.

      • britgirls says:

        Yeppers! I’m excited for tomorrow. What channel is everyone going to watch for the results?

        • angienc says:

          FOX, until it is called for Romney. At that point, I’m immediately switching to MSNBC.

        • DandyTiger says:

          Snicker, snicker. I think I’ll do the same. Fox then MSNBO for the nosebleeds. If it swings the other way, I’ll be drinking heavily. Wait, I might be doing that anyway.

        • bluestate says:

          FOX, until it is called for Romney. At that point, I’m immediately switching to MSNBC.

          this.

        • Constance says:

          Both FOX and MSNBC simultaneously. I can’t wait.

        • jjmtacoma says:

          I wonder if the MSNBC ratings will go up after the election if Obama loses as many people want to watch the suffering and excuses.

        • I bought a brand spankin’ new LED smart TV this weekend just so I could see the full meltdown on MSNBO in all its gloriousness. 40 inch, baby. Chris Matthews giant head will be almost life-sized.

        • leslie says:

          I’m with angienc, DandyTiger, bluestate, and Lola-at-Large (sans the 40 inch screen) on this FOX, then MSNBO. And if I can figure out a way to move mysmaller teevee into the same room as the larger, I’ll watch them simultaneously as well.

        • leslie says:

          I’ve been thinking about this and wondered if we could talk FOX into covering the MSNBO collapse after Romney is declared the winner. Because the vaporization of a cable news network is pretty major. (heh)

    • angienc says:

      Two good quotes:

      Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.
      {snip}
      Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

      No shit.
      Catch up.

      • SimoFish says:

        OOL – me too – FOX all the way – then MSMBC and CNN – I want to see Donna Brazillenut CRY !!!!!!

        • Lulu says:

          I either want to see them catatonic or screaming and pulling their own hair out. I don’t care which. Incontinence would be OK too.

        • Constance says:

          I forgot about Brazille. Dang now I need to find another TV for my set up. She was one of the first to turn on Hillary.

        • lorac says:

          Yes! When Romney wins, we should all text her saying the new democratic party doesn’t need her anymore! And she should “get over it”, and she needs to “stop the hate”!

        • leslie says:

          lorac ~ that’s brilliant. I’ve got the tweet ready to go. I can’t wait !!!

        • trist says:

          You know, I still remember seeing Donna during the opening of the DNC in ’08. She was giving a tour of the hall and she was going on about how the party had unified now and we were all supposedly healed after the brutal primary. She and the CNN reporter then reached a bin of candidates banners for the delegates to use. She reached in, pulled out one that had Hillary’s name on it, and with an audible “ugh” she shoved it forcefully back into the bin and selected an Obama banner. Pretty much sums up the Obama’s brand of togetherness!

      • elliesmom says:

        I got quietly optimistic on Chick-fil-a day. I hope it’s a sign that Romney doesn’t really need a “ground game”. He has a “cause”.

        • angienc says:

          I think that like everything else about the Obama campaign their “superior ground game” is a myth. They didn’t beat Hillary in the primary states — they beat her in the caucus states where they bussed in supporters. As for the GE, they had the “cause” (i.e., any Dem was going to win because of Bush fatigue) plus the MSM carrying water & they still had to outspend McCain 3 to 1 to do it. They’ve still got the MSM but they aren’t outspending Romney *now.* And as you say, Romney’s got the “cause” this time.

  14. ME says:

    How can you guys make predictions? I have no idea.

  15. DandyTiger says:

    Because among recent national polls, Obama is averaging about 48%, I’ll go with the Carvelle rule and say that’s all he gets. I’ll leave 1% to random and say it’s 51% to 48% Romney popular vote win. For EC, I’ll go with 291 Romney, 247 Obama.

    • DandyTiger says:

      For those EC numbers, I gave Obama: NV, IA, MN, and even OH. I figured OH for Obama even though Romney should win it, because I think the Obama team have their thumb on the scale. Then I gave Romney: WI, NH, VA, FL, CO, and PA. Romney wins even without PA, but I think he’s going to get it anyway.

      • DandyTiger says:

        Oh yeah, congress. R’s lose a few seats in the house, but keep it with big numbers, and R’s gain seats in Senate, but don’t capture it.

      • lisadawn82 says:

        President Clinton was in Pittsburgh today, I wonder how that will work out.

        • elliesmom says:

          elliesdad is a PA boy. Berks County. But his relatives are spread all over the state. They all think PA should give Philadelphia to New Jersey, but they’ll keep Pittsburgh.

      • Dandy, my thinking is very close to yours. I think obama may get ohio and pennsylvania but romney gets everything else.

      • Mary says:

        I find myself agreeing with Dandy re Carville’s rule—if he’s at 48, that’s all he gets, and all the rest swing to challenger.

        Hesitant to declare a landslide for Romney (although I’d love to see it, so he has a mandate), but definitely a Romney win.

  16. yttik says:

    I predict a Romney landslide. I give Obama Washington, California, and DC. Beyond that, all the other blue states are toss ups, as fatr as I’m concerned.

    I can see Oregon going red. Washington may very well get a Republican governor, but still go Obama in the general. We’ll keep our Dem senator.

    I predict Republicans will keep the House and gain seats in the senate.

    • elliesmom says:

      I wish MA was a toss up, but I don’t think this will be a repeat of 1980. I do think Brown has a chance of keeping the senate seat, which I didn’t think a week ago. When I found out this morning elliesdad, lifetime Democrat who didn’t leave the party in 2008, just tossed several colorful epithets their way, is voting for Brown and saw he’s pulled at least even again, hope sprung.

  17. Heyyy, I just realized that Romney’s HQ is here in Boston — that means his rally tomorrow night will be in my hometown. I just might head into the city after I vote.

  18. votermom says:

  19. Hmmm. Now why the hell would the Obama campaign need 154 MORE volunteers for tomorrow for our dinky little town? (the latest email from OFA) Seriously- there are not even 20,000 people in the “city” next to us where the D headquarters for the county is located.
    154? For what?
    They won’t win but one precinct- the one that contains the public housing and the college. And 154 more people won’t change that. Even if they could find anyone around here willing to be seen supporting that fraud.

  20. leslie says:

    I can’t make any predictions. I’m superstitious about this kind of thing. It’s enough that I contributed to the Romney/Ryan campaign. that was taking a huge risk for me as the last 2 candidates I contributed to both lost.

    I’m hoping Romney wins and I hope Carville was wrong and Rove was right.

  21. lorac says:

    I’ll say 315 for Romney

  22. trist says:

    I’m wondering if the popular vote will be huge for Romney. I think a lot or voters who normally don’t vote, (like me) and many in states that are a sure thing for both sides went to the polls or will go tomorrow. That is even in states where it wouldn’t make a difference, there is this desire to let yourself be heard!

    And for the record, I think one can vote for revenge AND love of country!

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