Where’s the schadenfreude?

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Fifteen years ago I would have received great pleasure from this headline:

The Coming GOP Gingrich Freakout

Today’s question is: will the Gingrich balloon deflate like all the previous Not Mitt balloons?

The answer is: yes of course–but given that these balloons take typically 6-8 weeks to shrivel, the impending Gingrich bust may not arrive soon enough to save Romney. No question though, it will arrive in time to freak out the Republican party.

The most important thing to remember about Gingrich is not the three marriages, not the dubious financial practices, not the abrupt reversals on healthcare mandates and climate change. It’s not the grandiosity of language, not the habit of casting opponents as un-American, not the lack of self-awareness that allowed him to impeach a president for lying under oath about an extramarital affair while engaged in an extramarital affair of his own.

The most important thing to remember about Newt Gingrich is that his colleagues in the House of Representatives effectively fired him as their leader even before the impeachment crisis, shifting power instead into the more competent hands of Tom DeLay. It was Tom DeLay who ran the caucus while Newt Gingrich was traveling the country giving speeches about Total Quality Management and the Struggle for Western Civilization.

Gingrich was not pushed aside by his caucus for any of the offenses listed above. He was pushed aside because he plunged the caucus into chaos, because he lost fights that he himself had chosen, because he could not control his mouth, because he wanted to be a star more than he wanted to get things done. There’s a reason Gingrich is fascinated by management gurus: he needs the help.

That weakness in Gingrich will not now abruptly change. The chaos that surrounded him as Speaker, the chaos that engulfed his presidential campaign earlier this year – that chaos will replicate itself again. But when? It’s less than 5 weeks to the New Hampshire primary. Perhaps Gingrich can behave himself till then, in which case Mitt Romney has a big problem on his hands. But it’s more than 8 full months to the Republican convention in Tampa.

Prediction: if Gingrich has emerged as the nominee by then, the mood of that convention will be full unconcealed panic.

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The GOP establishment has only themselves to blame. They anointed Mitt as the front-runner and tried to rig the race so that he didn’t have to face any first class challengers.

Just one little problem – the GOP base hates Mitt. After searching all year for Not-Romney, it looks like they have settled by default on the Newtster. Panic and hilarity ensue.

So why am I not enjoying this?

Barack Obama is why.

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Non-News – Newt’s Naughty

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Woman says she performed sexual acts on married Newt in 1977, thinks voters simply must know

A woman who worked for Newt Gingrich’s first successful congressional campaign in 1977 is sharing allegations of an adulterous affair with her boss in an attempt to stem the rise of the current GOP front-runner.

Anne Manning says that she had an adulterous relationship with Gingrich 34 years ago. At the time, he was married to his first wife, Jackie Battley, and campaigning for Congress with the slogan “Let Our Family Represent Your Family.”

Manning told the National Inquirer that she performed a sexual act on Gingrich in a Washington, D.C. hotel room, but adds that they didn’t have sex so that “he could say he had not slept with me.”

“He always talks about being big on family values but he doesn’t practice what he preaches,” Manning said, according to London’s Daily Mail newspaper. “I wasn’t planning to say a word about him, but voters need to know what sort of man they’re being asked to support.”

Manning first alleged in 1995 that she had had an affair with Gingrich, telling Vanity Fair, “We had oral sex. He prefers that modus operandi because then he can say, ‘I never slept with her.’”

Gingrich has publicly acknowledged his past infidelities: He cheated on his first wife with Marianne Ginther, who he later married. In turn, he cheated on Ginther with his current wife Callista Gingrich.

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So back when Jimmy Carter was in his first year in the Oval Office this woman played a tune on Newt’s skin flute. I’m shocked. Shocked!

I’m shocked she kept it a secret so long.

Any bets on how the media will handle this?

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Fuck-you, Tweety!

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Chris Matthews can talk all he wants about Newt Gingrich. I don’t dispute that every word he says in the clip above is accurate.

But I haven’t forgotten Tweety’s obsession with The Clenis. When Newt and the GOP were trying to bring down the Big Dawg, Tweety and the rest of the jackals at MSNBC were their willing lapdogs.

I also haven’t forgotten the glee Matthew’s showed four years ago when he thought Hillary’s presidential campaign was over in the days between losing Iowa and winning New Hampshire.

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Bush is Newt’s fault?

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Ramesh Ponnuru:

Before Republicans put Newt Gingrich at the top of their party, they should consider what happened the last time he led it.

In the mid-1990s, Gingrich was the de facto head of the Republican Party. He helped lead it to victory in the congressional elections of 1994, which brought about real accomplishments such as welfare reform. But once he attained power, both his popularity and that of his party started to plummet. In the aftermath of his leadership, a Republican was able to take the presidency only by pointedly distancing himself from Gingrich.

Conservatives who dislike George W. Bush’s compassionate conservatism have Gingrich to thank for it. After Gingrich lost the budget battles with President Bill Clinton, it took 15 years for any politician to take up the cause of limited-government conservatism that he had discredited.

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George W. Bush’s conservative wasn’t very compassionate. It consisted of momentarily feeling bad for homeless people as you looked the other way and riding in your limo. He “compassionately” murdered at least 100,000 Iraqis in a war of conquest and made jokes about it.

I do, however, appreciate Mr. Ponnuru admitting that Bill Clinton successfully discredited limited-government conservatism.

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Eye of Newt

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There’s a lot of pixels being sacrificed over Newton Leroy Gingrich these days.

The insider-outsider divide over Newt Gingrich

There’s a deep and growing divide in the Republican world between those who are able to reconcile themselves with — to wrap their heads around — the possibility of Newt Gingrich becoming the GOP presidential nominee, and those who are not. It’s becoming increasingly clear that it is Washington insiders who are having the most trouble imagining a Gingrich nomination, while Republicans outside Washington aren’t having a problem.

Of course it’s the Washington insiders who have the most actual experience dealing with Gingrich. Just look at what Republican Sen. Tom Coburn, who served with Gingrich in the House in the 1990s, said about the former speaker on Fox News Sunday. “I’m not inclined to be a supporter of Newt Gingrich’s having served under him for four years and experienced personally his leadership,” Coburn said. “I found it lacking often times.”

“There are all types of leaders,” Coburn continued. “Leaders that instill confidence, leaders that are somewhat abrupt and brisk, leaders that have one standard for the people they are leading and a different standard for themselves. I just found his leadership lacking and…I will have difficulty supporting him as president of the United States.”

Gingrich has also taken flak from another former colleague, Rep. Peter King. “The problem was, over a period of time, he couldn’t stay focused,” King said of Gingrich a few days ago. “He was undisciplined. Too often, he made it about himself.”

It’s more than just former colleagues. If one were to survey politicos, journalists and others who lived through Gingrich’s years as speaker in Washington, there would likely be a near-consensus that Gingrich will blow up his candidacy through some mixture of arrogance and indiscipline. Those insiders simply don’t believe there is a New Newt. Old Newt, the Gingrich who alienated many of his colleagues back in the 90s, will reassert himself soon enough, they believe.

Those opinions are colored by personal experience with Gingrich during his years as speaker. That’s not the case for most voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and the rest of the primary and caucus states. While insiders remember Gingrich’s low points from the 90s, outsiders remember his triumphs. They remember a Gingrich who had the vision to imagine a Republican takeover of the House when no one else could, and the skill to make it happen. And when outsiders think of the two greatest policy achievements of the Clinton years — a balanced budget and welfare reform — they know Gingrich can legitimately claim a lot of credit for both. So what if he was abrupt with colleagues? Or, for that matter, if he was the target of a Democratic-driven ethics attack? As far as the 1990s are concerned, outsiders remember Gingrich’s high points.

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When I was in college in the mid-nineties I did a term paper on Newt. I still have the paper somewhere (I’m a packrat) and probably have a version on floppy disk. But I don’t want to explore my archives and I don’t have a floppy drive anymore. There was nothing really earth-shattering in there anyway.

I only bring it up to emphasize that I have more than a passing familiarity with Naughty Newtie. He is someone I could never vote for, but at the same time I have developed a grudging respect for his abilities.

More than any other person, Newt Gingrich is responsible for the Republican Revolution of 1994. By then I had been a Newt-watcher for nearly a decade and a half. I first remember seeing him while watching the 1980 GOP convention. At that time I was in the Army stationed in Germany. Newt was a freshman congressman running for reelection and was the leader of the “Young Turks.”

No Newt is good Newt

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Two views:

The New Newt

[...]

The episode is a little confounding. Who is this gregarious, upbeat candidate, and what has he done with Newt Gingrich? Whatever’s gotten into him, he is loose and appears to be enjoying himself as he campaigns across South Carolina. “We’re just letting Newt be Newt,” says Adam Waldeck, Gingrich’s South Carolina state director.

The truth is that Gingrich is now the comfortable frontrunner, the self-assured favorite of conservatives who are searching for their champion against Obama, the happy warrior in the fight to (I’m paraphrasing the man) fundamentally reform the federal government on a profound scale, the likes of which the country has never seen in its entire history.

At a townhall in Newberry, Gingrich is gleefully bullish. “If we win South Carolina, I predict I will be the nominee.” It’s not an unreasonable assumption; since 1980, every winner of the state’s Republican primary has gone on to capture the nomination. Two days later, though, in an interview with ABC’s Jake Tapper, Gingrich drops the pretense of uncertainty. “I’m going to be the nominee,” he tells Tapper. “It’s very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I’m going to be the nominee.”

Just letting Newt be Newt.

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and:

The return of Bad Newt Gingrich

The all-too-familiar character from the 1990s has only peeked out in public a handful of times so far. But already, Newt Gingrich — flush with pride over new polls showing his left-for-dead candidacy now leading the pack — is letting his healthy ego roam free again, littering the campaign trail with grand pronouncements about his celebrity, his significance in political history and his ability to transform America.

[...]

Longtime Gingrich watchers see clear signs that “Good Newt” (disciplined, charming, expansive in personality and intellect) is engaging in an internal battle with “Bad Newt” (off-message, bombastic, self-wounding) as his political fortunes rise.

“Remember, this is the man of the combination of Churchill and de Gaulle to begin with,” conservative columnist George Will told radio host Laura Ingraham. “He’s the embodiment of a nation in deep peril. The stage has to be lit by the fires of crisis and grandeur to suit Newt Gingrich.”

“Gingrich [is] always a fine a line between charming and brilliant on one hand, and eccentric and borderline dangerous on the other,” said Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California. “He’s been ‘Charming Newt’ for the last several weeks. But the last couple of days have been a reminder of his other side.”

Gingrich “only has two modes — attack and brag,” explained one veteran GOP strategist.

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I’ll tell you everything you need to know about Newton Leroy Gingich:

In 1998 he was Speaker of the House and led the impeachment of Bill Clinton. He didn’t do it because he was outraged at the Big Dawg’s immoral behavior (Newt was then having an affair with his current wife while still married to his second wife) and he knew that Bill Clinton would not be removed from office because the Democrats controlled the Senate. Newt led the impeachment drive because he believed (and convinced his fellow House Republicans) it would help them win the 1998 congressional election.

His scheme backfired:

Republicans lost five seats in the House in the 1998 elections—the worst midterm performance in 64 years for a party that didn’t hold the presidency. Polls showed that Gingrich and the Republican Party’s attempt to remove President Clinton from office was deeply unpopular among voters.

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Gingrich resigned the day after the election. Bill Clinton was impeached by the House but acquitted by the Senate.

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Flavor of the Month

"My middle name isn't Hubris, it's Leroy"

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I despise Newton Gingrinch, but I despise this kind of crap too:

Gingrich’s grim ground game

For all the talk about Newt Gingrich and his grand, big ideas — most of which are neither big nor grand — a vision doesn’t get voters to the polls; a campaign ground game does.

There’s a reasonable debate underway in many circles as to whether Gingrich’s recent rise is meaningful, a mirage, or a miracle — or perhaps some combination therein — and for what it’s worth, count me among the skeptics who still find it very hard to believe the disgraced former House Speaker is the likely nominee. But one of the factors driving my doubts is the fact that Gingrich’s entire campaign lacks basic, necessary components.

In an embarrassing display of organizational weakness, for example, Gingrich recently failed to qualify for the ballot in Missouri’s primary. The campaign structure, such as it is, simply didn’t follow through. Similarly, the Gingrich team was supposed to provide New Hampshire officials with a list of 40 committee volunteers who would represent the campaign as Republican National Convention delegates — but Gingrich’s staff couldn’t track down 40 willing supporters. Instead, they submitted a hand-scrawled, typo-ridden list of 27 people.

[...]

And there’s Iowa, where Gingrich is considered a very strong contender, despite the fact that he opened his very first campaign office in the state this week, just five weeks before the Iowa caucuses.

What’s going on? Politico reports that Gingrich has a “skeletal campaign operation,” which resembles a “mom-and-pop political operation.”

[...]

And if Gingrich somehow manages to do well despite the bare-bones operations in the early nominating states, how will the campaign manage once the race becomes a national contest against the well-organized Romney team? Neither Gingrich nor his aides have the foggiest idea.

Independent of whether Gingrich self-destructs and destroys his own chances, if his campaign falters down the stretch, this is likely to be a key reason why.

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If Steve Benen wants to spend his career as a party hack, he’s on the right track. If he wants to be a journalist instead of a journolista, he needs to be more professional.

It is not the media’s job to be gatekeepers of our elections. It isn’t up to them who gets to be a candidate. First it was Palin, then Bachmann, Perry, Cain and now Gingrich. As each one rose in the polls the journolistas swarmed to drag them down, leaving Obama’s preferred opponent (Romney) alone.

I find it ironic that the same people who praised Obama for his use of the internet and who decry the role of money in politics are criticizing someone who is campaigning on a shoestring and doing it effectively.

What Newt has done in this campaign is similar to what I envisioned Sarah Palin doing – using debates and free media to move into the front of the pack. It should be a blueprint for candidates we like and support.

There is a ton of stuff to use against Gingrinch. This isn’t it.

BTW – I saw something recently where someone referred to Gingrinch as the latest “Flavor of the Month,” and someone retorted that this is the month you want to be Flavor of the Month.

It doesn’t matter who was leading the pack back in June. It’s a turtle race.

I bet those Newt staffers that bailed on him to work for Rick Perry are feeling pretty stupid right now.

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The Dark Side of the Farce

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Via Hot Air, a new Ron Paul ad reminds Republicans that Newt talks out of both sides of his ass.

No Newt is good Newt.

This is an open thread.

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Cain “reassessing” candidacy

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National Review:

In a conference call this morning, Herman Cain told his senior staff that he is “reassessing” whether to remain in the race. He will make his final decision “over the next several days.”

“Obviously, you’re all aware of this recent firestorm that hit the news yesterday,” Cain began, his voice somber. “First thing I want to do is say to you what I have said publicly: I deny those charges, unequivocally. Secondly, I have known this lady for a number of years. And thirdly, I have been attempting to help her financially because she was out of work and destitute, desperate. So, thinking that she was a friend — and I have helped many friends — I now know that she wasn’t the friend that I thought she was. But it was a just a friendship relationship.”

“That being said, obviously, this is cause for reassessment,” he continued. “As you know, during the summer we had to make some reassessments based upon our financial situation. We were able to hang in there; we reassessed the situation and kept on going. We also did a reassessment after the Iowa straw poll and we made another reassessment after the Florida straw poll. When the previous two accusations, false accusations, came about, we made another assessment. The way we handled those was, we continued on with our schedule. We made an assessment about what was going to happen to our support. But our supporters, and even some folks that we didn’t have as supporters, they stood with us, and they showed it not only in terms of their verbal support, they showed it in terms of their dollars.”

“Now, with this latest one, we have to do an assessment as to whether or not this is going to create too much of a cloud, in some people’s minds, as to whether or not they would be able to support us going forth,” Cain said.

“Over the next several days, we are going to continue with the schedule as usual,” he said. “I’ve got a major speech tonight at Hillsdale College on national security and foreign policy, and I will deliver it with vim, vigor, and enthusiasm. And then tomorrow we’ve got some media appearances scheduled. So we’re going to continue until we complete our assessment over the next several days.”

“But if a decision is made, different than to plow ahead, you all will be the first to know,” he said. “So until that time, I want to continue to thank you all for your support, thank you for your prayers. It’s taken an emotional toll, but the people in the audience tonight will never know it.”

“It’s also taken a toll on my wife and family, as you would imagine,” he concluded. “Any time you put another cloud of doubt, unfortunately, in the court of public opinion, for some people, you’re guilty until proven innocent. And so, the public will have to decide whether they believe her or whether they believe me. That’s why we’re going to give it time, to see what type of response we get from our supporters.”

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I remember reading somewhere that once a couple starts talking about divorce the chances of them splitting up goes to ninety percent. I’m guessing the same is true of political campaigns – once you start talking about quitting you pretty much already have.

Cain would have been fun to watch in a general election campaign against Obama, but he had to get there first. Even if he is completely innocent of the allegations against him, he and his campaign staff did a horrible job of dealing with the crisis.

Like Bachmann and Perry before him, Herman Cain does not appear to be ready for prime time.

On the other hand, Newt Gingrinch may be the luckiest politician in the country right now.

I’m gonna start working on my Spanish. I want to get down there before the Mexicans build a fence.

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Political Tourette’s

Darth Gingrinch

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Jonah Goldberg:

Congratulations, and Don’t Get Cocky

Newt’s comeback, including the capstone of the Union Leader endorsement, is a truly remarkable tale. A lot of people — including many of us around here, starting with me — are eating crow over Gingrich’s return from the dead. And that’s good. It’s almost always a good thing when the conventional wisdom is overturned. It’s also good that, whether he wins or loses the nomination, he will be able to leave the field with his head held high. He clawed his way back through dogged will and ability. So again, good for him.

But I suspect and fear that Newt will interpret his comeback incorrectly and see his new front-runner status as proof he can discard all of the lessons-learned from his flame-out earlier this year. This is the moment where it’s going to be hardest for Gingrich to restrain his Newtness. This is the moment where perceived vindication breeds hubris. Already, he’s talking about teaching an online course from the White House, bragging that Obama can use teleprompters in their debates and trying to run as a general election candidate on immigration.

On their own, these are all fine even laudable. But when combined, among some Newt-watchers, they feel like omens that World Historical Newt is returning to the scene. He should fight that temptation and keep his nose to the grindstone.

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Even the Big Dawg had some semi-nice things to say about Newt over the weekend.

But Newt’s biggest enemy is himself. In addition to hubris he suffers from Political Tourette’s Syndrome. He’ll be cruising along, doing fine and then he gets the uncontrollable urge to say stupid things.

After Susan Smith was arrested for murdering her two sons, Newt blamed Democrats:

“I think that the mother killing the two children in South Carolina vividly reminds every American how sick the society is getting and how much we need to change things. The only way you get change is to vote Republican.”

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(It turned out that Smith’s GOP step-father had been shtupping her since she was fifteen.)

Here’s one of Newt’s other infamous pearls of wisdom:

“If combat means living in a ditch, females have biological problems staying in a ditch for thirty days because they get infections and they don’t have upper body strength. I mean, some do, but they’re relatively rare. On the other hand, men are basically little piglets, you drop them in the ditch, they roll around in it, doesn’t matter, you know.”

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If history is any guide, sooner or later Newt will self-destruct. The question is when.

According to the latest polls, if Newt exercises self-control for a few more months he stands a good chance of capturing the not-Romney vote along with the GOP nomination. But can he do it for a whole year?

My worst nightmare is Obama vs. Gingrinch.

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It’s almost over

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There was a GOP debate last night. I didn’t watch it.

There are only about two or three weeks of campaigning left, then everyone’s attention will be diverted by the holidays. January 3rd is the Iowa Caucuses, then there are about ten primaries and caucuses before Super Tuesday on March 6th. California votes in June. (Full schedule here)

Barring some new scandal or controversy the GOP field is pretty set. It’s going to be Romney vs. Not-Romney.

Michele Bachmann was the first Not-Romney, then came Rick Perry. Herman Cain had a shot at it and now Newt Gingrinch holds the position. Rick Santorum hasn’t been able to gain traction, Jon Huntsman should have run as a Democrat and Ron Paul is Ron Paul. Tim Pawlenty must be kicking himself.

The real question is whether all the Not-Romney votes will coalesce around one candidate. I predict it will be down to two candidates by February and over by Super Tuesday.

I could hold my nose and vote for Romney.

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I’m not watching another GOP Debate

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Especially not one that will star Newt Gingrinch. If you held a gun to my head and told me to choose Newt or Obama, I’d tell you to pull the trigger.

You can watch the debate if you want. This is an open thread.

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Newt defends Obama Doctine

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Apparently there was another GOP debate last night. I missed it because Harry Potter and the Whatever was on and I was too lazy to reach for the remote.

During the debate Newt Gingrinch defended the Obama Doctrine of remote control assassination of anyone the POTUS decrees is an “enemy combatant.”

“War without end, forever and ever. Amen“

(h/t Legal Insurrection)

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Let’s get ready to rumble!

"Never underestimate the power of the Dark Side"

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Gingrich: I’d trail Obama around country until he accepts debate challenge

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich promised on Friday evening in Iowa that if he wins his party’s nomination, he will follow President Obama around the country until Obama accepts a challenge to participate in Lincoln-Douglas style debates.

“I promise you, if you will help me on January 3, if I end up as the nominee, in my acceptance speech, if the president has not yet agreed, I will announce from that day forward for the rest of the campaign, the White House will be my scheduler,” Gingrich said. “And wherever the president appears, I will appear four hours later.”

Gingrich said he would challenge Obama to seven Lincoln-Douglas style debates lasting three hours each with no moderator and only a timekeeper. “I will concede that he can use a teleprompter,” Gingrich said.

[...]

Gingrich predicted Obama would accept the debate challenge, in part because of wanting to preserve media coverage, but also out of ego.

“How can a Harvard Law Review editor, the greatest orator in the modern Democratic party, admit to being afraid to be on the same platform as a West Georgia college professor?” he asked.

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I have despised Newt Gingrinch for almost two decades now and I’m not feeling any warmer towards him now. He lusts for power and he would be far more dangerous than Barack Obama as president. Obama wants to be president so he can enjoy the fame and perks of power. Gingrinch wants to rule the world.

He fought the Big Dawg and the Big Dawg won. I thought his political career was over. Like Sauron, he’s back.

But I have respect for Newt’s abilities. He is the master of the soundbyte. He has an instinctive grasp of how television works, and he knows that a memorable 10 second clip is better than a wonky 10 minute statement.

If the fate of the nation didn’t hang in the balance (we’d be fucked either way) then I would love to watch him debate Teleprompter Jeebus. It would have that epic “Freddy vs. Jason” appeal about it.

BTW – Douglas won the election.

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