Drawing the wrong conclusion

"Yon Cassius has a lean and hungry look"


CNN:

Christian right, Tea Party still wary of front-runner Romney

In June, FreedomWorks invited 150 Tea Party organizers to a planning session where participants were asked for their candidate of choice in the 2012 field. Only one Tea Party activist at the meeting supported Romney, [FreedomWorks president Matt] Kibbe said.

Tea Party conservatives remain outraged over Romney’s record on health care reform. In recent months, he has defended the plan he signed into law as governor of Massachusetts, in which residents are required to buy health insurance.

“Wary” isn’t the word I would use to describe the Tea Party’s feelings about Romney. “Despise” is more like it.

Tina Korbe at Hot Air:

From a horse-race perspective, it looks to me like Allah is really right: Romney might actually eventually need former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin or Texas Gov. Rick Perry to enter the race, just to split the Tea Party vote, presently concentrated on Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), who has steadily gained ground against Romney in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

To be sure, Romney still comfortably leads in fundraising (sans a Bachmann shocker — she hasn’t yet released her fundraising numbers for the second quarter) and in the polls. Perhaps he could win the primary without much support from the Tea Party and the so-called Christian Right. But he would absolutely need that support to win the general election. By the same token, to actually win the presidency, any strictly Tea Party candidate would need the mainstream support Romney seems most likely to garner.


Wrong, wrong, wrong.

If Palin and Bachmann both run, at least one of them will drop out early, maybe even before the Iowa caucuses. Mitt won’t win Iowa and he’ll probably win Hew Hampshire. Then we get to see how much the GOP base dislikes him.

Mitt can raise a gazillion dollars and get all the establishment endorsements he wants, the base won’t care. The motivated voters will be the Tea Partiers – they despise Romney and hate the GOP establishment almost as much as they hate Obama.

If Romney wins the GOP nomination the base will do what they did in 2008 – stay home.


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115 Responses to Drawing the wrong conclusion

  1. wmcb says:

    Romney has been tone-deaf to the genuine populism that has sprung up and spread in his own party.

    They DESPISE him. They DESPISE Newt. They DESPISE crony capitalism. They DESPISE the machinations of the Party Machine that tries to manipulate who they get to vote for.

    And despite my disagreements on some matters of policy, I say more power to ’em. Power to the People. I’d frankly rather see the R party in their hands than in the hands of the corrupt scum-sucking lobbyist-toadying dirtbags who’ve run it for years.

  2. DeniseVB says:

    Speaking of Power to the People…..one of my favorite videos:

    • wmcb says:

      That’s a GREAT video. My favorite sign in that montage is the “kiss our astroturf” one.

  3. angienc says:

    I don’t like Romney either — he is as much of a corporate tool as Obama is & really, if it is him v. Obama the result will be the same EXCEPT the alleged “left” will start protesting shit again, instead of just sitting back & calling it “11th dimensional chess” like they do when Obama does it.

    Which is why I want McCotter to pull a miracle. It’s about time we had a bald POTUS again. It is only the men with the huge brains that go bald (just ask my dad).

  4. elliesmom says:

    “If Romney wins the GOP nomination the base will do what they did in 2008 – stay home.” You betcha.

  5. ralphb says:

    If the GOP can’t do better than Romney, then it’s definitely time for another party of some description. Bush = Obama = Romney, just what we don’t need.

  6. Passeryby says:

    Mitt will be the GOP’s Nominee. He will wrap up the nomination by Supper Tuesday. I do agree with you that he will likely lose Iowa & will certainly win NH. But he will have the momentum after this & is bound to win many of the states after this especially the big states (NY, CA, TX etc). The General Election Race will start very early next year.

    Mitt has every thing going for him. He has the most money, most name recognition, he is leading in all the GOP Primary polls (states and head to head match-up), he has the best favorable rating among the GOP candidates with voter & he is the most electable (He is the only one competitive with Obama). He has all these benefits thanks to Huckabee dropping out.

    • wmcb says:

      LOL! Oh, look, our “whining about the poor oppressed menz” troll is back!

      The Obots must be getting askeered, if they are being sent out to do lame psy-ops and push the “reasonable and inevitable” Mittens.

      I don’t think the grassroots R’s are going to let you pick their candidate for them, cupcake. They seem to be much more savvy than the Dems were in 2008. And they don’t give on flying shit what the media or the cocktail country club set says anymore, either. This is going to be fun. 😀

    • angienc says:

      I call bullshit on this:

      He is the only one competitive with Obama

      That is an Obama WH talking point because they know the only man Obama has a chance against is Romney because ObamaCare is neutralized with RomneyCare.*** Once the GE starts, the Obama camp will start their dirty, muckraking ads against him on his religion, the dog incident, etc. It will still be close, but close enough that the same election fraud they used last time will get Obama the win.

      ANYBODY ELSE BEATS OBAMA. ***

      ***Bachmann can be beaten as well, because she’s a woman & Obama will “Palinize” her with the same sexist shit he loves.

    • Rocky Hussein Squirrel says:

      most name recognition

      I guess you never heard of Sarah Palin. What country are you from?

    • Sandress says:

      Not a chance. He doesn’t have the numbers, his funding will all be corporate, and he doesn’t stand a chance with his own party, let alone in the general. If he does win, it will be by coronation alone.

  7. 1539days says:

    Tea Party supporters (because tea party goers are actually a small part of this contingent) had the advantage of seeing what a Republican consensus candidate caused in 2008. In that case, Romney was the establishment’s choice for a conservative candidate even though Huckabee was the populaist favorite. When Huckabee inally dropped out, a lot of Republicans picked McCain for the simple reason he wasn’t Romney. Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans punished Romeny for running nasty attack ads against his primary opponent.

    Romeny’s $50 million is chump change in an election season that will go well over a billion dollars. The real money comes in after someone wins a primary. Still, Sarah Palin will see a lot of money roll in when she announces. She’s just better off not wasting her supporters’ money until it really matters.

    • ralphb says:

      Romney’s $50 million was a target which he missed. He only raised $18.25.

    • Three Wickets says:

      Most of the campaign money typically pays for TV ads, and though TV ads will still be important, they won’t matter nearly as much next year with the twitter and facebook and the google plus and the cable talking heads doing their best to alienate people. I think it’s a new game, and Palin is probably the most skilled at it. The twitter townhall deal that BO tried to swing yesterday was an embarrassment.

  8. ralphb says:

    I usually ignore AP at Hot Air. He was a Romney supporter in ’08 and has never stopped.

  9. ralphb says:

    Obama Didn’t Embrace Twitter, At First

    President Obama’s decision to hold a Twitter Town Hall was an about-face for the commander-in-chief who only months ago in private conversations with aides would scoff at the 140-character social media format for its lack of depth and sophistication, according to sources with knowledge of those conversations.

    In particular, Obama would get miffed at the news media for picking up the Twitter comments made by ex-GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. “He complained that ‘They hang on her every word and report it without even questioning her directly,’” one informed source said this morning, quoting the President.

    Still living rent free inside his head.

    • Mr. Mike says:

      Obama wasn’t going to support same sex marriage or gays in the service until his numbers dropped so an about face on Twitter is no surprise. Perhaps he thinks that’s where all the Kossholes went.

    • Lola-at-Large says:

      ““He complained that ‘They hang on her every word and report it without even questioning her directly,’” one informed source said this morning, quoting the President.”

      LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL! You mean…she’s getting the Obama treatment?

  10. ralphb says:

    This is chutzpah… “DSCC asking Kochs for cash”

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0711/DSCC_asking_Kochs_for_cash.html

    and it’s pathetic. But the Koch brothers struck back 😉

  11. JeanLouise says:

    HuffPo has a post about a downright scary ‘marriage pledge’ that some nutjob in Iowa is demanding that GOP candidates sign. Bachmann was first in line to sign it.

    I don’t think that Romney will even get the nomination let alone win the general election. Christian conservatives will not vote for a Mormon.

    I don’t see why anyone would think that either Palin or Bachmann will drop out of the race should Palin decide to run. They’re both ambitious women (I don’t mean that as a slam) and neither appears to be afraid of competition.

    • ralphb says:

      I think there is room for Palin and Bachmann to both run, at least for some time period. I do think the field will start to clear fairly fast once the primaries get underway.

      • PJ says:

        Ralph – I’m not being a jerk this time – is there any GOP nominee that you wouldn’t vote for over Obama?

        • Sandress says:

          I know you weren’t asking me, but were I in a position to vote, I’d be hard pressed to come up with a GOP candidate that I wouldn’t vote for over Obama, despite the fact that ideologically I’m a far-left liberal semi-socialist. We’re going to get completely fucked regardless, might as well have it done by someone who is capable of remorse.

        • PJ says:

          I’m with you!

        • ralphb says:

          Probably not but, if a 3rd party candidate was available that would be more comfortable with some of them 😉

        • PJ says:

          Ralph – who would make you go 3rd party? Romney? Huntsman? Who?

        • ralphb says:

          Bachmann, Romney, Newt.

          I like Huntsman, I think, but don’t really know. He seems to have nothing to say and no outside the beltway support. Maybe he’s in the wrong parties’ primary field?

        • PJ says:

          Thanks Ralph. I seriously wanted to know.

  12. PJ says:

    I think Romney could win.

    • angienc says:

      Yeah, he *could* win, because as WMCB points out, a herpetic goat can win against Obama BUT Obama probably has the best chance against Romney because the ultra right-wingers are stubborn & more than willing to cut their noses off to spite their faces (as they did with McCain in 2008).

      • jjmtacoma says:

        Romney is a turn-off to the social conservatives because he used to be moderate socially.

        • angienc says:

          Exactly jjmtacoma. They will never forgive him for being pro-choice. GAH!

          Really, this “enemy of my enemy is my friend” thing is hard. 🙂

        • jjmtacoma says:

          They will stay home unless obama messes with SS, then I think the Republicans will GOTV because even though they complain about it they LOVE social programs.

      • PJ says:

        So who do you think would be best? (Seriously)

        • angienc says:

          Seriously? Hillary Clinton.

        • jjmtacoma says:

          Me too Angie. I think she is the only one smart enough with a working backbone to navigate out of this mess.

        • PJ says:

          Absolutely. But she’s not running. Who is next best?

        • wmcb says:

          Well of course! But I assumed she meant out of the R’s. 😀

        • ralphb says:

          Hillary without a doubt!

        • angienc says:

          I know PJ meant of the Rs but it doesn’t matter to me. I’d rather someone a little less “fundie-friendly” like Hunstman, Pawlenty, McCotter,* heck, even Romney seem to be (ie, the fact that the fundies don’t like them works in their favor, as far as I’m concerned). But really, I don’t care. I’m voting against Obama, not for whoever the R is.

          *McCotter also has a special place in my heart for being so danged witty & anti-status quo (he went to MI state law school, for the love of god!) but I think he’ll be a typical Republican as far as “governing” goes — better than GWB but on par with GHWB, and I can’t get all that excited about that.

      • wmcb says:

        The only R candidate I would feel fairly comfortable voting for would be Palin. I’d be okay with McCotter too, I think.

      • Valhalla says:

        If Romney’s the R nominee, it will end up being the contest of the stay-at-home bases — the disillusioned/defecting Democrats or the hostile Republicans. Anything goes in that situation.

        • wmcb says:

          Exactly.

        • DeniseVB says:

          I have a feeling Republicans won’t be staying home in 2012. Though I do worry, since Obama’s not being primaried, many Obots will vote for the worst of the R’s. Even if it means having to re-register to GOP.

          I’m in an open state, and in my Dembot days, we always rallied the troops to vote for the most beatable in the general if our guy/gal was unopposed in the primaries.

  13. Three Wickets says:

    Krugman sounds worried. What Obama Wants

    On Thursday, President Obama met with Republicans to discuss a debt deal. We don’t know exactly what was proposed, but news reports before the meeting suggested that Mr. Obama is offering huge spending cuts, possibly including cuts to Social Security and an end to Medicare’s status as a program available in full to all Americans, regardless of income.

    Obviously, the details matter a lot, but progressives, and Democrats in general, are understandably very worried. Should they be? In a word, yes.

    • ralphb says:

      Speaking of vapid pundits, poor EJ Dionne will have to work extra hard to forget about Obama’s SS and Medicare hose job.

      • JeanLouise says:

        He’s one of the many who had their noses so far up Obama’s ass that they were breathing through his throat. I don’t even read his crap anymore.

        The only one that I miss is Eugene Robinson. I used to really like his stuff until I googled all of his colums on the 2008 primary. He boosted Obama and was snide about Hillary from the fall of 2007 on.

        • ralphb says:

          I stopped reading both in ’08 and have never looked back. Robinson was better though.

        • Mary says:

          Robinson was also a BIG player in the media gaggle that trashed Al Gore, giving us 8 years of George W. Bush.

          He runs with his crowd, whatever the crowd narrates.

    • ralphb says:

      From Krugman. Unbelievable. The GOP is largely against those cuts.

      It’s worth noting that even Republicans weren’t suggesting cuts to Social Security; this is something Mr. Obama and those he listens to apparently want for its own sake.

  14. WMCB says:

    I’d vote for a blind three-legged herpetic goat to get Obama out of office, myself. Didn’t say I’d like the goat, support the goat, or agree with the goat. But I will damn sure pull the lever.

    • PJ says:

      WTH is a herpetic goat? Ha!

    • ralphb says:

      OK, you talked me into it.

      Diseased Goat/2012

    • wmcb says:

      Bachmann and Romney would be the two that I’d have to hold my nose the most for – she because her particular brand of fundie-ism skeeves me out, and him because he’s a dyed-in-the-wool corporatist.

      Note re: Bachmann: she has a lot of positive qualities, and I think she’s strong and intelligent and accomplished, etc. I don’t think she’s an evil hateful witch. Just sadly misguided in some areas, which strikes a weird contrast to how sensible she is in other ways. It’s almost jarring.

      But even those two I’ll vote for if I must. If it looks like the R has Obama whipped in a landslide, I might feel comfortable going third party, but I doubt it.

      • ralphb says:

        I honestly don’t think I could vote for Bachmann. My daughter is gay and in one of the best long term relationships I’ve ever seen. It would be a betrayal of too much that I believe too deeply.

        • wmcb says:

          I can respect that. I’m hoping it won’t come to that, though.

        • PJ says:

          Good for you Ralph.

        • ralphb says:

          I don’t think it will. If Palin doesn’t run and Romney doesnt get any fire, I don’t know who winds up with it. I would have said Pawlenty but he has been terrible.

        • ralphb says:

          Maybe Perry gets in and takes it? I think he can do it but he’s a corporate creature himself, though no Romney for sure.

        • wmcb says:

          I think if Palin doesn’t run, then Perry’s in. Just my opinion.

        • timothy2010t says:

          Gay here and Bachman and Santorem are the two that I could never vote for

        • angienc says:

          I gotta agree with timothy — I’m not gay, but I don’t think I’d vote for Santorium or Bachmann. I’d vote 3rd party.

          Although, I’m a little torn about Bachmann because I truly do believe in the 30% solution & if it’s close, I *might* hold my nose & vote for her. I won’t vote for Santorium even if Jesus Christ himself came down & told me to.

        • wmcb says:

          Oh, gawd, a Santorum/Obama choice would be “Just shoot me now and get it over with” territory.

        • ralphb says:

          No one will get a chance to vote for Santorum.

        • myiq2xu says:

          Obama vs. Gingrinch would have me brushing up on my Spanish.

  15. JeanLouise says:

    I’d slit my wrists before I’d vote for Santorum.

  16. timothy2010t says:

    Sarah Palin reminds me of a woman I knew when I was about 12. She was a natural beauty and a single mother, bartender and student. She loved to jog and paid no attention to what was said about her and plenty was. Small steel town garbage. My parents were no fans of her but she’d rap on my window almost every morning and ask if i’d sit with her kids while she took a run. We lived in row homes. I heard her called slut/whore/tramp by my own grandmother. She was an anathema. Yet she prevailed. Bad snowstorm. She shoveled her own and then tackled the walkways of the seniors before they were even awake. The people around us were cruel but it never changed who she was and she always smiled and asked neighborly questions of her most violent detractors. She was/is self possessed. not defined by the world about her but rather from within.

    • Three Wickets says:

      Yup, I hope she runs.

    • PJ says:

      So you’re a Sarah fan?

      • angienc says:

        Seriously, draw your own conclusions, PJ.

        But word to the wise: we are “fans” of no politicians around here. We support or admire some, but we leave the idol worship to the Obots.

      • timothy2010t says:

        I have respect for her and cannot say the same about anyone else in the running. But not a fan. Bambi/Dick/waffles/stutters has fans. I think someone who respects herself and is devoted to her family might do a bang up job of running the country.

    • angienc says:

      Exactly why I like her & why back in 2008 I knew Obama was more “status quo” than Palin will ever be.

      • ralphb says:

        She may be the one shot we have for breaking up our monopolistic business culture and the corrupt crony capitalism as it’s currently practiced by both parties. I really want her to run.

  17. timothy2010t says:

    Never will I forget in 08 when I took my baby girl to the zoo on a weekday mid afternoon spring day– I had a Hillary sticker on my jacket and as me and my little one cascaded through the rather small Pittsburgh Zoo I kept hearing little digs from the ladies who lunch behind me about obama love and negative Hillary. I ignored as that is what you do in polite society./ Well then we got to the eating area and a bought my brat a 500 dollar ice cream monstrosity and of course the Real Housewives of Pittsburgh(Wanna be’s) take the table behind me. I am eating a million dollar ice cream cone with a brat and I hear them spewing racist garbage. All of the noise they generated was for me to hear. I tried to be a grownup– but eventually I turned around and called them on talking to the back of my head. Very bizarre as they called me racist and feared for my daughter. Then ugly me came out. I called them commen drips who married well and had a few brats but you are dull as paint. never been exciting never will be and i pity your kids for having a damp mp for a mother strung out on anti-aging glop. Irony I hated what I said so much I cried’
    By the way when i was a kid we had this thing if you said something bad you had to put a quarter in a jar. I am working with a few people in different fields were if you say/do something you make a donation to St Judes.

  18. Mary says:

    In the end, because Obama is such a disaster for the country, if Romney is the nominee, Tea Partiers will vote for him.

    This year, it’s Anybody but Obama.

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