His Panic

(Your vote is your voice)


Daily Caller:

Obama huddles with Hispanic groups to woo support for 2012 race

President Barack Obama is hosting a White House meeting for Hispanic advocacy groups Monday, just a week after a Gallup poll of Hispanic voters revealed potentially lethal news for his re-election chances.

The Gallup poll showed that Obama’s support among Hispanics fell almost a third in the last 18 months, down from 73 percent in December 2009 to 52 percent in June 2011. That’s very bad news for Democrats, because Obama’s re-election strategy depends on a Hispanic landslide in swing states such as Florida and Virginia.

[…]

On July 7, White House senior aide David Plouffe said the president’s re-election campaign would win on a wave of votes from blacks and Hispanics. “We believe that we can improve over what we did in 2008 in turnout in some of those base Obama groups,” he told reporters at a breakfast organized by Bloomberg’s political news operation in Washington, D.C.

The Hispanic community is critical to the campaign, because it includes a large pool of potentially sympathetic new voters who could offset Obama’s low ratings of 38 percent among white voters and 39 percent among seniors.


Which is why Marco Rubio would make a good VP choice for the GOPers. If he drags in a big chunk of Hispanic voters that will put Florida in the GOP column and might even put California in play.

Simply putting a Hispanic-American on the ticket is no guarantee however. That is because (contrary to common belief) the Hispanic community is not monolithic. That community includes Cuban-Americans (like Rubio,) Puerto Ricans, Mexican-Americans as well as people of Central-American, South-American and Dominican descent.

It’s difficult to generalize because these sub-groups do not all care about the same things. For instance, illegal immigration is not a big issue with Cubans and Puerto Ricans. On the other hand Hispanics tend to be conservative on some issues like abortion because the majority of them are Catholic.

One dirty little secret – they don’t all like each other.


BTW – Remember Donna Brazile’s “new coalition?”

Obama’s support among Latinos is also complicated by the tensions between Hispanic and black communities. This became visible in the Democrats’ 2008 primary races, when most Hispanic-subgroups supported Sen. Hillary Clinton more than then-Sen. Obama. In Texas, for example, Clinton outpolled Obama by 18 points among Hispanic men and 33 percent among Hispanic women, most of whom have roots in Mexico. Clinton also out-polled Obama in the Puerto Rican primary vote by 36 percent. Some Hispanics tell phone-surveyors, Anderson said, that Obama “‘is catering too much to blacks’ and if you’re picking that up on a survey, it’s out there.”

That’s the Achilles’ heel of identity politics. When you cater to one group you run the risk of alienating others.



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22 Responses to His Panic

  1. Valhalla says:

    Sounds like Rubio wouldn’t have to sway a particularly big chunk of Hispanic voters, only a little chunk to flip the balance.

    • myiq2xu says:

      When you look at the electoral math it comes down to a few key states where the races should be close. Florida is one of them.

      If a blue state like California is in play then Obama is already toast.

  2. glennmcgahee says:

    Rubio won’t do it. There’s alot of bagggage in his dept from Florida and whoever said that the hispanic groups are not monolithic has that exactly right. They don’t like each other. OTOH, Obama has lost support of almost everyone I’ve met. People are so disappointed that his big build up is nothing to write home about. There’s a legacy there now, no amount of garbage campaigning is gonna persuade people who can now see with their own eyes what he is. A do nothing. Certainly not transformational. Thats how we got the biggest bunch of losers elected last year I’ve ever seen in politics. It was a mandate against Obama and all he stands for whatever that is.

    • Mary says:

      “Hispanic groups don’t like each other”

      Not to mention that the African American community feels Obama et al have lavished attention on Hispanics at their expense.

      Black Agenda Report ain’t happy with The One.

  3. myiq2xu says:

    New York Post prostitution story gets shakier

    The New York Post’s “scoop” on Dominique Strauss Kahn’s accuser is getting fishier, to the extent that’s possible. The paper appears to have had documentation challenging the reliability of its only source in a story alleging that the accuser had worked as a prostitute.

  4. Mr. Mike says:

    The best Obama can hope for is disaffected Democrats stay home on election day. His worst nightmare will be a republican candidate with cross over appeal.

    Depending on his numbers next spring and how he stacks up against the republican candidate, I think that the House might start an investigation into Obama’s Chicago days. It doesn’t have to go anywhere but as long as he can’t play the race or underdog cards it will further cut into his voter support.

    Come to think of it, I wonder if Axlerod is rummaging though the sock drawer looking for a Hispanic to replace Biden. Beat the republicans at their own game.

  5. Mary says:

    Speaking of Florida/Hispanics/Rubio:

    New Florida Sunshine State News Poll shows sharp move away from Obama (especially Independents) after last jobs report (article at RCP).

    Disapprove: 54
    Approve: 38

    Key quote: “Romney beats the president in hypothetical match-up as Independents swing toward GOP.”

    • Mr. Mike says:

      Problem with Romney is the Nutbag Wing of the GOP will stay home like they did with McCain. Will the independents be enough to make up the difference?

      If they go with Bachmann or Santorum the sane republicans will sit it out and there’s no way independents will vote for either of them.

      This election might be decided by who doesn’t vote.

      • WMCB says:

        I don’t think as many R’s would stay home for Romney as they did for McCain. I’m hearing on the conservative blogs that they want Obama out too badly, and most (not all) will suck it up and vote for Mittens if they have to.

        • Mary says:

          Agree. While they may not like it if Romney gets the nomination, they’ll vote for him if he does. En masse.

          Getting Obama OUT is the true goal. Period.

        • WMCB says:

          Yup. They are going to fight a hard primary. But the consensus I’m seeing on the right is that the ticket is Anybody/Ham Sammich once it comes to the general against Obama.

  6. foxyladi14 says:

    he wants to have his cake and eat it too 😆

  7. votermom says:

    For instance, illegal immigration is not a big issue with Cubans and Puerto Ricans. On the other hand Hispanics tend to be conservative on some issues like abortion because the majority of them are Catholic.

    It’s even more complicated than that. Anecdotal, but many of the non-white legal immigrants I know support some kind of pathway for immigrants who came in legally but then fell out of status (their employing sponsor cons them, fires them, or goes bankrupt, for example, etc) but resent immigrants who come illegally in the first pace (fake docs, or jump the border, or come in as tourists then deliberately plan to disappear) because they feel that makes them all look bad and feeds into the discrimination against them.
    Also very true about supporting Catholic values.
    Many of them really liked W’s campaign stances on both counts.
    Also anecdotal, but many Catholics & Hispanics have no problem culturally with matriarchal women leaders.

    • WMCB says:

      It’s also complicated because many Hispanics do no care for the La Raza open borders crowd – at least here in San Antonio.

      A lot of the drug and gang violence affects THEIR neighborhoods first, and many have friends/family still in Mexico who give them updates on how much of a warzone it is down there. Many that I talk to have no desire to see that crap spill over up here. Unlike 10 years ago, saying we need border security is not as much of a non-starter with Hispanics as it used to be.

      • myiq2xu says:

        Illegal immigrants can’t vote and there is a split between the immigrant community and those who were born and raised here.

        • WMCB says:

          Yeah. Those who have homes and jobs and lives here used to be kinda like “Meh – don’t make it a big deal” when it was just gardeners and carpenters coming over. Now that there is crime and violence coming over, plus a horrible economy that can’t absorb more workers, they are much more likely to want better border security.

  8. Pips says:

    Well, I never! Someone might take this not only as an insult but doubly so.

    … not that I disagree with the sentiment though. 😉

  9. djmm says:

    Wonder where his panic is where women voters are concerned. I don’t see many women singing “I’ve gotta crush on Obama” these days.

    djmm

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