Pass something unpopular if you want to win!

“Everyone knows, when you make an assumption, you make an ass out of “u” and “umption.” – Mitch Henessey

Greg Sargent:

If moderate Dems vote No on jobs bill, they’re only hurting themselves

Top pollster Stanley Greenberg is not shy about criticizing the White House when he thinks it’s warranted, and his opinion is widely respected by Democrats in Congress. So if Greenberg tells moderate Senate Democrats that they vote against Obama’s jobs bill at their own peril, will they believe him?

In an interview with me this morning, Greenberg made a strong case that moderate Senate Democrats in red states would be foolish and shortsighted if they vote against the American Jobs Act today, as some of them appear to be prepared to do. The White House and Dems have been railing against Republicans for opposing the jobs bill, but if a few Senate Dems defect, and a simple majority of the Senate doesn’t support it, that will dilute the Dem message that Republicans are the key obstacle to progress on the economy.

But Greenberg’s case for voting for the bill went significantly beyond this concern about overall party messaging. He argued that moderate Democrats who vote against it are actually imperiling their own reelection chances.

“They reduce their risks for reelection by showing support for a jobs bill that’s going to be increasingly popular as voters learn more about it,” Greenberg said. “They have to be for something on the economy, and this the kind of proposal they should support. If I were advising them, I’d say you want to be backing a jobs bill with middle class tax cuts paid for by tax hikes on millionaires. Moderate voters in these states very much want to raise taxes on the wealthy to meet our obligations.”

Crucially, Greenberg pointed out that if moderate Dems are hoping to show distance from the President and his low approval numbers by voting against the jobs bill, they run another risk: Dem disunity on the economy could backfire on them.

“Voting No would increase their risk of losing,” Greenberg said bluntly. “Democrats would look divided on their central agenda. In the end you all go down with the ship here. Why would you send Democrats back to the Senate if they are divided on the most important issue facing people? Here you can show unity and purpose, which Democrats have not had an opportunity to do during budget negotiations.”

That’s a mighty big assumption.

“They reduce their risks for reelection by showing support for a jobs bill that’s going to be increasingly popular as voters learn more about it,” Greenberg said

You know what happens when you make an assumption.

Do you have any poll numbers showing that it’s popular now? If it’s not popular now, why should it get more popular later? The Senate Democrats on the bubble are the same ones elected back in 2006. They won seats that normally would have gone to the GOP and next year they’ll probably go back.

There was a window of opportunity when the Democrats could have passed anything they wanted. They wasted it on a bad stimulus bill and Obamacare. Both bills are hugely unpopular even though one hasn’t even taken effect yet.

Now Obama is trying to use Bad Stimulus II to get himself reelected.

Don’t get me wrong – I’d be all for it if I thought there was even a decent chance it would help. But tax cuts don’t create jobs. Not only that but the tax cuts Obama is proposing will affect the solvency of Social Security, giving the GOP more ammunition in their quest to “reform” it.

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15 Responses to Pass something unpopular if you want to win!

  1. Rocky Hussein Squirrel says:

    Even if the Senate passes it it’s a no-hoper in the House.

    • Mary says:

      And Obama knew that, going in.

      His own Dems won’t pass it as “all or nothing.” He knows that too.

      He’s not working on policy. He’s working on politics.

      Once a manipulative dick, always a manipulative dick.

  2. yttik says:

    I actually believe the Jobs bill is going to hurt us worse then the bailouts or the stimulus or Obamacare. It’s not a jobs bill, it’s an anti- jobs bill and we are going to be in deep shit if it passes.

    It cuts the funds going towards SS without actually benefiting either employees or employers. It will probably increase employer mandated unemployment taxes at the state level. It will create more crony capitalism and no bid contracts, reducing the amount of opportunity for the rest of the private sector.

    It will also create a funding bottleneck like the green jobs money did. We’ve only trained a few people to do green jobs and most of the money remains unspent, because nobody really knows what a green job is and nobody is really looking to hire any green job employees. Remember when we were going to put people to work weatherizing houses?

    And lastly, it’s going to create a crisis of confidence, an attitude problem in the private sector. People understand that a jobs bill costs money and they’re going to be frozen, waiting for the tax bill to come in the mail. With all this additional spending people will feel uncertain about the stability of the US economy and be reluctant to take any of the risks involved with hiring and expanding.

    I kid you not, the best thing the US gov could do right now is to announce that they’re getting out of the job creation business. I have three jobs waiting for me the moment they make that announcement. Until them, I’m screwed and so is the rest of the country.

  3. DandyTiger says:

    There is only one benefit to Senate Democrats passing this bill: Obama’s reelection chances. If Senate Democrats don’t pass it, Obama can’t blame Republican’s for not passing the jobs bill. And the do nothing Republican’s is about all he has left. Well that and the worn out race card of course. What’s he going to do, admit he’s an incompetent idiot that can’t put together coherent policy?

  4. Three Wickets says:

  5. Three Wickets says:

    Obama camp: GOP trying to destroy economy on purpose Spicy OFA email:

    The U.S. Senate is supposed to vote on the American Jobs Act as early as tonight. It’s a bill that will put people to work immediately, and it contains proposals that members of both parties have said in the past that they’d support. But Senate Republicans want to block it. Not because they have a plan that creates jobs right now — not one Republican, in Congress or in the presidential race, does. They only have a political plan.

    Their strategy is to suffocate the economy for the sake of what they think will be a political victory. They think that the more folks see Washington taking no action to create jobs, the better their chances in the next election. So they’re doing everything in their power to make sure nothing gets done. There’s still time for principled Republican senators to declare their independence from this kamikaze political strategy. And the only way it can happen is if they hear from constituents like you today.

  6. DeniseVB says:

    I’m kinda numb right now. Pass/Fail/Fail/Pass/Puke. I’m just sorry Obama had to kick off his re-election campaign at his inauguration, so it seems. Can’t stand Michelle and her speaking down to military families and “fat” kids, while hubby cuts food stamps and military benefits for her “programs”. Geesh. I was a fan of Mamie, Jackie, Lady Bird, Pat, Rosalyn, Nancy, Barbara, Hillary, and Laura. From the WH Historical prospective, and as a member for over 30 years, Mrs. Obama is destroying the legacy for me. Sorry/rant.

  7. propertius says:

    We’ll all love it once we learn what’s in it, but we have to pass it to find out.

    That sounds strangely familiar, but I can’t remember where I heard it before.

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