2012 GOP Field May Not Be Closed

Betcha thought it’s too late for anyone to jump into race?

From Rhodes Cook at Sabato’s Crystal Ball:

Conventional wisdom is that the Republican presidential field is set, and that it is much too late for a new candidate to enter the race.

In years past, that would be absolutely correct. Over the last few decades, dozens of primaries and caucuses have been shoe-horned into the opening weeks of the election year, with the tendency on the Republican side for the front-running candidate to score a quick knockout.

But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real.

This is not to say that it will happen, but simply to note that it could. Such a scenario could not have unfolded in 2008, when the early January events were followed in short order by an early February Super Tuesday vote-fest that involved nearly half the country.

But the elongated layout of the nominating calendar this time provides the opportunity for a late-starting candidate to emerge. Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible.

Cook makes the case for a window for someone to jump in in February with charts and further explanations here.

Which means my late-primary vote might actually count this year.

And which also means this is an actual possibility…


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41 Responses to 2012 GOP Field May Not Be Closed

  1. votermom says:

    Another headache day today – I hate winter.

  2. Rosemary for headaches. Rub the leaves between your hands and inhale the scent. Better still, scatter the crushed leaves over a bowl of steaming water and inhale the vapors.

    As for late primary entries- I have been wondering what the cut off dates are for the GE. Can a candidate running on an independent or third party ticket skip the primaries altogether and go directly to the GE ballot? That would just tickle me pink if one of the ladies flat out decided not to play by the boyz rules in “their” game.

  3. votermom says:

    Sarah on Hannity last night:

    “Too bad we don’t have some dude running named Generic Republican Candidate.”

  4. dorkle says:

    I wonder why Sarah’s family did not want her to go through with running for President. I mean they have had everything vicious done to them already, why not go for broke?

    People hate her for no apparent reason at all, so might as well give them one. lol Although, she is making bank cashing that hater check.

    • votermom says:

      Here’s what I worte on C4P on that:
      One of the things I thought was a possible reason why Sarah said No on Oct 5 is that the GOP elite convinced her that if she runs and wins the nomination, they will throw the general election to Obama. (I’m already half convinced they threw 2008.)
      She thinks they can do that, and she feels defeating Obama is goal number one, so she stepped aside. As long as they go after Obama.

      These two interviews (last night) are consistent with that scenario. She wants the focus to be on defeating Obama. She is resigned to getting a flawed nominee, because the elites will not allow someone to win who will challenge them – they would rather give Obama a 2nd term.

      It doesn’t change the equation for me. We are being coerced into false choices; the concept of voting ROGUE looks better and better all the time.


      • Terry Spears says:

        As I am in failing health the 2012 election could very possibly be my last chance to vote for the person that I deem to be the best choice for president in our countries history.

        I will be writing in Sarah Palin for president.

      • LandOLincoln says:

        OF COURSE they threw the 2008 election–GOP support for the McCain/Palin ticket was lukewarm at best. Obama was their man then–and still is, though of course they’re now pretending he’s some kind of flaming Liberal so they can put someone even further right in the WH.

        • LandOLincoln says:

          BTW, that there is a little ol’ black bear, not a grizzly. There’s hundreds of them living in the Sandias and in times of drought like now it’s an almost daily occurrence for people living in the foothills to find one or more of them in their backyard.

          One of those poor critters was so desperately hungry last summer she made it all the way over to the west side of Abq, just a couple of blocks from me, but of course they’re hibernating now.

  5. DeniseVB says:

    VM – do you have a *live* Christmas tree ? My husband suffered bad sinus headaches every holiday season, found out he was allergic to pine and poinsettas. Just a thought to pass along……feel better boo-boo head {hug}.

    • votermom says:

      No, we have a fake one.
      We do have forced air – I know our filter is not great. We used to have an electronic filter but it decided to die. 😦
      Lots of maintenance that should be happening on the house that is having to go on hold because of co$t.

  6. yttik says:

    I get the winter headaches too, votermom. Mine has something to do with the light or lack of. It’s pretty gloomy around here, but there is still a winter glare. And right before it snows, I always get a sinus headache, like I can feel the pressure changing. Very annoying.

    I love the idea of a late primary challenger.I’ve been wondering about the logistics of that and so far I’ve found nothing to show it isn’t possible. You never know, Palin did say if she decided to run, it would be a completely unconventional campaign. One thing I like about Palin is that she teaches people to think outside the box.

  7. DeniseVB says:

    Must be a slow news day, been hearing rumors about Obama 2012 replacing Biden with Hillary again. Made me think…..

    Would you (generic) vote for Obama in 2012 if Hillary were on the ticket?

  8. DeniseVB says:

    Palin supports Trump Debate urges candidates to attend.


    I’m totally looking forward to the Trump Debate, love him or hate him, he entertains me 😉 This GOP field definitely needs a spark.

    • myiq2xu says:

      They represent an anger in our country that Barack Obama has caused…because he is a typical, cynical Chicago ward politician who runs for office and promises everything and then comes to office and disappoints. And so there anger is rooted, not in me or in Mitt Romney. There anger is rooted in the fact that they believed in this hope and change garbage that they were sold three years ago by this President. They believed in the fact that this President was going to be a post-partisan leader. They believed this President when he said he was going to be a transformational figure in our country. And so now they’re angry but they’re not mature enough to know they should be angry with themselves. So they’re going to be angry with me or governor Romney or some of you. What we should be focused on I think as a country is not being angry at them–they’ll work their problems out over time. What we should be angry about is the lack of leadership in this country.

  9. votermom says:

    Breaking: Shooting on Virginia Tech campus

    A police officer was shot Thursday on Virginia Tech’s campus, the university announced on its website.
    A potential second victim has been reported at a campus parking lot.
    The suspect, according to the posting, is described as a white male wearing gray sweatpants and a gray hat with a neon green brim. He was believed to traveling on foot near McComas Hall, a campus gym.

    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/12/08/shots-fired-at-virginia-techs-campus-gunman-sought/?test=latestnews#ixzz1fy8svubx

  10. OT completely- but I think some here will get a kick out of this

  11. foxyladi14 says:

    or Hillary.. 🙂

  12. DeniseVB says:

    Alaska Brown Bear/Momma Grizzly ?

    NYC - AMNH: Hall of North American Mammals - Alaska Brown Bear

  13. glennmcgahee says:

    Since my state of Florida only allows primary voting for registered party. I’m switching to Republican just in case.

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