Glass Jaw

Apparently, Newt Gingrich is already on the wane. Herman Cain suspended his campaign all of 10 days ago. The polls that came out in the middle of the next week, otherwise known as a week ago, put Gingrich in a much better position. Now, after a debate and a few more days of polling, a 4 point drop in one poll has made him another shooting star. Ron Paul is about half as popular and he’s still in the running. The media is actually running a news cycle faster than the actual news now.

I don’t know any people of such cool intelligence that they can plan some complicated scheme where every piece has to work just right. It’s why I have a hard time getting on board conspiracies. It’s probably why I can’t stand Ron Paul. There are people out to destroy our way of life, but most of them fall into 2 categories. There are the ones who are reaching their goals through crude, ham-handed force and there are the ones who are destroying America as a byproduct of gaining either money or power.

It may be Gingrich or Paul or Romney who gets the nomination. Even if it’s Bachmann, Santorum, Christie or even Palin, one thing is clear. Someone needs to take the fight to Obama. The media and the administration have their dials set to 11. They’re ready to call you a racist if you call Obama a “dark horse candidate.” You might as well go all in and call him the food stamp president, too.

I have one lousy character trait I share with Barack Obama. I hate being told I’m wrong. I have blown up a lot more than I should have in situations where it’s happened. I’m usually better about it when I am wrong, but that isn’t always the case. I say this because making Obama look dumb is the key to taking him out. It’s his glass jaw. Hit it in the right spot and he’ll go freaking insane.

Palin tried to do it before she got shut down by McCain’s terrible campaign staff. Netanyahu did it to Obama in public. From what I hear, he exploded at his staff as soon as he got behind closed doors. From everything I’ve seen, Newt Gingrich can do it, too. Perry’s ad team can do it. Romney would need a lot of work to be able to do it.

The disadvantage of a sycophantic media is that Obama has some thin skin for a terrible president of an under-performing economy. He’s a sore winner and an angry loser. Break him and you break the campaign.

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8 Responses to Glass Jaw

  1. crawdad says:

    Stepping back and watching a mugging

    Newt Gingrich, as far as I can tell from 1000 miles away (I’m in San Antonio), is just getting hammered right now in Iowa. Either in ads or in their stump speech, at least four of Newt’s competitors are slamming him hard.

    There are two theories about how this will play out. One is what conservative Jonah Goldberg said today: Newt is not vulnerable to attacks, because everyone already knows all the dirt about him. This is often combined with the theory that the link between Newt and conservatives is especially strong because of Newt’s perceived role in the 1994 landslide and in battling Bill Clinton in the 1990s.

    The other theory is that most people don’t pay much attention to politics and know little or nothing of Newt’s negatives, and when they learn about the ethics problems, the deviations from conservative orthodoxy, the ad with Nancy Pelosi, and other things that his support will tank just as Michelle Bachmann’s and Herman Cain’s did. Which would be what I’ve been saying.

    Well, we’re about a week into the all-out assault on Gingrich, punctuated by a performance in Saturday night’s debate that got generally good reviews…and while we don’t have definitive evidence yet, it’s looking bad for Goldberg, and more importantly for Newt. Yesterday’s PPP poll had Newt’s negatives up dramatically, and Politico’s Maggie Haberman reports that the same thing is showing up in the candidates’ internal polls (via Goddard). It’s still too early to know for sure the magnitude of the damage, or even for sure if it’s real, but what evidence there is shows Newt just as vulnerable to a massive multi-candidate attack as I’d have expected.

    One factor? Here’s where Newt’s unpopularity among highly visible conservative opinion leaders matters. Because practically no one appears to be rallying to his side. Even if conservatives aren’t interested in defending him against the specific charges that are being made, they certainly could call foul on the attackers for going so harshly negative against another Republican. Ronald Reagan’s supposed 11th Commandment (against attacking within the GOP) could be invoked. Instead, we get either piling on, or crickets. That matters; it lowers the costs of going negative, which include the risk that the attacking candidate will be branded as divisive within his or her own party. Of course, it helps that practically the whole field is doing it (with Jon Huntsman going negative against Romney in New Hampshire to boot), and it’s certainly possible that those seeing the ads directly might punish the attackers. Still, however, if Republican party actors step back and watch the mugging, it certainly doesn’t help the victim.

    You can have a jaw of steel but it won’t help if you get jumped by everyone at once.

  2. guest says:

    Break him and you break the campaign.

    Look at him glowering at Croft in this clip. He almost looks like Psycho — you know that last scene where the guy is looking into the camera and saying he won’t hurt the fly sitting on his thigh:

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