Nomentum is Mittmentum


I really don’t like obsessing over the latest polls but the one above illustrates Mitt Romney’s basic problem. While other candidates rise and fall, he’s stuck in the same place.

The good news for Mitt – his base appears solid. The bad news for Mitt – his base is all he’s got and could be all he ever gets. When the field narrows next month if all the Not-Romney votes settle on one candidate he’s toast.

Meanwhile:

Oh my: Ron Paul within one point of Gingrich in Iowa?

I’ll bet Romney’s kicking himself now for not having abandoned Iowa early on. If he had done that, he could have sent his supporters out to caucus for Paul, thereby detonating Newt’s chances; if he tried that now, having competed in earnest in the state, the headlines would be all about Romney’s shockingly poor finish in Iowa, which would actually help Gingrich in New Hampshire even if he finished second to Paul in the caucuses. (On the other hand, per Rasmussen, Paul’s just four points back of Gingrich for second place in New Hampshire too.) Two exit questions for you, then. One: As chances of a Paul upset grow, will Iowa’s Republican leaders swing behind Newt or Mitt? They want the caucuses to remain relevant to choosing the eventual nominee, and if Paul wins, that’ll be two elections in a row where the Iowa winner realistically had no chance. Two: Could a Paul victory achieve a real “none of the above” outcome for the nomination? A brokered convention is unlikely – but, as Sean Trende explains, not impossible if Paul fares well.


I don’t know about Romney but Tim Pawlenty should feel pretty stupid right now.


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48 Responses to Nomentum is Mittmentum

  1. DeniseVB says:

    This horse race is going right down to the wire. I think Paul’s going to pull it out as he’s got a pretty big army in Iowa and Newts IA campaign director just quit.

    In 2008, only 120,000 people caucused for the GOP candidates.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008

  2. yttik says:

    I don’t know if polls even matter in caucus states. In my state the number of people who show up at the caucus is such a small percent of the population, they don’t really represent public opinion.

  3. DeniseVB says:

    OT: Julianne Moore researched Sarah Palin for her role and still doesn’t like her. Makes me wonder what sources she used and I’m glad I don’t get HBO.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/gossip/julianne-moore-research-play-sarah-palin-game-change-miniseries-hbo-article-1.990078

  4. votermom says:

    OT for those interested Hot air registration link (open for today until 4pm EST)
    http://hotair.com/archives/2011/12/14/comment-registration-is-now-open-7/

    straight to link:

    http://hotair.com/wp/wp-login.php?action=register

    • 1539days says:

      Well, it’s a year late, but I’m glad Time has finally recognized the political impact that the Tea Par-

      What? They’re talking about the Arab Spring? And Occupy Wall Street? But they didn’t do anything! I guess Time is taking a page from the Nobel Prize committee.

    • Of course they did. When you’ve got an invented astroturf campaign to distract, what else would the media do for their favorite candidate.

  5. DeniseVB says:

    Obama campaign collecting republican emails

    http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2011/12/14/obama-campaign-collecting-republican-emails/

    Koffler seems to think it’s to sway GOP voters to vote for the candidate Obama CAN beat 😉

  6. That’s a pretty sizable drop for Newt. It looks like not all is rosy in camp Newtistan. His IA director just had to resign after putting his foot in his mouth about the “cult of Mormonism”. Sounds like he was a perfect fit for Newt. 🙂

    But I think Newt has staying power. I suspect he’s taking a hit from the negative ads and debate since he was the focus. It was bound to happen. But that he won’t drop too much further. You never know though, so we’ll have to watch those numbers.

  7. Margaret Carlson is definitely a dolt, but has an article on Newt:

    What a surprise. Although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney tried to provoke Gingrich’s inner child, the 68- year-old former House speaker sailed through the debate unscathed, looking for all the world like an adult. It’s telling that Romney, when encouraged by the debate moderators to criticize Gingrich, refrained from discussing the ethics violations, adulteries and such that form the molten core of Gingrich’s negatives. Instead, Romney went for Gingrich’s boyish fascination with the heavens.

    “We could start with his idea to have a lunar colony that would mine minerals from the moon,” Romney said dismissively.

    You can see the appeal, to a determined pragmatist like Romney, of attacking Gingrich’s lunar colony; “loony” is right there in the headline. Yet Gingrich didn’t flinch. Instead, he took the opportunity to champion his idea of sending a pick-and- shovel brigade to dig iron ore way up in the sky. “I’m happy to defend the idea that America should be in space,” he said, “and should be there in an aggressive, entrepreneurial way.”

    Gingrich’s casual preaching of revolution is an affront to the uptight Romney, who is cautious in debate as in everything else. Romney’s unmussed hair and cool demeanor are symptoms of one of his biggest problems: He just can’t fake being as freaked out as the Tea Party demands, what with America going to hell in a handbasket. Who are they going to vote for? Romney, who tosses off a $10,000 bet as if it were 10 bucks? Or the high-strung alarmist who warns that Islamic Shariah law is a “mortal threat to the survival of freedom in the United States and the world as we know it.” Romney, the measured professional, can’t seem to break 25 percent in the polls. Gingrich is now leading in three of the first four voting states — Iowa, South Carolina and Florida — and is creeping up on Romney in New Hampshire.

    You know the bomb thrower has serious traction over the management consultant when evangelicals overlook Gingrich’s multiple marriages punctuated by serial adultery. At the debate, Gingrich publicly repented, saying “I’ve made mistakes at times. I’ve had to go to God for forgiveness. I’ve had to seek reconciliation.” He then implied that he was too old to be the randy deceiver of yore. “But I’m also a 68-year-old grandfather,” he said. “I think people have to measure who I am now and whether I’m a person they can trust.”

    The road traveled from the divorced Ronald Reagan to the adulterous Gingrich has been rutted and winding. But thanks to opportunistic leaders like former Christian Coalition Executive Director Ralph Reed, it’s been ages since a hard line on divorce and its kissing cousin, adultery, trumped ideology among the Christian Right.

    In St. Newt, Republicans have perhaps found the un-Romney they have been seeking. Gingrich once delivered them to the promised land, taking control of the House of Representatives and impeaching a Democratic president. Unlike Romney, he’s not offering a Band-Aid for these end times. Gingrich believes only in major surgery — even if it kills the patient and ruins the surgeon. He’s the savior hiding in plain sight. Now that they’ve found him, they may not let go.

  8. votermom says:

    OT: The Donald talking smack about Rosie O Donnel. LOL.

  9. votermom says:

    OT Bizzare

    • votermom says:

      The family is described as “anti govt”. Maybe they were not being paranoid after all?

    • yttik says:

      LOL, maybe a grand conspiracy on the federal level is a stretch, but let me tell you, “local cops,” in a small town can be real good at making all your conspiracy theories come true.

      “Hey Herb, we got ourselves a predator drone, how we going us this thing?”

      “I think I saw one of Ben’s kids still driving with his snow tires on. Whatja say? Wanna go investigate?”

  10. myiq2xu says:

    I feel like shit and have a throbbing headache this morning. It’s like a bad hangover except I wasn’t drinking last night.

  11. DeniseVB says:

    From a tabloid, more details on the Sarah/Mark Burnett reality show pitch.

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sarah-palin-reality-show-todd-palin-snowmobile-272356

    Funny what type of shows the cables do run 😛

  12. foxyladi14 says:

    classy Chuck.can’t stand this guy.

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