Preference Cascade Underway?

Katrina Trinko:

Romney Seven Points Ahead in Gallup Poll

In today’s Gallup, Mitt Romney has a significant lead over President Obama among likely voters: seven points. Romney is at 52 percent to Obama’s 45 percent.

So what’s going on? I talked to Frank Newport, Gallup’s editor-in-chief, who warned that poll watchers should be careful to remember that Gallup’s daily number is an average of seven days. “It takes a while for any impact, in say the debate Tuesday night, to percolate through,” Newport says. “I think we’re just still seeing the positive enthusiasm on the part of the Romney people that came out at the first debate, and I think it’s too early to tell what’s going to happen” as a result of the second debate.

I’m not a bean counter or a number cruncher so I’ll leave that to others. My basic rule of not trusting polls still remains in effect. But I will point out that this poll covers both the first presidential debate and the match-up between Paul Ryan and Joe Biden.

So what does this mean?



The only poll that really matters is the one on November 6th.

This entry was posted in 2012 Elections, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

116 Responses to Preference Cascade Underway?

  1. myiq2xu says:

    I sometimes have to remind myself that I am a pessimist. But I have to admit that I’m feeling better than I did a month ago.

    Bringing Captain Spaulding back made all the difference.

  2. myiq2xu says:

    Washington Examiner:

    Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania

    A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.

    Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.

    It’s the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

  3. yttik says:

    I don’t know what it all means, but in Wa’s governor race, the Seattle Times has endorsed the Republican candidate. What makes this so astounding is that the Seattle Times is very liberal and always supports Dems. (Bill Clinton by the way, has been campaigning for the Dem.) This is a dark blue state, but something has gone horribly wrong. What is the thing that has gone horribly wrong? President Obama.

    • leslie says:

      In my VERY Dem district, the Chgo Tribune endorsed the Rep running against Jan Schakowsky (D – IL 9) for the first time ever.

    • Erica says:

      On RCP, WA is now likely to go Obama. OR is leaning Obama. Obama now at 201 electoral votes, and Romney @ 206. Most of Obama’s “firewall states” are in the toss up category.

    • T says:

      Not so. The Seattle Times endorsed George W. Bush at least once. They have quite a history of endorsing mainly Republicans. . And this new policy where they’re actually running ads for their own candidates is a little bit corrupt IMHO…and I’m voting for McKenna most likely (cuz Inslee is a doofus).

  4. are we seeing the Obama house of cards collapsing?

    • myiq2xu says:

      Let’s hope so. I want a landslide win for Romney so the Vile Progs can’t claim cheating.

      • carol haka says:

        I want a Landslide so they get the point! The point – fuck you all for the last disgusting evil 4 years! I wish you and your families all the worst. Now go away. And don’t make me say it twice! 👿

      • angienc says:

        Actually, the country needs it. I don’t put much stock in riot stories — the vile progs are trying to incite riots, don’t get me wrong, but based on what my mom tells me with her students, black people understand Obama hasn’t been a good president, even if they don’t go around proclaiming it loudly — but I think it will help the country come together & heal faster after the damage the SCoaMF has done to divide us.

        • DandyTiger says:

          The riot BS is pathetic blackmail. Vote for Obama or we’ll shoot ourselves. Um, OK, go ahead.

          • angienc says:

            Ha! I’ll spring for the ammo.

            Worse, you know it is white liberals who are pushing this meme (God, I can’t believe I’m agreeing with Ann Coulter — strange days indeed).

      • yttik says:

        The vile progs WILL claim cheating, even if it’s a landslide.

  5. carol haka says:

    Drudge: PA R 49% O 45% Thank you GOD!

  6. myiq2xu says:

    Holy shit!

  7. carol haka says:

    I watched Apollo 18 this afternoon. Wow, has anyone else watched it?

  8. angienc says:

    Bob’s right — it could be 48 for Mitt, but it could also be 56. But minimally he’s leading Obama by 3 (and he could be leading by as much as 11). 🙂

    But let’s not under-estimate the sleaziness of the Chicago Gang — I actually do expect Romney’s draft dodging paperwork, high school girlfriend whom he got pregnant & then forced to have an abortion, and/or even sex with a goat stories.

    • carol haka says:

      Remember Bob has access to insider info. He never gives up and didn’t even have any energy to fight back. 👿

    • yttik says:

      I’m trying to think of some scandal that could discourage me from voting Obama out? Hmmm…..nope, can’t do it! I can’t even imagine something that would persuade me to suffer another four years of Obama.

      I’ll call it the Clinton effect. Darn it, I know he slept with that woman…..and that one too, and lied about it, but let’s not be crazy and dump all this peace and prosperity! 🙂

      Considering the desperation behind Big Bird, Binders, and Ryan washing dishes, I think they might be out of scandals.

      • angienc says:

        Ha, ha! Love it — the Clinton effect — yeah, I knew he had slept with Gennifer Flowers too and that was *before* all that peace & prosperity! 🙂

      • trixta says:

        I think they’re beginning to challenge Romney on his statements about hiring all those binders of women.

      • Constance says:

        Actually Romney and Ryan are so choir boy clean a scandal would sort of make either of them more reassuringly human.

      • blowme0bama says:

        “I’m trying to think of some scandal that could discourage me from voting Obama out? Hmmm…..nope, can’t do it! I can’t even imagine something that would persuade me to suffer another four years of Obama. ”

        There is nothing the asshole can do to change peoples’ minds after 4 years of daily nightmares.

  9. 49erDweet says:

    Speaking of NASA, haven’t seen much mention of the ironic success of the now privatized space transport industry’s recent supply delivery to the space station. You KNOW Teh Won made that move counting on failure and embarrassment, not international accolades. Sweet! And how humbling if one recently worked at NASA.

    • carol haka says:

      I hope Romney reinstates NASA. 🙂

      • votermom says:

        Me too.
        He believes in R&D, and in attracting the best & brightest, so maybe …

      • votermom says:

        I googled – turns out it is a campaign promise from Sept 24

        In a policy paper released Saturday (Sept. 22), Romney and running mate Paul Ryan pledge to secure the nation’s global leadership position in space, which, they say, has eroded significantly during the president’s first term.

        “Over the past four years, the Obama Administration, through poor policy and outright negligence, has badly weakened one of the hallmarks of American leadership and ingenuity — our nation’s space program,” the paper reads.

        “Rebuilding NASA, restoring U.S. leadership, and creating new opportunities for space commerce will be hard work, but Mitt Romney will strive to rebuild an institution worthy of our aspirations and capable once again of leading the world toward new frontiers,” the authors add.

        there’s more at the link

      • ME says:

        YES!!! We need to have an active space program. This is ridiculous! Wasn’t there a story about Obama directing NASA to focus on outreach to Muslims? We’re supposed to be a superpower!

  10. yttik says:

    The Obama campaign is not happy with the polls. A few days ago they blasted Gallup:

  11. HELENK says:

    the power line thinks the preference cascade is well under way

  12. myiq2xu says:

    The Giants are testing my faith again.

  13. DM says:

    Giants need an out! 😦

  14. gxm17 says:

    The preference cascade started to tip well over a month ago. The first debate gave it a good, well-placed push. The second debate gave it an unforced shove due to Obama and Crowley’s tag team BS. While Obamanation feigned victory, the rest of America watched in disbelief at the arrogant and deceitful bias. By November the cascade will probably be hurricane force.

  15. westcoaster says:

    new Crossroads ad about the reaction to Benghazi:

    • DM says:

      It’s a good ad for the internet, but I think Romney needs a TV ad to show how the administration lied.

    • DM says:

      The word is “outside”. The best chance of all those states is Oregon because it tends to be the most conservative of the coastal states. At this point, I doubt it.

      • Jadzia says:

        As a happily FORMER resident of the People’s Republic of Eugene, I would throw a gigantic party if Oregon went red, mostly because I would love to see every f*cker’s head in that godforsaken town explode.

  16. votermom says:

    NJ? That I have to see to believe …

  17. DM says:

    Gallup seems to be way outside other polls. I just read Nate Silver cautioning about Gallup. Most pollsters will miss, that’s why the important thing is the trend, and all polls show Romney’s trend is up.

    • angienc says:

      True, I’m cautiously optimistic.

      However, Nate Silver is a known Obama flack — it was exposed after the 2008 election where he made his bones re: elections (he just did baseball stats prior, I think) that the Obama team was secretly sharing their internals with him, which is what he used to “so accurately predict” the race that year not his magic great “model.” I don’t know if the Obama team is still sharing internals with him, but I guarantee he is still shilling for Obama.

  18. taw46 says:

    Is anyone watching Mitt Romney at Alfred E. Smith dinner?

  19. taw46 says:

    I know Obama is steamed at his remarks. Now Obama is up.

  20. carol haka says:

    Romney was hysterical and he looked like he was crying at the end! 🙂

  21. swanspirit says:

    Is anyone watching the Alfred E. Smith Dinner ?

  22. swanspirit says:

    Romney was funnier !

  23. taw46 says:

    Romney was fantastic, can’t wait to watch it again. Obama was flat. Probably will leave in a pissy mood, after listening to Romney.

  24. taw46 says:

    Romney was brutal to Obama, but in such a graceful way, lol.

  25. DM says:

    4 to 1 St. Louis 😦

  26. Via Shez ZK. 🙂

  27. wmcb says:

    Watched the Al Smith dinner. Romney was hilarious. Obama looked uncomfortable.

  28. wyntre says:

    Mitt killed at the Al smith dinner. Here are some of his best one-liners.

    Romney on debate prep: “First, refrain from alcohol for 65 years before the debate.”

    Just had a good joke: “Speaking of Sesame Street, tonight’s dinner was brought to you by the letter ‘O’ and the number 16 trillion.”

    You can’t get through an election without someone who truly stands with you. I have my lovely wife Ann, he has Bill Clinton.

    “Of course rules have to be enforced, we need to make sure things are fair, (sarcastically) that’s why we have the press.”

    “But the press and I have different jobs. My job is to tell the American people my plans for the country, the press’ job is to make sure no one hears about it.”

    The press maybe sees things in a particular way. They’ve already written the headlines about tonight’s dinner: “Obama embraced by Catholics, Romney dines with Rich people”

  29. wyntre says:


    I was hoping the President would bring Joe Biden along. He’ll laugh at anything!”

    “To St. Peter, “if you got a church you didn’t build that”!!!!!!”

    “”Speaking of Big Bird, Obama is brought to you by the letter ‘O’ and the number 16,000,000,000,000″ “

  30. wmcb says:

    Was it just me, or did anyone else think Obama gave the infamous middle finger face scratch at the beginning when talking about Clint Eastwood? I swear I thought I saw it.

  31. swanspirit says:

    Mitt Romney could very well be a great president .

  32. wmcb says:

  33. angienc says:

    Mitt is funny –even The Atlantic (!) reported on it back in March. Funny how it didn’t get much play in MSM.

    Politicians are people who’ve made a career of being puffed-up with self-importance. Self-awareness is practically a liability in this business — it punctures the suspension of disbelief necessary to take seriously all the pomp and ceremony and manufactured gravitas. How refreshing, then, was Romney’s quip upon taking the stage with glitter in his hair, thanks to an ambush from a gay activist: “That’s not all that’s in my hair, I’ll tell you that,” he said. “I glue it on every morning, whether I need to or not.”

  34. Simofish says:

    If the Giants don’t show up tonight they best get their ass on the bats tomorrow.

  35. tommy says:

    Gallup might finally get a visit from the ‘Chicago Gentlemen’.

  36. holy crap mitt was hilarious at the Al Smith dinner. and gracious. Cant bring myself to watch obama — was he any good?

    • DM says:

      For me, Obama’s voice is like fingernails on a blackboard, but I enjoyed his talk at the dinner. He was funny and had good delivery. For once, his voice wasn’t annoying, and I think it’s that the campaign has brought him down to earth.

  37. westcoaster says:

    It’s OK to do editorials and endorse candidates, but twice today I heard about newspapers that are paying for ads. Here is one:

    • DM says:

      They have as much as anyone to pay for ads. As long as they disclose their bias, there is nothing wrong with it. What I don’t like is the hidden editorials that reporters engage in, usually in headlines (as Romney pointed out at the dinner), or with qualifiers that hide or change the truth.

      • westcoaster says:

        In my opinion it crosses a line. The newspaper doesn’t get money for writing biased articles or opinion pieces, but ads introduce an element of cronyism because money is directly involved.

        • T says:

          I agree. I’m from the Seattle area and I think it’s slimy…and I’m voting for McKenna, so I’m not just experiencing sour grapes because they didn’t support my candidate.

          But the Seattle Times is kind of slimy anyway. This new policy didn’t surprise me at all.

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