On Bellwethers & Deflated Conflations

bellwether

 

So this is what an actual bellwether actually looks like. Good to know. I had to look up the etymology because we hear it so often, especially in politics. The Florida Special Election held today is supposed to be some kind of bellwether, something that portends things to come. Dems were putting on a good show originally, cobbling together random and branded leftists balloons like Climate Change and putting a woman on the ticket, doing their early voting thing. You know, all the shit you saw them do in 2012 hoping to eke out a win with the ole slap-dazzle routine.

The Tampa Bay media brought in the drums at the top of the morning yesterday to signal the righteousness of Dems causes and to trumpet the skill in setting things up to…well, it didn’t work out the way they intended. But they DID set it up just so, just like they’d been taught. The article makes it look so probable!

Key findings from the survey include:

Sink has amassed a large lead during the early voting period, getting 52% among those who have already voted to just 45% for Jolly. We find that 60% of those who say they will vote have done so already, putting Jolly in a position where he will have to make up a lot of ground on election day.

-Sink is overcoming the district’s Republican registration advantage by overwhelmingly winning independent voters. She is getting 61% with them to only 27% for Jolly.

-69% of voters in the district say that it’s important for their new member in Congress to address the problem of climate change, including 44% who say it’s ‘very important.’ The joint ad campaign the LCV Victory Fund and the Sierra Club have run highlighting Jolly’s lack of interest in addressing the issue has really worked to Sink’s advantage- voters trust her more than Jolly to address climate change by a 17 point margin, 48/31.

And among voters who say they consider addressing climate change to be ‘very important,’ she leads by 62 points at 77/15.

Whoa, with those numbers, no way Jolly could win, right? But he did. Because, well:

Sink and her allies attacked Jolly for his lobbying career and contended he wanted to undermine Social Security and Medicare, essential programs to the district’s older voters.

But Jolly and outside Republicans hammered away at Sink’s support of the Affordable Care Act, and had an unpopular president in their corner as well.

And:

Sink had the initial lead Tuesday when votes came in from mail-in ballots and early voting. The lead almost instantly evaporated as results came in from Election Day, when Republicans traditionally fare better.

More than 125,000 voters turned in ballots before the polls opened Tuesday. Of those, more than 53,000 were Republicans and more than 48,000 were Democrats.

Strategy, man. It’s not the only game in town. Let’s hope this really is a bellwether race. Quite frankly, we need more goats in drag up in Washington. If only….

This is an open thread. Let your freak flag fly. Oh, and more cowbell, people!

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About Woke Lola

Bitch, please.
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12 Responses to On Bellwethers & Deflated Conflations

  1. DandyTIger says:

    It’s been a Dem leaning and growing county (and voting district) for sometime. Although they had a very long term Repub in office before this, he was the exception because there so long and so well liked. So the Dem by all accounts should have won. She (the Dem) is moderate. And the Dems out raised the Repub by 4 to 1. There is no way in any normal election that the Repub could have possibly won.

    I think this is 100% an Obamacare referendum. Likely more to come like this.

    • r u reddy says:

      If counter-Obamacare voters sweep Rs into control of the Senate and then the White House, they will be disappointed to discover that Ocare will remain the law regardless. An R Congress and Administration may well change it around some to make it more purely Heritage, but they will not repeal it. They especially will not repeal the Forced Mandate after Obama, the Democrats, and Justice Roberts worked so hard to get it passed and upheld into law.

  2. The Klown says:

    Via AofSHQ:

    “Perhaps, like me, you have wondered how it is that so many people, otherwise honest, can adopt without demur the Orwellian anti-language of Political Correctness; how it is that so many people, otherwise rational, can adopt without demur the paradoxes, self-contradictions and logical absurdities involved in relativistic morality, materialistic ontology, subjective epistemology, and the other nuggets of vacuous blither forming the foundations of modern thought; how it is that so many people, otherwise possessing good taste, can without demur fund and support and praise the blurry aberrations of modern art, praise ugliness, despite beauty; how it is that so many people, otherwise good and peaceful, can praise and support and excuse the hellish enormities and mass murders of figures like Che and Mao and Stalin and Castro; or can view with cold eye the piles of tiny corpses heaped outside abortion mills, and make such enemies of the human race into heroes; or can rush to the defense of Mohammedan terrorists with freakish shrieks of ‘Islamophobia!’ and ‘Racist!’ even thought to be wary of Jihadists bent on your destruction is rational rather than phobic, and even thought Mohammedanism is a religion, not a race; how otherwise happy, moral, reasonable and decent people can not merely excuse sexual perversion, but will be swept up in a fervor of righteous indignation even if someone points out the biological or Biblical reality of the situation; and likewise excuse lies in their leaders, and adulteries, and abuses of power, and abuses of drugs, and any number of things these otherwise ordinary people would never do themselves.

    “And, finally, perhaps, like me, you have wondered why it is that these people who are otherwise civil nonetheless can neither explain their positions nor stop talking, and their talk consists of nothing, nothing, nothing aside from childish personal attacks, slanders, sneers, and accusation, accusation, accusation. Why are they so angry? Why are they so noisy? Why are they so blissfully unaware of the vice, injustice, ugliness and evil they support?
    John C. Wright in Restless Heart of Darkness – Part Four

    • Underwhelmed says:

      Yeah. Be wary of Wright. He’s a raving fundamentalist Catholic who really believes women are ordained as lesser beings, by God.

      • wmcb says:

        No, he doesn’t. I don’t wholeheartedly agree with him on everything, but his views on the differences between the sexes is much, MUCH more nuanced than the caricature you paint.

        Here’s a long example. As I said, I don’t agree with all, but I do agree with some of his points. I think much of what he says is generally true, though like everything else there are always outliers at both ends of the bell curve. I’ve long said that true female power does not consist of making women as much like men as possible. As a matter of fact, trying to behave more like men in general actually disadvantages and disempowers us.

        http://www.scifiwright.com/2013/11/saving-science-fiction-from-strong-female-characters-part-1/

  3. The Klown says:

    FYI: The judge took my freak flag away.

    Permanently.

  4. The Klown says:

    That goat is creepin’ me out.

  5. Lulu says:

    Dandy Tiger is exactly correct. This should have been a Dem pickup. Sink is a moderate. She is very wealthy and has foot in mouth problems but nothing vast amounts of money, which she had, and her generally good reputation could not have overcome. The Rep is rather creepy, a frigging lobbyist, but smart. He ran on Obamacare, Obamacare, Obamacare. One of his repeal Obamacare ads overcame ten of her blah, blah, blah, I am a rich bullshitter ads. It was so one-sided that the Dems couldn’t even cheat. The Dems cannot get their voters to the polls to support Obamacare. All they can do is get them to tell pollsters it should be “fixed” which is Dem-speak for repealed.

  6. DeniseVB says:

    Debbie Downer has the spin …. and a new glam look !

    http://www.ijreview.com/2014/03/120706-wasserman-schultz-heck-yeah-dem-loss-florida-proves-weak-gop/

    With 20% of the voters being Independents, looks like they’re going to decide the mid-terms because we don’t like anybody, especially Obama 😀

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