Tomorrow should be fun.
It’s 2 am and since I can’t sleep I figured I would share some of my thoughts.
Rafael Edward “Ted” Cruz (born December 22, 1970 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada) is the junior United States Senator from Texas. Elected in 2012 as a Republican, he is the first Hispanic or Cuban American to serve as a U.S. senator from Texas. He is the chairman of the subcommittee on the Oversight, Agency Action, Federal Rights and Federal Courts, U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. He is also the chairman of the subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, U.S. Senate Commerce Committee.
Between 1999 and 2003, Cruz served as the director of the Office of Policy Planning at the Federal Trade Commission, an associate deputy attorney general at the United States Department of Justice, and as domestic policy advisor to U.S. President George W. Bush on the 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign. He served as Solicitor General of Texas from 2003 to May 2008, after being appointed by Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott. He was the first Hispanic, the youngest and the longest-serving solicitor general in Texas history. Cruz was also an adjunct professor of law at the University of Texas School of Law in Austin, from 2004 to 2009. While there, he taught U.S. Supreme Court litigation. Cruz is one of three Latinos in the Senate; the others—also Americans of Cuban ancestry—are fellow Republican Marco Rubio of Florida and Democrat Bob Menendez of New Jersey.
Cruz was the Republican nominee for the Senate seat vacated by fellow Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison. On July 31, 2012, he defeated Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in the Republican primary runoff, 57%–43%. Cruz defeated former state Representative Paul Sadler, in the general election, on November 6, 2012. He prevailed 56%–41% over Sadler. Cruz openly identifies with the Tea Party movement and has been endorsed by the Republican Liberty Caucus. On November 14, 2012, Cruz was appointed vice-chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
On March 23, 2015, Cruz announced he would run in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election.
Ted Cruz is running, but can he win?
Short answer: Yes – this is America, where any boy or girl can grow up to be President!
Long answer: Maybe – there is a path to victory but it won’t be easy.
Ted Cruz will be an upstart/insurgent/Cinderella candidate. The Big Money and GOPE (same thing) are already lining up behind Jeb Bush. If Jeb falters the money will shift to someone else, but that person will NOT be Ted Cruz.
The media won’t only not support him, they will be against him. That includes Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and all the rest of the GOPE media. Remember how the media treated Sarah Palin? Prepare to see that kind of treatment on steroids.
So how does a candidate with no money and a hostile media stand a snowflake’s chance in Hell of success?
I never said he couldn’t raise any money. He’ll never be the guy with deep pockets who can buy votes with slick campaigns and expensive political consultants. He’ll need to raise enough to get on the ballots and to travel frequently to the early primary states, but he can use social media and hostile news coverage to get noticed by the voters. (A hostile media is actually a plus for a Republican primary candidate.)
That means he will be spending a lot of time in Iowa and New Hampshire for the rest of this year, along with a few trips to other early primary/caucus states. He will have to perform well in debates and at candidate forums where the media and his competitors will be looking to sandbag him with trick questions, hoping to cause a gaffe.
It goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway) that a single gaffe could torpedo his chances. And you can rest assured that if there are any skeletons in his closet somebody will find them.
I believe he is constitutionally eligible to be POTUS, but you can expect that to be an issue at various points in the campaign. I don’t think there will be an authentic grassroots birther movement but I’m sure the media will assist in ginning up an astroturf attack.
The key for Ted Cruz is to win early. Forget the national polls or the ones comparing him to Hillary. He needs a strong performance in Iowa and New Hampshire. Even second place might do it. But if he finishes in the middle of the pack (or worse) he’ll never make it to Super Duper Tuesday. That is true of all the candidates except Jebbie.
If he wins early and presents a credible challenge to Jeb Bush then the money and volunteers will start flowing in. He’ll still be the underdog, but he’ll still be in the race.
I believe that the candidate who offers the most credible challenge to Jeb Bush will win the nomination. The GOPE loves them some Jebster, but the voters don’t like him. The problem for Ted Cruz is Scott Walker. He has to beat Walker before he can take on Jeb.
Right now Scott Walker is still at the top of my list. But I won’t be casting any votes until next year. A lot can happen in a year.