From Scott Adams’ Blog:
If you have been following the Master Persuader series in this blog, you know that the influence stack goes like this:
Identity beats analogy
Analogy beats reason
Reason beats nothing
Most of the candidates are trying to make an appeal to reason, and failing, because reason beats nothing. Rand Paul has lots of reasons. Some might be darned good. No one cares.
Trump says he wants to “make America great again” which is a pure identity play. Voters enjoy – at a visceral level – the idea of having a national identity that makes them proud. According to the Master Persuader stack, Trump is a full layer of influence above the others. And it shows.
But what about Hillary Clinton’s identity message? Clearly she appeals to strong, alpha women who identify with her political strength and impressive success.
But what about men?
Now that Clinton has played the woman card, and said in a public debate that her gender is a selling point for the job of president, how does a man vote for that?
My prediction, based on the Master Persuader filter, is that a majority of male Democrats will abandon Clinton in the privacy of the voting booth. Remember that identity always beats reason, and Clinton has made it clear that in her view, men had their turn.
A big chunk of Democratic men might be lying, for social reasons, about supporting Clinton. They might lie to friends and they might lie to pollsters. But on voting day, in the privacy of the voting booth, no lying is required. On voting day day, people vote for identity.
I can’t see any scenario in which Clinton wins the male vote in her own party.
Our national motto is “E pluribus unum” which means “out of many, one.” The idea is that many people from around the world came here to form a new identity. One nation. Identity politics does just the opposite – it makes many out of one.
Or to put it a different way, “Divide and conquer.”
The problem is that when you divide black from white in order to appeal to black voters, you are sending the message that white voters aren’t wanted. If the Democrat party is the party of black people, then the GOP must logically be the party of white people. If women are Democrats then men must be Republicans.
By using accusations of racism and sexism the Democrats have managed to utilize white guilt and male guilt to hang on to enough of the white vote and male vote to win elections. But anyone who has been in a bad relationship with a manipulative person knows that guilt can easily turn into resentment.
The Democrat chickens are coming home to roost, but they played with fire and burned down the hen house. The Republicans aren’t the ones stoking the fires, they are just taking advantage of it.
What were the Democrats thinking? At the heart of every bloody civil war this world has ever seen is identity politics. Us vs. Them.
For the record, I am not in favor of a race war. I do not want to see a return to the bad old days of Jim Crow and legal sexism. I was proud of my country for the progress we had made in my lifetime, and I hoped to see the realization of Martin Luther King’s dream.
Hopefully this is just going to be a minor course correction. But it could get ugly. Very ugly.