Iowa Doesn’t Matter, Except When It Does


Today is the big day! Or is it?


Iowa has always been about more than the final standings on caucus night. It’s about beating the political-pundit prediction market as the campaign heads to New Hampshire and beyond. Now it appears that Cruz, if he doesn’t win outright — and he trails Trump in most recent surveys, including The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll released Saturday evening — could finish ahead of Rubio and yet still be cast as the evening’s big loser.

“Expectations, in my opinion, are far more important than one person getting first place,” Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, told Politico. “Now, I don’t want to downplay that. The biggest ticket out of here is who gets first place. But there are far more tickets than that.”

If there is one hard and fast rule about our quadrennial “first in the nation” fooferaw in the Hawkeye State it’s that Iowa doesn’t matter, except when it does. We won’t know this year until after it is over and the Very Serious People tell us whether it matters or not.

Here is a list of the winners and losers over the years. In 2008 it was Very Important and Historic that Barack Obama won. MSNBC practically declared him to be the unbeatable nominee until Hillary went and won New Hampshire a week later.

On the other hand Mike Huckabee won in 2008 and went on to finish a distant second place for the nomination behind John McCain (and barely ahead of Mitt Romney who dropped out early.)

I have no idea who is going to win tonight. Okay, that’s not quite true. I know that either Hillary or Bernie will win on the Democrat side. The GOP race seems to be between Trump, Cruz and Rubio, and the general consensus is that Rubio won’t finish higher than second.

Eight days from now they will vote in New Hampshire, and suddenly nobody will be talking about Iowa any more. Then two weeks after that come South Carolina and Nevada. Super Tuesday takes place on March 2nd, and a bunch of states and delegates will be up for grabs.

Once again, the single biggest prize in the primaries won’t vote until June.

So buckle up, kiddoes, the fun is about to start. For you guys. Not for me. I don’t get to vote until it’s almost summer.



About Myiq2xu™

I lost everything in a Fonzie scheme.
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146 Responses to Iowa Doesn’t Matter, Except When It Does

  1. Myiq2xu says:

    There are several GOP candidates who appear to be betting on hanging on until both Trump and Cruz implode, then moving in to pick up the pieces. The other version is to be the last not-Trump candidate standing and getting all the not-Trump voters to unite under their banner.

    I suspect that while Cruz and Rubio battle for the not-Trump title The Donald will be running off with the nomination.

    • votermom says:

      I am interested in turnout tonight. That would be awesome.

      • DeniseVB says:

        A blizzard is due to hit the state, but the forecasters are confident it will wait until after the caucuses. 😉 Turnout should be yuuuge, which would bode well for The Donald and The Bern.

        • elliesmom says:

          A “blizzard” in Iowa has to really be a blizzard to keep people home. The forecasts I’ve seen have blizzard conditions for tomorrow morning, but the snow totals are less than a foot so they can’t be expecting much snow before midnight. People might be more impatient for the caucuses to be short and sweet. The candidate whose spokespeople give the briefest speeches might clean up.

  2. Myiq2xu says:

    I will be rooting for Bernie to win tonight. He’s already expected to win NH fairly easily (it’s practically his home state) so if he can eke out a win in Iowa that could be a game changer.

    • votermom says:

      Speaking of…

      • Myiq2xu says:

        I think Bern can win a Dem primary but he is less likely than Hillary to win a general.

        • Myiq2xu says:

          Plus it will just be fun to watch.

        • Somebody says:

          What does it say about the democratic party though?? Think back to the voter fraud and the rules and bylaws bullshit of 2008. Add to that the 2012 convention and booing God, now they may nominate a fucking socialist…….wow!

          This ain’t your daddy’s DNC for sure.

          • Myiq2xu says:

            The Democrat party used to be the party of working people. Now it’s the party of latte liberals, government employees and welfare recipients. If the GOP can gather the old “Reagan Democrats” into their tent they can win the White House.

          • leslie says:

            I think it’s a set-up for a Biden candidate. Who wants someone who is a traitor and liar (HRC) or a person who has even greater credit-card debt than I in the White House (Bernie). No matter who the Rs put into place as the candidate, these 2 Ds make any R look honest and savvy. Hence, a Biden run “for the good of the nation”.

          • foxyladi14 says:

            JFK is turning over in his grave. 🙄

        • swanspirit says:

          Which is exactly why I want him to win. I think the “Bernadudes and Bernadettes” will be too upset to come over to Hillary. There would be lots more PUMAS 🙂 and it would be so much fun to watch.

  3. DeniseVB says:

    Funny things overheard on FNC this morning:

    Christie on why he likes holding his rallies in bars: “Because I look and sound better to people who are drinking.”

    Young women at Bernie rally on why she’s supporting him: (after a long, deep thinking and confuzzled pause) “Free college of course”.

    Clip of Hillary explaining marking her emails “classified” is like giving a person a speeding ticket for going 35 mph “after” the DOT lowered the speed limit to 25 mph. (????)

    Not all people at these rallies are actually from Iowa, just in town for the shows. A lot of Iowans are still undecided. Go Trump! Go Bernie! Chaos 2016!!!

    • Myiq2xu says:

      I remember hearing stories that a lot of the people at the 2008 caucuses weren’t actually from Iowa either. Nothing was ever proven, of course.

      • DeniseVB says:

        Out of state college students with photo id’s will probably be allowed to caucus ? That’s always been controversial, and they’re so easy to win over with beer and pizza 😉

        My first vote was for McGovern. Lived in SoCal at the time, though my husband’s home state was MA at the time, as a military dependent didn’t realize registering to vote in another state meant we’d have to pay personal property taxes to that state. Boy, did that piss off my dh, and Nixon won in a landslide that year. Lose-lose.

    • elliesmom says:

      When I’m trolling the Feel the Bern kids, I have fun pointing out even if Bernie gets elected president, and he has a compliant House and Senate, it’s doubtful anyone currently old enough to vote would benefit from his free college promise unless they delay going to college several years. None of those “free” state colleges and universities belong to the federal government. There are lots of steps along the way, and lots of decisions about how it would be accomplished. The Bernie kids will end up paying for college either way, and then as taxpayers pay for the generation that comes after them. They insist he’ll find a way to make college free for kids who are there now.

      • DeniseVB says:

        I saw a “math” chart explaining Bernie’s Free Sh*t plans. You can defund the military 100% and tax the millionaires 100% and still be short trillions to pay for his policies. Kids just can’t wrap their heads around that.

  4. DeniseVB says:

    Best endorsement for Hillary evah ! Via John Smart:

    And it is time for a woman. It just is. I know it is verboten (certain aging hippie pothead actresses keep invoking their vaginas every election cycle ) to state one might be voting with ones vagina – well – fuck that. I will say it. YES, ladies I think you should vote with your vagina in mind. Men make decisions with their penis in mind…everyday, all the time. Penis based presidencies are, in fact, the norm. Susan Sarandon can go to hell as far as I’m concerned. What the hell is wrong with voting with your vaginas for once? Millions of people voted for Obama because he was black. Vote for her BECAUSE she’s a woman who can do the job. Hillary Clinton is more than capable, clearly has our back, and there are literally millions of jobs over the years given to lesser people because they had a penis. So yeah. give it to the one with the vagina for once.

    You can read more here:

  5. Somebody says:

    Boy there are a lot of anti Trump eminent domain stories out there today. Odd that so many bloggers decided to write about the same topic on the exact same day isn’t it?

    • Myiq2xu says:

      Nobody gives a shit about eminent domain. It’s one of those issues that only matter to the fringes.

      • elliesmom says:

        As a town water commissioner, I participated in the taking of someone’s land. The person wasn’t enthusiastic about moving, but she was treated fairly. Every effort was made to make the transition to a new house as easy as possible, and she was generously compensated. At the same time another family was offered a fair market price for their home for expansion of the town library and its parking lot. They weren’t pressured, and they declined. They still live in their house, but it’s surrounded on all sides by the library parking lot and the street. I’m sure it has done a number on the value of the house, but it was their choice. The lady who moved got good money for her house, money to move, and found herself on the winning side of the suit against WR Grace. She’s a happy camper.

      • DeniseVB says:

        If someone were to take my home under eminent domain, I’d much rather it be a wealthy private business who’ll make me much richer than if the government moves in on me. In our growing area, with many road improvements eating up rural homes, the gov is only required to pay me the tax assessed value/or comps, which ever is lower.

      • elliesmom says:

        In the case of the lady whose house we took, her property was over an aquifer that had been polluted by WR Grace. Since she had town water, her house was still as habitable as any other house in town, but if she had a private well, she’d have been in trouble. She got fair market value for her house, and she was able to buy a similar house in town. Her lawyer attached her to the lawsuit against Grace since she had lost her home over it. When Grace settled, she didn’t make a fortune, but it was enough to put a smile on her face. The clean-up took several years, and I moved before it was completed. I’ve never driven back there to see what the town ultimately did with her house. Given all of the publicity at the time (See “A Civil Action”), I don’t think the house was marketable for a long time. Real estate agents called me all of the time with questions from prospective home buyers thinking about moving into town. Explaining why the town owned that house would have sent up red flags.

  6. Myiq2xu says:

  7. Myiq2xu says:

  8. Myiq2xu says:

    That’s a lot of money for a fucking dog:

  9. Myiq2xu says:

    The Iowa caucuses is literally a situation where the 1% have a huge impact on national politics. 1% of the delegates will be at stake today.

  10. Dora says:

  11. Dora says:

    This afternoon.

  12. DeniseVB says:

    Just heard Microsoft is running the caucus voting via new apps the precinct captains will be using to send in results tonight. Microsoft ? That just erased the predictions in my head 😛

  13. Dora says:

    Brit Hume: Trump Does Not Need Big Surge to Win – Could Win “Going Away” (VIDEO)

    For the record – Hume is NOT a Trump supporter.

  14. Myiq2xu says:

    The comments are atrocious.

  15. Myiq2xu says:

  16. Jadzia says:

    I actually logged in here this afternoon HOPING THAT IOWA WAS OVER. (It was on the teevee this morning but the kids were caterwauling so I couldn’t hear anything.) One more day? Ugh.

  17. Myiq2xu says:

  18. elliesmom says:

    On the issue of busing folks in to vote – I love the town we’ve recently moved into. I especially like the “Mayberry, RFD” feel of it. I don’t know if I wrote about how I registered to vote here, but in a nutshell, I presented only an out of state rabies certificate to get a license for Ellie. Then I used the dog license as proof I lived in town to register to vote. No other ID. A couple of days later I received a temporary voter ID card in the mail, which was followed by a permanent one a few weeks later.I need the card to vote- for the first time. After that only if my eligibility is questioned.

    If one wanted to bus folks into Iowa, would it be easier in a big city where they might be asking for ID more, or in a small town where things are more loosey-goosey, but the election workers would be more likely to know the people in their precinct? Or does either scenario require collusion on the part of the poll/caucus workers?

    • Myiq2xu says:

      Massive fraud would require lots of co-conspirators. Far more likely is a bunch of organized newcomers. I’ll give Obama credit – he had an army of dedicated followers.

    • 1539days says:

      If you show up early, you could “steal” a registration. There’s a big sign in book. If you know the name and address of a voter who hasn’t gone yet, you could sign under their name. I’m not sure what they could do if that person eventually showed up.

  19. votermom says:

  20. DeniseVB says:

    Bill looks terrible here and much,much older than Bernie.

  21. taw46 says:

    The Germans are mad!

    • leslie says:

      This morning on MJoe, they commented that when Bernie said to stop focusing on the damn emails, he was in effect saying he was not a serious candidate, but instead he was a protest candidate. If he were serious about the presidency, he’d have gone after her on the emails. Joe said Bernie apologized for that remark the next day, but it was already too late.

  22. taw46 says:

  23. SHV says:

    OT…Nice cat story as a distraction from watching the Decline and Fall of the American Empire.

  24. lyn says:

    Looks like Huckabee is dropping out after today. That’s what Twitter says.

    • elliesmom says:

      What jumped out at me was the comments the kids made about Sanders and Clinton either referred to the candidates’ physical appearance or what they said in the clip. Their comments about Trump and Cruz were mostly unrelated to the clips. “Trump hates black people and Latinos. Cruz is crazy.” So yes, I think it’s safe to say their parents are Democrats.

  25. Myiq2xu says:

    Scott Adams:

    If polls hold, Iowa is going to fire the government today by giving Trump a win on the Republican side and a head start on running the table. I don’t think it will matter who wins on the Democrat side. As soon as Trump is done punching in every direction, and can focus on one opponent, that poor soul will have a bad 2016.

    That said, I don’t think any of the top-polling candidates are a full package. Trump has the skills, but he scares the shit out of half the public, and that won’t work. Sanders has the long-term vision of a kinder, smarter world, but he lost the batteries for his Casio calculator. Clinton is only running to be president of women, and the men they own. That doesn’t work either. Rubio and Cruz probably won’t get within striking distance.

    So what we have is a way to break the government (Trump or Sanders) and no plan to fix it. That didn’t work in Iraq. It’s a risky play here, too.

    That said, I’m all in for firing my government, risk and all. We might never get this kind of chance again. We can work out the details later. Revolution first.

  26. Dora says:

    Best reason ever to vote for Trump!

    25% of Feds Would Consider Leaving Their Jobs if Trump Becomes President

  27. Myiq2xu says:

  28. Dora says:

    Good photo collection.

  29. DeniseVB says:

    Oh my.

    • dm says:

      Aside from the obvious swipe at Cruz and his mailer, this only goes to prove how badly these things, i.e. voter records, need to be updated and coordinated between the states. It’s a shame she let the cat out of the bag…I’m sure someone would have loved to have voted for her!

      • leslie says:

        They probably still will in Chicago.

      • DeniseVB says:

        I’m surprised the media hasn’t hunted down those people on the “mailer”. Could be fake names, but still. Both the RNC and DNC have sent me “personal” mailers noticing I haven’t contributed by showing me my “records” on a scary form. Unsubscribed from both of them.

  30. Constance says:

    I’m hoping for a choice between Trump and Bloomberg. Both those guys can get things done. Of course a lot of times the best hope of The People is a high conflict government clogged to the point of accomplishing nothing.

    • dm says:

      I can only imagine what Bloomberg would do…probably pick up the mantle of Michelle’s lunches and dictate that we shall all eat like our kids now do…too many vices, I couldn’t handle a Bloomberg prohibition.

      • DeniseVB says:

        I like Bloomberg, but not to run my life. He was a better mayor than DeBlasio, but not as good as Guiliani. Can’t these billionaires just sit on their velvet cushions and leave me alone 😉

    • lyn says:

      We’ve seen some of that, but Obama has his GOPe enablers. I’m amazed that our political class refused to offer a good jobs program for the unemployed during Obama’s reign of terror against the working and middle class.

  31. Dora says:


  32. swanspirit says:

    I think I hate caucuses.

    • DeniseVB says:

      Yes, me too. Following the newsies all weekend, it just looks like this is much ado about nothing. Just send those peeps to the polls already!!!

  33. DeniseVB says:

    Well,my ahole dh told me I’m looking like “Penny” this weekend…..zoned out. Wished I looked this good 😉

  34. DeniseVB says:

    New thread up !

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