Who will replace Justice Scalia on the Supreme Court? The Democrats say that the Constitution gives Obama the power to nominate someone to fill the vacancy. And they are 100% correct.
But the Republicans say that the Constitution says the Senate has to confirm whoever is nominated and that they can reject candidates or simply stall for a year until there is a new President. And they are 100% correct.
So who will win?
That depends on who is willing to go the farthest to win. The voters are a wild card in this kerfluffle if this is seen as a big issue next November. Or Obama could make a recess appointment who will serve until the next Senate begins next winter. Last but not least, the Notorious RBG is getting up there in years and there could be another vacancy at any time.
As for the election, what was supposed to be an uneventful primary season ending in the coronation of the two establishment front-runners in each party has turned into a donnybrook.
Bernie Sanders was supposed to be a nominal sparring for Hillary so she could get warmed up for the fall campaign. Fergawdsakes, the man isn’t even a real Democrat! Hillary is feeling a Bernie sensation and she is not happy about it.
Jeb! Bush was expected to face a little stiffer competition, but he would have a huge money advantage and the party machinery on his side. The other contenders were supposed to be positioning themselves for future runs and/or raise their status and name recognition.
If one year ago you were to tell people that Jeb! would not be the nominee, they would guess he was beaten by someone like Scott Walker or Rick Perry. If you told them that Donald Trump would be leading the GOP pack right now they would laughed and called you crazy.
If history is any guide then this year should favor the GOP. Since FDR only once has the same party held the White House for more than two consecutive terms. But this year, who knows?
Hillary is hoping to outlast the Bernie Boom and then win the nomination with the super delegates. Her strategy for the general election (if she gets there) will be to run on her vagina and hope the Republicans self-destruct. The conventional wisdom is that the Democrats have some built-in advantages in the Electoral College.
I’m not sure if Bernie has a strategy. I think he’s just having fun and if he wins he’ll be as surprised as anybody.
Donald Trump is in it to win it. He’s already shifting to a general election strategy. He knows that the GOPe despises him and will do anything to take him down, so he is trying to bypass them. If he storms the convention with a massive delegate lead he will dare them to steal the nomination away from him.
Ted Cruz had a very good strategy. He kept a low profile while raising money and spending lots of time in Iowa. He expected Trump to fade or implode at which time he would grab the front-runner banner and use his momentum to rack up some early wins. But Trump didn’t fade or implode. So now Ted is the front-runner for second place.
Marco Rubio was supposed to be the GOP Obama. Jeb was supposed to just show up and win. I’m not sure what all the others had planned as a path to victory. Pretty much everybody but Trump is hoping to outlast the rest of the pack and get the GOPe to consolidate behind them as the Not-Trump candidate.
Here is the most important thing to remember about this election:
THERE ARE NO RULES.
One of these people will be standing on a podium next January with one hand on a bible and the other raised, taking the oath of office. It really doesn’t matter how they get there.
They can lie, play dirty, cheat, break the law, steal votes, pack ballot boxes – it does not matter. JFK cheated but he was still President. Obama cheated but he still won.
Which brings us back to the Supreme Court. If there is any legal action filed regarding this upcoming election, guess who will be deciding the winner? Remember Bush v. Gore?