It is now official – Hillary Clinton is now the first female major party nominee for president. I guess that qualifies as “historic” but like Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 it won’t mean much if she doesn’t win.
The problem for Hillary is that being a woman won’t be enough to win. Not this year anyway.
This is going to be a change year.
There are two main types of presidential elections – “change” and “stay the course”. When times are good people want to keep doing the same things and keep the same leaders. When things aren’t going so good the people want to make changes.
The determination as to whether things are good or bad is an assessment that each individual voter makes. It is based on perception rather than factual data. The status of the economy is usually one of the primary factors in making this determination, but wars, crime rates, riots, and scandals can all have an effect.
Another big factor is something I call “party fatigue.” After a couple consecutive terms the voters get tired of the party that holds the White House.
All the factors are pointing towards a change election. Hillary represents the status quo. In a year where anti-establishment feelings are running high she is solidly establishment. Eight years ago she could run as the candidate of change but not this year.
Donald Trump is the most anti-establishment major party candidate for president since … uh, ever. That is why this campaign is going to be so ugly.
Hillary’s only hope of winning is if she can convince voters that Trump is unfit and/or too risky. On the bright side (for Hillary) character assassination is something she has lots of experience with.