Predictions


To understand why this tweet is so funny, here is Don Surber from back in July:

“Trump the Press” made its Kindle debut today — get it here — and an entire chapter is devoted to election forecaster Nate Silver. Not because he got the nomination wrong — giving Trump a 2 percent chance last September even after Trump had been ahead for every day for two months.

What earned Silver a rare chapter all his own was that he kept doubling down, refusing to learn from his many, many mistakes. Even as late as April, Silver said Trump would fall short of the delegates needed to win on a first ballot and therefore Republicans would nominate someone else.

None of his nonsensical predicts were based on his vaunted computer program that designed to forecast elections. Instead he was obstinate and caught up in a crazy Never Trump frenzy. But Silver has learned his lesson.


No, he hasn’t. Nate Silver is back to predicting that Hillary has a 75% chance of victory.

The biggest problem I see with most current polls is that they are using 2012 as a turn-out model, but this is a different election and Obama isn’t running. Polling doesn’t show the enthusiasm gap – very few Democrats are excited about voting for Hillary, and black people are unlikely to turn out in record numbers the way they did for Obama.

Trump, on the other hand, has lots of enthusiastic supporters.

5 more days.


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About Deplorable Myiq2xu™

Suck my toxic masculinity.
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101 Responses to Predictions

      • Somebody says:

        All these rumors are flying, but who has a looming indictment? Low level staffers? Higher level staffers like Huma or Cheryl Mills? Those inside the ring of power? Hill or Bill or both? How about their paymasters? All the rumor could be that an indictment is likely of some techie that was stupid enough to follow orders.

  1. votermom says:

    The author is a nice guy, very rightwing. His dad is in failing health – tough week for him.

  2. DeniseVB says:

    Heh.

  3. dm says:

    Woke up to find out the Cubs won – made it to the rain delay, couldn’t hang on any longer. Call me delusional, caught up in fantasy, but I believe now if the Cubs could win it so can Trump. Woo Hoo Cubs! Woo Hoo Trump! Come on Tuesday…make it official.

    • votermom says:

      Let this be the year all curses are broken, and unlikely winners triumph!
      Cheers for baseball, mom, and apple pie!
      #MAGA

    • Somebody says:

      I know the game went so late, I couldn’t stay up. I have to get up at 4:45 EST. First thing this morning, I was checking to see who won. It sucks to miss the best part of one of the best games in world series history…..totally sucks. I didn’t have a dog in the fight, I just enjoy a good game.

  4. DeniseVB says:

    Remember, at this time in 1980…..

  5. DeniseVB says:

    True story….

  6. Dora says:

    Only The Beginning

  7. taw46 says:

    The Globalists are still trying to stop Brexit. They won’t give up. Please UK, don’t let them win.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-high-court-legal-challenge-verdict-article-50-theresa-may-2016-11

  8. Lulu says:

    “black people are unlikely to turn out in record numbers the way they did for Obama.”
    When we stood in line to vote early last week there were about 400 people in line (I asked an election lady patrolling the line for violations what was her estimate and it had been that way all day every day) and 3, THREE, were black. Two were in a car, looked at the line, said they needed help and couldn’t get out of the car, had four people carry two electronic thingies to them and they voted. The other was a retired black school teacher I know. This early voting precinct is the only one for the county and is in a county owned building. The county is 16% black. That is horrible minority turnout. They are not going to bother for Hillary.

  9. DandyTIger says:

  10. Dora says:

    • dm says:

      This infuriates me as much as anything. Even when she’s not practicing her evil devil worship, the bitch is costing us millions of dollars…

  11. votermom says:

    Ok, so here is the list of Hillary campaign rallies. Many people say that this close to the election, where the top people go is where their internal polls are really telling them are on the edge.
    So Hillary seems to be playing defense EXCEPT for effing ARIZONA. What is up with that?
    Is Arizona really in play?

    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

  12. votermom says:

    Check out Hillary’s pic on drudge today

  13. Anthony says:

    Watch Kellyanne Conway make Whoopie Goldberg’s head explode. Then, she gets all the other co-hosts, harpie by harpie, one at a time. The only thing that upset me is that I just bought the exact same glasses that Whoopie is wearing, except that mine are Moldovite green (much cooler, actually)

  14. taw46 says:

  15. taw46 says:

    France, instead of traumatizing your children, why don’t you deport the invaders who are causing this? The government doesn’t even care about the little ones.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/728109/Shocking-terror-drills-children-play-dead-ISIS

  16. Ann says:

    Day 27…. supposedly heath stuff is today or tomorrow?

  17. Kathy says:

    Screw it..am going to go vote early anyway. Love this Trump surge, but afraid to be too happy.

  18. taw46 says:

  19. Dora says:

  20. Dora says:

    Some of the porn email info is here, if anyone is interested:

    http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/95886661

  21. helenk3 says:

    The television audience for Wednesday’s World Series Game 7 was nearly 40 million, making it the most-watched Series game in 25 years – Ad Week
    Read more on adweek.com

    • lateblum says:

      Isn’t that just the best??? to think 2 teams from flyover country garnered the greatest numbers in World Series history!
      Love it!

  22. blowme0bama says:

    Twitter is shadow banning me – or at least comments concerning prosecution of Clinton for child trafficking.

  23. John-Boy Cole:

    The best way I can compare my mood right now is the trash compactor scene in Star Wars, where I am living in a fetid world of Trump shit, while the walls are closing in, I have a sick sense of impending doom, and the media keeps grabbing me by the ankle trying to pull me under into the noxious shit and choke the life out of me. I have never been as horrified and terrified by an election in my life. I feel like I am on death row, and the preferred means of execution is force-feeding me puke and bile and racist, sexist shit.

  24. Dora says:

    Oh No. Please!

  25. taw46 says:

    Again, free speech for me but not for thee.

  26. mothy67 says:

    Best comment I have seen today

    Trump may have known a mob figure. Hillary is a mob figure.

  27. taw46 says:

  28. taw46 says:

    Watching Melania on TV. She is giving a speech in Berwyn PA.

  29. CiscoKid says:

    Democratic Party thugs at work, try to blame Trump supporters for this. imo
    http://www.guns.com/2016/11/03/historic-black-church-in-ms-set-on-fire-vandalized-video/

    • 49erDweet says:

      Wow. The crack in the face of the dam widens. A trickle appears. Time to sound the flooding alarms downstream!

    • lateblum says:

      I wonder why Joe reiterates that Obama “knew very little about” the goings on r/t the investigation. I’d bet obama knew full well what was going on and wanted to shut down the entire FBI investigatory process. (imho)

      • taw46 says:

        Agree with that. But he did say he was the most irresponsible and tried to influence an investigation.

        • lateblum says:

          Yes, the NYT did say obama was irresponsible in trying to influence an investigation ” . . . that he (obama) knew very little about.” I was just disagreeing with the notion put out there that obama knew very little about the evidence. I think that he had been party to the email process and was trying to cover his behind by getting “out in front” of the investigation.
          Maybe we are saying the same thing. I sometimes feel I am not very good in communicating my thoughts.

          • taw46 says:

            Oh, I agree. I believe Obama is behind all of the corruption in all of the agencies. DOJ, State, IRS, etc. They aren’t doing this on their own. Just hope one day they can prove it.

  30. CiscoKid says:

    Man the lifeboats!

Comments are closed.