Flashback: Why Trump Has No Hope Of Winning

10-donald-trump-debate.w529.h352 (1)


For a year and a half they told us that Trump could not win. But they weren’t talking about the popular vote.

No Amount of Working-Class Whites Can Win Trump the White House

An election is the ultimate numbers game. No matter how much the punditocracy talks about intangibles such as “momentum” and various bits of anecdotal evidence, in the end, it comes down to one simple question: can the candidate can get the votes? More specifically: can the candidate get the votes in the right states to win a majority in the Electoral College?

With Donald Trump poised to capture the Republican nomination, we hear a lot about intangibles, but there has been very little analysis of the numbers. And the more we dig into the numbers, the less likely it seems that Mr. Trump can actually win the general election in November.

[…]

But there are other numbers that should be even more troubling to supporters of Mr. Trump, and some of them have nothing to do with him, or with his merits or demerits as a candidate.

Let’s start with the Electoral College, which is how presidents are actually elected in the United States. Any Republican nominee would start out in a disadvantaged position in this all-important category.

To explain: there are 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, which have voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every single election since 1988. These states combine for 242 of the 270 electoral votes required to win the election. Republicans, conversely, have won only 13 states in each of the last six elections, and these states combine for just 101 electoral votes. Even if we add in 10 more states that may have voted Democratic once or twice during that span, but could now be considered solidly Republican, the GOP only gets to a starting position of 191 electors.

These starting positions mean that a Republican nominee either has to win nearly all of the swing states, or pick off one or more states that haven’t gone to the GOP since 1988 or earlier. A Democrat merely has to hold the states that have gone into the blue column over the last six elections and add Florida, or some combination of two or more swing states, perhaps Ohio and Virginia. The red team simply has a harder path to victory than the blue team does.

Certainly, there are a number of “blue states” which have been closer than others. It is by no means guaranteed that Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, with their combined 30 electoral votes, will always end up in the Democratic column, despite the fact that Pennsylvania has done so for six elections in a row and Wisconsin for seven. Both states were very close in 2000 and 2004, and neither state went to Barack Obama by landslide margins in 2012, though he did win each by more than five percentage points.

[…]

It is rightly said that nobody should ever say “never” in politics. Many liberals believed it impossible that Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush could be elected president, and they were wrong. Clearly, a significant segment of the electorate is angry and frustrated, and Mr. Trump’s message of shaking up the system has a certain appeal, particularly among white working-class Americans who feel they haven’t gotten a fair shake in a very long time.

But here’s the bottom line: there just aren’t enough “angry white men” out there to put Donald Trump in the White House. Unless he can reverse his horrible numbers among Latinos and women of all colors, and perform better than Republicans typically do among numerous other key demographics, Mr. Trump’s chances of victory in November can be rated unlikely at best.

Well, Trump didn’t do it their way. But he still won Florida. And North Carolina. And Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan.

They kept telling us that Trump was the most beatable candidate that ever ran for President, but nobody could beat him. If the Democrats had chosen to lose with grace and dignity, this wouldn’t be nearly as much fun.

OT: Is anybody else still watching Good Behavior with Michelle Dockery? It started off fun and funny, but now it’s just tawdry and depressing.

forum_3f0f495b_drunksanta

Advertisements

About Myiq2xu™

“Let’s be honest, the people who are currently outraged are the same people who have always been outraged.”
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

126 Responses to Flashback: Why Trump Has No Hope Of Winning

    • Jadzia says:

      Well, call me guilty because I have never blocked or unfriended somebody because of their obnoxious political views, but I did unfollow 75% of my FB friends in the months leading up to the election because my feed had turned into a nonstop hate-fest. I ended up with a feed that was almost exclusively composed of Minions memes and my one apolitical friend’s hilarious stories about her customer service job.

    • swanspirit says:

      A friend I know locally, unfriended me on FB. I can’t wait until I run into her around town. She is very active, locally. I can’t wait to tell her just about 70% of our county voted Trump, so she can wonder about all those folks she hobnobs and goes drinking with.

  1. swanspirit says:

    I watch it now out of curiosity, rather than interest. As soon as they involved her “child”, and dragged him into the garbage, I was put off. And now they have involved another child, and their families.,some of whom just seem to be caricatures. Definitely descending into distasteful.

    • 49erDweet says:

      Yeah, we watched 3.212 episodes and just turned to each other mid-show and said, “What…….?” and turned on something else. It’s built on caricatures, not characters. Illogical.

  2. DeniseVB says:

    I don’t know who is dumber: Michelle “hopeless” Obama or Lena “I wish I could have an abortion” Dunham ? Tough call, eh?

  3. Dora says:

    Happy Winter Everybody!

    Now it’s on to spring. Those crocuses will be blooming before you know it. 🙂

    • DeniseVB says:

      I guess I slept through it, sun is sure blasting through the windows now 😉

    • cynic says:

      I usually start getting most of my seed catalogs the week between Christmas & New Years, and January is spent dreaming of nonstop blooming gardens. This year will be different because of me watching two babies. There definitely won’t be time for all that germinating/transplanting in my basement in March & April. Letting the reseeders take over in my gardens this Spring could be a positive thing. Usually, I have to pull most of them out to make room for all the seedlings that I grew in my basement.

  4. So what is the over/under for how many days after the inauguration before Obama does his first “post-presidency” interview?

  5. I’m gonna lay down a marker and say there is more to the story.

  6. Venus says:

    I’m watching Good Behavior, but haven’t seen last night’s episode yet (busy doing Christmas stuff, but it’s on DVR).
    So I think I haven’t gotten to the tawdry & depressing yet — I still find it fun.

  7. votermom says:

    freebie

  8. helenk3 says:

    America not invited to Syrian talks in Moscow

    another one of backtrack’s legacies

  9. AFVet says:

    STICK IT SNOWFLAKES !!!!
    YOU LOST.

  10. CiscoKid says:

    Meanwhile while Austria plans to hand out rape whistles, approximately 6,000 according to Interior Ministry spokesman Karl-Heinz Grundboeck to women as New Years Eve approaches, people of Ohio are obtaining their own anti-rape devices.
    “474 concealed carry permits during the 3rd quarter of 2016, a “59 percent” increase over the number of permits issued during the same period in 2015.
    The total number of permits issued in the 3rd quarter 2015 was 16,000.”

    The Columbus Dispatch reports that 93,851 permits were issued during the first nine months of 2016, bringing the total number of Ohio concealed carry permits to 574,000. Attorney General Mike DeWine said this means the state has reached a point where “about one in 16 adults…has a concealed-carry permit.”

    • lateblum says:

      Good. Now they won’t appropriate the music of my youth and it is safe for another generation….

    • lateblum says:

      And BTW, I don’t recall the words: bitch, ho, c*nt, f*ck or multiple other disgusting words that I hear blasting out of car windows, being sung or used in the music I grew up with. Maybe wholesomeness is too suggestive to those snowflakes. Maybe they can’t deal with suggestion and only appreciate direct demands and name-calling.

      Unplugging for much of the day. Later, all……..

  11. swanspirit says:

    This. The Trump destroys everyone compilation.

  12. lyn says:

    Ah-so!

  13. lyn says:

    • CiscoKid says:

      From the Cornell Law University School .

      Libel is a method of defamation expressed by print, writing, pictures, signs, effigies, or any communication embodied in physical form that is injurious to a person’s reputation, exposes a person to public hatred, contempt or ridicule, or injures a person in his/her business or profession.
      I’m still not sure, but decisions have varied state to state.

      • Jadzia says:

        It is close to impossible for an all-purpose public figure (the quintessential example of which is POTUS) to win a defamation case. The burden of proof on the plaintiff is just really really high in those kinds of cases. Plus we’re talking about a POTUS-elect who just settled the Trump U. case, he says (and I believe him) because civil litigation is too much of a distraction from governance.

        That said, theoretically you could probably prove libel for that kind of statement based on the fact that it is a false/derogatory statement related to his ability to conduct his trade or business (Presidenting!). But on a practical level, no lawsuit.

        • CiscoKid says:

          I’d say, ignore it, it’s not going to stop and the best action is no reaction.

          • Jadzia says:

            On a similar note, I was browsing mytheresa.com this morning (for bags I can no longer afford thanks to my various family members’ woes) and Tom “Melania has cooties!!!” Ford’s stuff was almost all on super sale. Maybe it’s not so good for business to act like an ass!

  14. SHV says:

    FWIW:
    “AT&T Debuts ‘Call Protect’ Service to Protect Against Robocalls”
    http://www.macrumors.com/2016/12/21/att-call-protect-blocks-robocalls/

    I have installed the app but have no comment/opinion on how effective it is. My robo calls seem to run in cycles with periods of activity from various area codes, then nothing for a few days. Last year I getting multiple calls from Georgia, not the state of. Saipan is the distance record.

  15. helenk3 says:

    a little bit of bragging here. My youngest 5 years old great grandson as Joseph

  16. SHV says:

    A truck “crash” in Germany, a van “crash” in Austraila:
    “Van drove into Australian Christian Lobby’s Canberra headquarters and ‘exploded'”

    http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/van-drove-into-australian-christian-lobbys-canberra-headquarters-and-exploded-20161221-gtg6et.html

    • Jadzia says:

      Hard to tell, but it sounds like that group probably made some enemies other (in addition) to the folks who brought us the Berlin attacks.

      I saw a news story on the explosions in Mexico this morning and am just horrified. We had a mini-event like that in the town where I went to high school (it was like being inside a video game, quite terrifying) and looking at today’s news footage is really awful. Those poor people.

  17. helenk3 says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-21/the-u-s-is-now-a-country-that-can-be-ignored

    the US is now a country that can be ignored

    for all those dems who are whining and whinging and throwing temper tantrums because they lost , they gave backtrack and this is the result of his foreign policies. thanks for nothing

  18. helenk3 says:

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/obama-shock-another-6-billion-in-midnight-regulations/article/2610168
    $6 BILLION
    how soon until he is gone???????
    can’t he leave early please

  19. helenk3 says:

    Donald Trump to name billionaire investor Carl Icahn as a special adviser on overhauling federal regulations – Wall Street Journal
    Read more on http://www.wsj.com

  20. Dora says:

  21. votermom says:

    Snopes gets fact-checked

Comments are closed.