Occam’s Razor


LAist:

Sexual Assault Reporting In L.A.’s Latino Community Down 25% Amid Fears Of Immigration Enforcement

On Tuesday, LAPD Chief Charlie Beck said reporting of sexual assault and domestic violence by members of L.A.’s Latino community had dropped significantly during the first months of 2017, compared to last year.

According to Beck, sexual assault reporting by the Latino community is down 25% this year to date, a figure that “far exceeds the reductions of any other demographic group.” Beck also said that Latino reporting of domestic violence was down by 10% this year to date, a reduction that also outpaces any other demographic group. The drops are widely attributed to fear of immigration enforcement, with Beck calling them “an outlier, in that no other demographic group has been affected by this.”

“This is not a minor issue; this is the safety of the city,” Beck said.

“Imagine a young woman—imagine your daughter, sister, mother, your friend—not reporting a sexual assault because they are afraid that their family will be torn apart,” the police chief said, standing with Mayor Eric Garcetti at a press conference where Garcetti signed an executive directive barring L.A. police and civil servants from taking part in federal immigration enforcement activities. “That’s not what L.A. is about. That is certainly not what this mayor is about. And it’s not what the Los Angeles Police Department is about.”

“Today, hardworking, law-abiding immigrants are fearful for their safety and anxious about being targeted and having their families torn apart, and we understand why,” Garcetti said Tuesday. “Under this new administration, we are all seeing policies, executive orders and rhetoric that are divisive, mean-spirited and often unconstitutional. And we see this impact all across our city,” the mayor said, adding that the Lincoln Heights youth center where the press conference was held had itself seen a 34% drop in enrollment so far that year.

“We’re seeing similar declines at art centers, at parks, libraries, and senior centers around the city. We’re seeing less people reporting crimes. And we believe that many local families are keeping their kids home, and are backing off of engaging with our law enforcement officials and our public safety officials because they are afraid of what they believe could happen,” the mayor continued. “I want to be very clear on this, that is unacceptable in our Los Angeles.”

The greater Los Angeles area is home to an estimated 1 million undocumented individuals. Fears have certainly been heightened since November 9, and last month’s ICE sweeps, along with instances of ICE identifying themselves as police officers in Los Angeles, have not helped.

According to Garcetti, nearly two out of every three Angelenos are either immigrants, or the children of immigrants, and 1.5 million residents of the city are foreign born. “Immigrants make us proud, win victories, start businesses, graduate, and make our city strong,” Garcetti said. “And yet for too many of our sisters and brothers in immigrant communities today, this is a time of great trepidation.”

Chief Beck explained that community policing is based on two things: partnership with the community, and a relationship with the people of the community. “Those things,” Beck said, “are not sustained when a police department knocks on a front door to get witness information or to talk to a victim and people run out the back door. And that is what we fear the most is happening in the city.”


Back in the 14th Century a Franciscan friar named William of Ockham gave us this principle of logic:

Occam’s razor (or Ockham’s razor) is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exist two explanations for an occurrence. In this case, the simpler one is usually better. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is. Occam’s razor applies especially in the philosophy of science, but also more generally.


According to Occam’s Razor, a drop in crime reporting is most likely due to a drop in crime.

This is not the same as proof. But proof requires evidence. If you read that article carefully you will not see one scintilla of evidence presented to support the theory that Latino crime victims are not reporting sexual assaults because they are afraid of deportation. You are presented with a single fact – that reporting of sexual assaults in the Latino community is down 25%. Apparently it is down in all demographic groups.

This story is #fakenews.


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About Myiq2xu™

“Let’s be honest, the people who are currently outraged are the same people who have always been outraged.”
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132 Responses to Occam’s Razor

  1. Dora says:

    Could be very interesting.

    ==

    TODAY – MUST WATCH LIVE ALERT!

    Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton to Testify Before the House Committee On Oversight and Government Reform

    Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton will provide testimony on Thursday, March 23 at 9:00 AM before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform during a hearing titled “Legislative Proposals for Fostering Transparency.” The committee is chaired by Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT). .

    You can watch LIVE on the Judicial Watch website and the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform website.

    http://www.judicialwatch.org/live/

    https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/legislative-proposals-fostering-transparency/

  2. Democrats would have us believe that none of the rapists and abusers were immigrants. Just the victims. Because immigrants don’t commit crime.

    • Rape, like most crimes, is usually committed within the perpetrator’s own ethnic and social class/group.

    • taw46 says:

      So their position is, illegals aren’t reporting sexual assault and domestic violence for fear of being deported. So if we don’t deport them, and we allow more illegals in, we will still have sexual assault and domestic violence, but at least they will report it. Got it.

    • 49erDweet says:

      I look at the scenario as more of a chance for Charlie Beck to solidify his acceptance as LACoP in their Hispanic community. ‘Cause he’s more for ’em than agin ’em. He’s wobbly.

  3. Jake looks really unhappy.

    • taw46 says:

      They are so hellbent on defending Obama, that they are not the least bit curious about possibility of a sitting President having an incoming President under surveillance. Which of course would be a scandal of epic proportions. Not at all interested in tracking down that story.

    • Lulu says:

      FISA Court used to gather gossip. Federal intelligence agencies used to “unmask” political opponents and their families to pass along tittle-tattle, personal information, health information, business intel, financial data, etc. If they have all this time to do this shit they need their budgets cut to the bone. And if they will obey any order, request, hint that comes out of a White House or DOJ they need their stupid asses in jail. Since several congressmen were on the transition team they can expect their personal business passed around like the little brown jug too. And of course they “surveilled” the Congress too and are probably still doing it to try to cover their asses.

    • Constance says:

      That miserable Jake face is his normal face since Trump won. At some point you would think CNN and MSNBC would stop with the crazy so they could stay in business. Of course so long as consumers can’t have a la carte cable stations like CNN and MSNBC will live on.

    • Somebody says:

      I’ve seen several similar tweets from Joe trying to throw cold water on this whole whistle-blower story. Joe doth protest too much methinks, his file must be a doozy!

      Ditto for John McCain and several others. I’d say this administration is close to the target based on the incoming. Looks like POTUS has his team zeroing in their sights about now.

    • blowme0bama says:

      Yes, all this hair on fire bullshit – what is it, specifically, that Nunes did that was wrong? I mean other than embarrass Obama?

    • Mary says:

      Better suggestion: ignore and shun Joe Scarborough.

  4. helenk3 says:

    how safe is your child?

    • lateblum says:

      When I first began teaching in the CPS, I was very young and looked even younger. The “seasoned” teachers thought they were helping me when they took me aside, and “taught” me how to inflict physical damage on students to “keep them in line” without leaving marks. I still shudder in horror when I think of that. I taught 4th grade in an inner-city grammar school. The students and most of the teachers were AA. All the teachers who “showed” me how to discipline those kids were all tenured and black. They knew all the tricks of the trade. I wanted to have them arrested. But, coward that I am, I did nothing. I also did not ever employ their techniques.

  5. DeniseVB says:

    True.

  6. Dora says:

  7. Dora says:

    OMG. I thought he was on an island all by himself.

    • votermom says:

      Aren’t transgenders homophobic? They can’t accept their own gender, after all.

    • swanspirit says:

      “Some women have penises”. No. No they don’t Men who want to think they are women do.

      • CiscoKid says:

        Perfect!

      • Constance says:

        Women and girls have zero Y chromosomes. I don’t know what Y chromosomed people who want to be female are but they need to come up with their own term.

        • John Denney says:

          One of the former Popes stated that a man who had undergone sex change surgery was nothing more than a mutilated man.

      • mothy67 says:

        I don’t think the LGBTQ coalition is a real thing outside of those profiteering. Once gay marriage was made legal the groups collecting hundreds of millions for their cause need justification to exist. Really the SJW’s have over played the phobia spiel. It’s an irrational fear. I do not fear men who think they are women. I don’t care what an adult does. Leave children out of it. No group speaks for me.

  8. DeniseVB says:

    Journalism.

    • Mary says:

      They don’t even understand that they’ve lost all credibility with the public. Stunning, really!

      • 49erDweet says:

        They run in tight little circles, exposing themselves mostly to group-think. Most would be surprised an alternative reasonable explanation – other than insanity- existed.

  9. elliesmom says:

    I stopped reading when I got to “law abiding immigrants”. When a person crosses our border illegally or overstays a visa, they aren’t law abiding. People who are following our immigration laws don’t have to worry about being deported if they report a crime. The first line of the fourth paragraph negates the whole issue.

  10. votermom says:

  11. DeniseVB says:

    They’re not even trying anymore to conceal their fakiness.

  12. DeniseVB says:

    This photo’s going viral, also appearing in many photoshopped memes. Would love to know the story behind it since I’m sure she’s been identified by now?

    • taw46 says:

      I do not like Islam and I agree the optics are bad. But to be fair, I have seen a few other photos of people walking past the carnage. So I will pass on this one. I can’t judge those who did not stop, maybe they were in shock, maybe they didn’t care, maybe they were afraid. She wasn’t the only one.

      • votermom says:

        You’re a better person than me. My “benefit of the doubt” supply is all out.

        • lyn says:

          Looking at one’s smart phone is bad optics. At least she could have passed the carnage with a concerned look on her face. I probably would have puked if I were there.

      • DeniseVB says:

        I would have walked passed too since I’m in no way qualified to help injured people, also would probably be in shock, even not knowing at the time if it was terrorism or a drunk driver.

        • Miranda says:

          Years ago, I was on my way to pick up Mom to take her to chemo. While I was stopped at a red light, a homeless guy crossed the street in front of my car and collapsed on the sidewalk. I spoke to him through the window and asked if I should call 911. He waved me on, but I called them anyway, gave the intersection and described the situation. I also told the dispatcher that I needed to leave the scene and gave him my contact information. Then, I went on to my Mom’s because beyond calling the authorities there was nothing else I could do for the guy.

      • jenlyntx says:

        No excuse. And she should rip that stupid towel off her head to support the victims and say FU to Islam. Enough is more than enough. Even though Offal and Mrs. Offal say that Islam is a loving religion we ALL know that loving is code word for KILL THE INFIDEL. FU Islam. FU ALLAH. FU OBAMA.

    • Miranda says:

      It’s bad optics as someone else said, but if the person is being helped and the woman on the phone has no medical training, there’s nothing for her to do. Also, we have no context for her action. We don’t know what she was doing before or after the picture. Maybe her Mom called to check on her, and she’s telling her Mom that she’s ok.

      • taw46 says:

        That’s right, it is just one snap. I looked at the photo, it is by Rex Features. If you go to their website, look at the Westminister photos, you will find a series of photos of her. A couple do show her looking up, not at her phone, and she does look distraught. Sorry, don’t know how to bring it over here or I would.

      • Constance says:

        My gut reaction is she was there to document the situation for whatever group controlled the guy who carried out the attack. The thing is with suicide attackers they could be being blackmailed or controlled by threats to their families if they don’t cooperate and carry out the attack.

  13. taw46 says:

  14. taw46 says:

    Sad, sad, sad. They were celebrating their 25th anniversary. I am so tired of reading about these victims, and the politicians are more concerned about the Muslim community’s feelings.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4342450/American-named-victim-London-terror-attack.html

    • dm says:

      My daughter has been trying to put together a trip to France to visit a friend. Needless to say, I have been super concerned about this. When I spoke to her last week, it sounded like it wasn’t going to happen. My daughter just started a new job and trying to coordinate vacation time with her friend wasn’t going well…I secretly was saying YEAH! There is so much crap that goes on in most of these country’s that is never even reported here…I’ve expressed my concern, but of course, she just blows it all off…she’s young, liberal, and invincible…and unfortunately, still quite naive.

  15. Dora says:

    • CiscoKid says:

      A big F**K them and their “deal”.
      Let them filibuster the next nominee and they will keep on doing it for all.
      The they’ll ask, reach across the aisle and accept our nominee.
      We have the numbers to have Gorsuch be confirmed, EF’ the Dem’s. 🖕

    • dm says:

      This story about a SS agent stinks to high heaven, much like all the other stories I’ve read about this agency for the past couple of months…this group is either incredibly incompetent or infiltrated and compromised.

    • CiscoKid says:

      Well I certainly do now.
      At first I thought the backpack was IN a vehicle of some sort.
      But it was on a motorcycle?
      I’m quite certain that she had to sign for the laptop acknowledging she received it and is responsible for it. Responsible. Investigation please.
      This is no radom theft.

    • CiscoKid says:

      Absolutely.
      The taxaholics in Cook County are looking around and asking, why is everyone leaving?
      7 cent tax on plastic bags, 1cent tax per ounce on soft drinks.
      Ammunition is taxed at 5 cents or more depending on caliber.
      Indiana and Michigan now get business that Illinois, Cook County and Chicago drives away by runaway taxation.

  16. Dora says:

    There must be some way to blame this on Trump!

  17. taw46 says:

  18. taw46 says:

    Missing Missy here she is, with words of wisdom.

  19. taw46 says:

  20. CiscoKid says:

    In a life or death situation a firearm may not be the only solution but it’s sure handy to have till you think of something better, imo.

    • Constance says:

      When seconds count the cops are only minutes away.
      How ridiculous that UK cops aren’t armed! And their citizens can’t have firearms to protect themselves. Notice the area around the government buildings is defended with serious weapons. And of course the bad guys usually have them.

  21. mothy67 says:

    I get a kick out of the above article pointing out illegals are not using free shit paid for by taxpayer out of fear. There was an article the other day about a drop in applications for welfare benefits from the Swamp Compost written as if it were a bad thing???? All aid to Mexico should by applied to wall as we are providing billions to her citizens on our soil.

    • Lulu says:

      I think THAT is exactly what Trump was talking about when he said Mexico would pay for the wall. He did NOT say how. And cutting the public money paid to Mexican nationals inside of the US, their ability to earn wages, or drug money obtained in the US, ALL of which leaves the US to go to Mexico or provides for their citizens in the US, IS a way the wall can be financed. That informally is known as “taking it out of their hide” which is the harshest way to do get your money back.

  22. Dora says:

  23. mothy67 says:

    I thank God the pup got an E on a test because Huntington Learning Center tested her for 3 hours and although she was getting straight A’s she had serious deficits. So glad I caught it now. It’s 45/hr. Thus far she bas scored 100% on everything. Her focus changed. The school also was put on notice as her academic records were forwarded. 5th grade A students don’t often get tutoring. It’s a luxury. Why God made great gay uncles.
    I feel for the teachers. They are inundated. Class of 17 with 4 not being native speakers another goes back and forth to the county disciplinary school, two are on spectrum another has that extreme fear of noise and until two years ago most of that did not exist. They are not acclimated as are the larger districts. Add to that full implementation of common core.
    Point is all the liberal do-gooders I know welcomed invaders without thought to cost. How little common sense does it take to see that an invasion takes a toll?
    How difficult is it to grasp that dropping off dozens of single young men with no skills, illiterate, poor English, no dating prospects, no employment are going to adjust poorly. Seems to me they are given a stipend and left to their own devices. Dims seem to think the answer to everything is money.

    People are waking up. Our children are paying the price for progressive (immature) utopian fantasies. That little girl in Maryland is forever scarred. Had the law been followed she would not have been raped.

    • CiscoKid says:

      Forever scared is absolutely correct.
      The only consolation is that she’s alive, not raped and murdered.
      Slim at best, being alive that is.
      I always ask the question, how many more lives have to be sacrificed on the altar of open borders?

  24. Dora says:

    And all this time I thought it was due to high sugar. Silly me.

    • CiscoKid says:

      Some might think that to strong.
      Let’s see.
      Donaldus beat the corrupt media, you know, the same ones that have given the President 90% negative reporting in just a few months into his Administration.
      The same media that donated , what’s the numbers, 80% to the Clinton campaign.
      He beat HRC after DNC successfully plotted to have Sanders lose the nomination to HRC.
      Beat her during the debates after she was given the questions. I believe more than once.
      Then in the election Trump beat the corrupt Democratic apparatus, true voter fraud with illegal aliens voting.
      Thankfully the Electoral College dismissed the death threats and voted to make Trump the 45th President of the United States.
      He overcame serious odds.
      We the People overcame.
      So far, so good.

    • mothy67 says:

      Ryan Is not aging well. Four years ago they were selling him a young blue eyed wunderkind.
      He looks exhausted

      • dm says:

        I was just laughing about how exhausted they must all be trying to keep up with Trump…the Congress, the press, the pundits…whew, I bet he is soooo tired.

  25. Dora says:

    He’s my senator, but I swear I had nothing to do with it.

    ==

    Schumer says Dems will filibuster Gorsuch

    Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer said Thursday that Democrats will attempt to filibuster Judge Neil Gorsuch’s nomination, saying he would tilt the Supreme Court too far away from what Democrats want to see.

    http://linkis.com/washingtontimes.com/PIo0t

    • lyn says:

      Elections have consequences, Democrat bitches.

      • mothy67 says:

        My Senator casey is amomg those. Dims tend to stay home off year elections. Trump won PA. He offset the cheating in Philly. I pray casey gets trounced. He was elected because of his dad and moderate positions. He swung hard core left. Especially regarding guns. Rethugs need to get a working as he is vulnerable. Need a household name that will capture what the Donald did.

  26. lyn says:

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bob-woodward-obama-officials-possibly-facing-criminal-charges-for-unmasking-scheme/article/2618185#.WNQfILomAI8.twitter

    The Washington Post’s Bob Woodward warned on Wednesday that there are people from the Obama administration who could be facing criminal charges for unmasking the names of Trump transition team members from surveillance of foreign officials.

    House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., said earlier that he had briefed Trump on new information, unrelated to an investigation into Russian activities, that suggested that several members of Trump’s transition team and perhaps Trump himself had their identities “unmasked” after their communications were intercepted by U.S. intelligence officials.

    The revelation is notable because identities of Americans are generally supposed to remain “masked” if American communications are swept up during surveillance of foreign individuals.

  27. taw46 says:

  28. mothy67 says:

    So a piece on local news about slow routers. A few days later internet slows down and then an offer to upgrade it in the mail. Hmmmmmm?
    So manufactured news? We have four laptops, tablets, phones, smart tv’s, and 2 desktops. Router likely needs an upgrade being 3 years old but they want another 9.99/mo to upgrade. New customers get it included. My parents both use included email so changing providers would mean porting and they are reluctant (my. Dad had never been on a computer until his coma. He was bored. Laptop and he are inseparable. I knew I had to have him engage. He is all over Facebook. It’s profound. His breathing is related to his stress. He is on computer and he forgets about breathing. Relaxes). I can buy a better router from Fios, switch to Comcast, threaten to switch, or buy a router on my own. I am leaning towards buying a router from Amazon I have no clue as to how to buy a router. I already pay for top speed. Maybe 5 things are going at one time. I’d rather buy something good if not best than pay 10 more a month to a cable company that forces me to pay for CNN.
    Cable companies are always trying to squeeze you. Three years ago they wanted to charge 48 a month for equipment for 4 rooms. Fuck that Netflix, hulu and Prime. Now almost all channels have an app as long as you have cable. No need for extra equipment. You just sign in with cable provider. My contract is up in April . Already pisses me off that I pay money to channels I do not watch and do not want. The spanish language channels collectively get about 50 cents a month from each of us. HGTV is the only reason I subscribe. Espn gets like 75 cents. Big hockey fan. Local teams are broadcast. I have to pay for fake news.
    I would drop cable and pay 20 more a month for high speed if I could just get HGTV.
    Any suggestion on router?

    • lateblum says:

      I looked into routers a year ago. I think I looked at consumer reports and on amszon for recommendations. I need to look again.. I also have to look at cancelling Comcast. They want to charge me a bazillion dollars. So I need suggestions for what to do as well.
      I’m not home now. When I get there, I’ll look for links.
      .

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