How are you holding up? I’m good. Tense and in pain from my tooth, but good (root canal tomorrow). Things are looking good in 2020 about like they were in 2016, and if Donald J. Trump can win 2 elections out of one script, I’ll laugh my ass off all the way to 2024.
But, things are not that simple. It will be a Red wave, because apparently about 75% of Dem likely voters have cast ballots. Early and absentee voting has caused the surpassing of the 2016 vote entirely in multiple states. I’ve seen MAGAs console themselves with visions of Trump’s rallies, but I remember Red Rocks in 2012. I remember 2012. Romney had every reason to be hopeful, but then the Obama campaign turned Cleveland out like a gangbangers does a whore, and the election was over by 11 pm.
In 2020, Trump’s path to reelection looks much like it did in 2016. The media and pollsters have definitely colluded to tamp down expectations and manufacture reality, just like they did in 2016. After the 2nd (third scheduled) debate, the betting odds on RealClearPolitics shot up for Trump to 40%, when they had been hovering in the low thirties. The reality creators there quickly jumped on it to tamp it down, and it dropped. I’ve been watching it and it sprung up 3.5 points overnight last night. That’s the swing percentage, which includes the shy Trump voter. Add 3.5 to the final poll provision, and that’s the area where we will likely land. Biden is up 2.3 in the average on battleground states, which are really what matters today.
Speaking of swings, what about that 7 point swing in Iowa Sunday? Yeah, that’s a preference cascade dropping. There have been others, including Gen X rappers who have since converted some rappers in their 30s. Trump’s pathway has always been through swing states and that is true today. He counted on 5 in 2016 and the media is telling you he needs 9 now, but don’t believe it. This all comes down to the swing states in Eastern and Central Time Zones.
This is an election like never before. Covid-19 changed the game entirely. My hope is that enough people just want to get back to normal, and enough just want to reject outright the violence and coercion we’ve seen this entire election year. But we don’t know, and the big unknowable is the influence of social media and the ability of the average American to think and act for themselves and reject coercion and control. These are, btw, the same words they use in Domestic Violence service arrays, for the record.
We’ll find out today if Americans can be beaten into submission. It will definitely be a red wave today, since Republicans prefer to vote in person, but will it be enough to conquer the strains of evil that have colonized our country in order to defeat it? Tune in and find out this evening!