TAPPED:
Today in SAT Prep: Romney Is to Clinton as Perry Is to Obama
Today, still 14 months out from the Republican National Convention, some journalists remain wary of thinking the race could be over so soon despite Rick Perry’s impressive polling. Amy Gardner at the Washington Post wrote yesterday that “Republicans are still shopping for a presidential nominee” and Ken Rudin argued on his NPR blog that the 1972 primaries provide historical evidence that all candidates should be considered viable nominees, especially this early in the game. However, we don’t need to go back decades to show that predictions of Perry winning the nomination are not necessarily premature; we only need to go back to the last presidential election.
At first glance, it seems the 2008 Democratic primaries prove exactly the opposite: Clinton was a frontrunner, and Perry is the current frontrunner, so isn’t it logical to assume that Romney or a new candidate could still win the primaries? Not exactly. Rick Perry is polling ahead for the same reason Obama eventually won his party’s nomination.
In September 2007, Hillary Clinton’s eventual nomination to be the Democratic candidate for the 2008 presidential election seemed like a no-brainer. Clinton had bested her rivals in the polls and the punditry for months. In the futures markets, Clinton was leading Obama by as much as 55 points. The Economist wondered: “Can Hillary be stopped? It’s looking less likely by the day.” Even George W. Bush predicted that Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. But, by the beginning of election year, Obama and Clinton were in a dead heat. He scored endorsements from Oprah, John Kerry and Andrew Sullivan, raised a record $32 million in January 2008 and had his significant victory in the Iowa caucus.
The reason Obama beat Clinton in 2008 is because independent and moderate voters — the bread and butter of general elections — are mostly irrelevant in primary elections where passionate partisans drive decision-making. Obama looked like the best candidate to liberal Democrats in 2008—in part because of his long-standing opposition to the Iraq War—and those are the voters who matter most in the primaries for both parties. The same fundamentals are working to push Perry to the forefront now. Tea Partiers —the most vocal contributors in the primaries—find the ‘ponzi scheme’ Perry more attractive than his more moderate rival, just as Clinton couldn’t compete with the passionate rhetoric that liberals craved, and Obama offered, after eight years of Bush.
I realize it may get tedious, but I’m gonna keep correcting attempts to rewrite history.
Obama raised $99 million in 2007 from Wall Street bankers, health insurance company executives, oil company executives, energy company executives, and lots of other big money special interests. That’s more money than all the other Democratic candidates except Hillary raised combined. That’s an amazing sum for a freshman senator with no significant accomplishments in his entire life.
Obama was running a distant third for most of 2007 and didn’t move into real contention until late in the year. Then in January 2008 he won the undemocratic Iowa caucuses. The media spent several days singing “Ding-dong, the witch is dead.”
Then a funny thing happened. Hillary came from behind to win the New Hampshire primary. Shock and dismay rock the Obama camp. Allegations of cheating and racism abound.
On January 15, 2008 the State of Michigan held a primary as authorized by its state legislature but in violation of Democratic party rules. The media refused to call it a primary and instead referred to it as a “beauty contest.” Hillary Clinton won easily, due in part to Obama’s decision to remove his name from the ballot. Despite the fact that his name wasn’t on the ballot the Rules and Bylaws committee would later award Obama nearly half of Michigan’s pledged delegates.
On January 19th the Nevada Caucuses were held. Hillary got more votes but due to rules that gave more weight to some districts than others, Obama won more delegates.
Next came the South Carolina primary on January 25th. Rarely mentioned is the fact that approximately 65% of the Democratic voters in South Carolina are African American. In the weeks prior to the primary the Obama campaign (through surrogates) played the race card on Bill and Hillary. Obama won 98% of the SC African American vote and won the primary.
On January 29, 2008 the State of Florida held a primary as authorized by its state legislature but in violation of Democratic party rules. The media refused to call it a primary and instead referred to it as a “beauty contest.” Hillary Clinton won easily with 50% of the vote to Obama’s 33% (Edwards got 14%.) The Rules and Bylaws committee would later reduce Florida’s delegate count in half, reducing the effect of Hillary’s victory.
Then came Super Duper Tuesday on February 5th. Twenty-three states and territories participated. Hillary won Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The media declared Obama the winner and spent the rest of the month singing “Ding-dong, the witch is dead.”
Despite the assertions by the Obama campaign and the media (but I repeat myself) that Obama was the “inevitable” nominee, Hillary refused to quit the race. Then beginning on March 4th she won primaries in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico and South Dakota.
At the end of the primaries Hillary had won more votes than Obama. In fact, she won more votes than any Democrat in any primary campaign ever. Thanks to the Rules and Bylaws committee ruling on May 31st, Obama had a narrow lead in pledged delegates. Neither candidate had enough pledged delegates to win the nomination.
Obama became the nominee because of the super-delegates – the Democratic party establishment. They had secretly urged Obama to run and had promised to endorse him even while some of them were publicly endorsing Hillary. Hillary won the West Virginia primary by 41 points and the following day both WV senators (Byrd and Rockefeller) endorsed Obama.
As for Obama’s “long-standing opposition to the Iraq War,” that was a fairy tale.
Hate to quibble with Jaime Fuller but I think a more apt SAT prep would say “Romney is to Kerry as Perry is to Howard Dean”.
And I would vote for Romney,Kerry, Perry and Dean over Obama. Just keeping my eye on the ball 😛
Dean, yes!
Kerry, Perry, Cottontail, and Peter … dunno.
Woops, was that racist?
i agree
My first thought on seeing the comparison is that Fuller is saying that Perry is all talk and Romney is the competent one.
That was my first thought too! LOL Great minds.
yeah this is my impression of them
It took me a minute to get this one:
Not much of a Happy Days fan here, but I got it right away. Not sure what that says about me and not sure that I want to find out.
My answer to those sorts of questions: drink more.
myiq said:” I realize it may get tedious, but I’m gonna keep correcting attempts to rewrite history.”
It is an unforgiving dirty, ugly job, but somebody has to do it.
I’m glad he does. even though every time I remember I get mad again.
me too!
Honk, honk!!
What he said.
Gotta keep banging this drum about the truth regarding the 08 dem primaries — thx miq
2008 was the first “social networking” prez election. We won’t be caught unawares this time re the astro-turfing, the journo-listing, and the conflicts of interest.
What she said 🙂
in states where there were caucus votes the thugs swarmed and intimidated and threatened and cheated to get backtrack the votes.
Then the DNC decided that the rules did not count anymore and gave backtrack the nomination.
I will never forget or forgive
unemployment needs to start in DC asap
Pa wants to change electoral votes by congressional district award rather than winner take all.
http://www.politicspa.com/capitolwire-pileggi-wants-to-change-pa-electoral-process/27552/
I’m not sure what I think about that. Hm.
It could change a lot of outcomes. The cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh usually vote democratic but a lot of the other counties vote republican.
unemployment needs to start in DC asap
What is means is that PA will lose millions because it won’t be worth candidates going there for a 2-3 EV difference.
I am a proponent of the National Popular Vote, which would ensure that the presidential candidate who had the most votes would become president. They just reached the half way mark in making it the law of the land. They seem to think that the congressional district award is a move in the wrong direction. http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/pages/misc/hl_20070909_worseplans.php
I’m opposed to a national popular vote. It flies in the face of Federalism, and ensures that the only real voice in the country belongs to the most populous states.
Sorry, but I don’t want LA, NY, Philly and Chicago deciding the entire fate of the nation. The constitution set up the state electoral college system for a reason.
myiq — thank you so much for persevering. It sucks to have to keep doing it but it is a tremendous service to us all.
I will NEVER forget that history.
This is kind of funny: “Rick Perry’s impressive polling.” We are such an instant gratification culture. Perry has been running for prez for exactly 30 days now, and the last two weeks have been pretty shaky for him. The election is still 14 months away.
If you need a giggle…..Shelby Fluffy video!
This is the reason I will not forgive the Democratic Party. I will never vote for Obama, but he’s not I blame the most for the disaster the country is in. The party did not care about the American people. To put an inexperienced, unaccomplished man to lead us out of the morass is what the opposition does.
The Superdelegates were our only chance to override Obama’s Red State caucuses, RBC, etc. Hope they will do a better job next time.
The Democratic establishment was Rules/Bylaws Committee, Pelosi, etc. They were bought or deceived, and Obama can do it again.
There were 700+ Superdelegates. You can’t fool all 700 all the time.
Hey fellow Twits, check it out….
http://twitter.com/#!/BarackObama/status/113712807014449152
click on the hashtag #attackwatch people are having FUN with it 😀
This is authoritarian creepy. The thought police are setting up. Are they the KGB or Stasi?
Amazing. The stream is loading a couple of tweets every second, and I haven’t seen one in support of BO. Think it’s backfiring. 🙂
😆
“Watch out, monthly jobless report. @Attackwatch is onto you.”
Great comedy. Thanks for the heads up.
A rare find indeed. So they’re not extinct.
Love this one:
LiberalBoobs: #attackwatch Omg! There’s a crazy illegal alien driving drunk on the wrong side of the road! Oh. Wait. It’s Uncle Omar. My bad.
And this one:
Va_Lawgal: Can you follow the #Attackwatch timeline in the original German….?
This is a riot.
Ja. Ist gut.
Bier ist gut
Ja.
Best:
deregulator: Obama: the competence of Carter, the paranoia of Nixon. #AttackWatch #fail #tcot
If Obama had the competence of Carter, I’d vote for him.
http://www.forbes.com/2004/07/20/cx_da_0720presidents.html
Ouch:
southrngirl77: I heard someone say, “If they bring a #Knife, you bring a #Gun”. Thought u should know. #AttackWatch
@Independent60: If you see anything, report it Fast and Furiously to #attackwatch
@gregmcrc: #AttackWatch..check this = 9% unemployment, no green jobs, 49 million uninsured, 1 in 6 Americans in poverty
BillMCyrus: Dear #AttackWatch, someone has been vandalizing my investment accounts. Every time they make a public speech, money vanishes.
FatherKingsbury: Attention!! Some hater just said that Van Jones was the “Green Czar” during the Solyndra LLC scandal! Oh? Wait. Never mind. #attackwatch
@TaurusP247
Dear #attackwatch: Orwell’s 1984 was a cautionary tale, not an instruction manual.
That reminds me that one of the books Barry bought while on his Martha’s Vineyard vacay was 1984. And then we get this.
I literally LOL’d at this one:
Dear #attackwatch ~ People keep saying Obama is a Keynesian, even though he was totally born in Hawaii!
I think the outrageous comedy over at #AttachWatch set up by Obama zombies, er. campaign staff, is very telling. The tied has turned on the social networking president.
It’s a big all caps headline on Drudge now. The world can ridicule.
😀
http://twitter.com/#!/iowahawkblog/status/113795943672971264
Might be a winner.
Snicker, snort. Ridicule means it is almost over. O cannot come back from being a joke.
Vladimir Putin, Action Man This was popular today. Some voicing concern he’s waiting for Europe to come apart.
This is not a lazy dude. Scary yes, lazy layabout no. And historically speaking Europe comes apart about every 50 to 100 years so they are about due. With the choices made since WWII economically they are looking at some major upheaval with hopefully a minimum of violence.
What Americans are saying are not smears.
Ah, you must be using the old American English Dictionary. That’s verboten. You must use the new Obama is the One English Dictionary. get with the program. Or else.
True story.
Daily Show preview of their 09/13/01 commemoration. I have no clue if this will work or not 🙂
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-september-12-2011/coming-soon—the-daily-show-remembers-9-13-2001?xrs=share_copy
#AttachWatch is better than shark week. True story.
My money is on iowahawk for the winning tweet
Evil hippie guitarists.
Giving drug Lords all the guitars and hippies all the guns would be safer for everyone.
Can you imagine all the innocent victims if those hippies ever tried shooting though. They would never hit what they were firing at.
True Story.
IBSP
Absolutely
Singing and strumming La Cucaracha and crowds smoking Camel cigarettes.
Iowahawk is, beyond a doubt, the best satirist on the web.
myiq – THANKS THANKS THANKS – very excellent description of the real
historyherstory of Hillary’s run! I get so tired of news accounts saying he ran a superior campaign and she ran a poor campaign, so he won, the end. Never any mention of the truth of how they ran their campaigns (cheating is not “superior”), and never any truth about how step by step they did all they could to steal it from Hillary. So thanks again!(although I would have been more specific about those MI delegates given to Obama – which were against the rules, as those votes for “uncommitted” couldn’t be given to anyone else, and about how they actually gave a bunch of HILLARY’S delegates to him, which was DEFINITELY against the rules. Still burns me up!)
OT: Ahhhh, those intelligent, civil, non-hating progressives at the Big Cheeto. Re: the NY-9 election tonight:
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1016659/43297271#c198
That’s no minor troll, either. SoCalLiberal is a well known poster there, been there for years.
That’s stunning. Wasn’t there just a post recently from the big orange head himself about how he’d ban anyone peddling even a hint of racism….
Silly Dandy. That’s only for racism/sexism/antisemitism aimed at people or candidates they like.
Republicans, Independents, whatever, are fair game to be called lawn jockeys, cunts, and filthy Jooooooooos.
The Democratic Party sells more indulgences to get yer hate on than Pope Pious ever did.
Democrats should put up an Emmanuel Goldstein website with a list of everybody it’s okay to hate.
Well at least he’s admitting to it. They are the bigots and racists they’ve been waiting for. It’s always like that with self-loathing elitists.
Since the Republican won the special in NV-2, wonder if they hate Hispanics?
SoCalAnti-Semite can spin it all he/she wants. It isn’t Hassidim’s fault the seat went to the GOP candidate. It’s all on OBAMA.
@DLoesch: Erections have consequences! #NY09
LOL! This wasn’t just disgust with Weiner, though, or that Walperin was a weak candidate. It shouldn’t have mattered.
NY 9 has been a Democratic lock since the 19 freaking 20’s. Any way you slice it, this is REFUDIATION of Obama.
Wiener’s constituents wanted him to stay in Congress and the Dems forced him out. That didn’t help.
I’m laughing my ass off because a few idiots on DU are now claiming that NY 9 was “not really a deep blue district”
ROTFL! Yeah, because not electing a single Republican in NINETY FUCKING YEARS is not solidly Dem at all. Why, it’s practically a reliably toss-up district!
They cannot admit that their messiah is doing exactly what we said he would, starting 4 years ago: Destroy the Democratic party.
Just goes to show there’s no cure for stupid.
Obama’s favorability in the district went from 60% in 2008 to 38% today. Pretty sure this was a referendum on Obama. 🙂
Slightly different numbers.
It’s REFUDIATION of Obama AND the Democratic Party that forced out Wiener. They know that Wiener had been critical of Obama and that didn’t endear him to the WH.
It’s a great day for the bitter knitters. Our numbers keep growing.
Hope you’re right. Weiner was a good Hillary supporter. What did Wepern have to say about Weiner?
Human Nature post — If I were running for office I’d answer that question thus: There are two possibilities with someone who doesn’t have health insurance. A. The person doesn’t have a job and/or the employer doesn’t provide health care and no money. Sure the state picks up the tab. B. The person doesn’t have health insurance because he’s self employed, but has money and assets. Give the person medical care and bill him.
Republicans just won’t admit what is wrong with our health care system. It’s broken and Obama made institutionalized the worst part of the system.
Great answer.
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